Take this with a grain of salt but the NWS 3 month outlook for A-M-J has above average precip across the entire Midwest, with even a darker shade of green indicating elevated probabilities of wetness.
After the excessive wetness of 2019, the market will be more sensitive to a forecast with heavy rains than in most years.
Been trying to catch up on grain weather and just realized something......KS had been getting pretty dry, with maybe 20% of the state actually being in drought but they just got bombed with widespread 1-2 inch rains.
The next 2 weeks look pretty wet everywhere, so dryness will definitely not be an issue to the market in March and probably not in April.
Too much rain, if we have it may start getting bullish in March and excessive rains in April might give us some big spike up days from elevated concerns(though the market is smart enough to know that we only need a couple of warm/dry weeks in early May to get things caught up fast.
Last weeks drought monitor below.
By metmike - Feb. 24, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in less than 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Learn About Daily Precipitation
Potential heavy rains events coming up in early March...........targeting the Southeast belt and points just south.
No early corn planting in the south this year!
I live a long way away but a couple questions
Will spring weather warm up enough to melt and firm up the ground to harvest the corn trapped in snow drift up to the ear, for a timely spring plant
This may be an exaggeration of just a small area, that waits to be harvested, and snow drifts up to the ear may also be an exaggeration, I don't know
I am also wondering how serious the flooding may be on some rivers and surrounding bottom lands. Is that land that could possibly flood, a very large area or is the potential relatively small
All I have heard all winter is the unharvested corn and some bean acres. Also some talk about moving corn out of the bin sooner than normal as the corn isn't keeping decent quality, in the bin
On the flip side those with good corn may keep corn in the bin longer, as the subsidy money has removed the urgency to sell for cash flow
Wayne,
I only forecast weather going 2 weeks out.
Beyond that period, the skill level is very poor.
Take the 90 day weather forecast above with a grain of salt.