KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 689.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2875.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +5.0%)
10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 711K; previous 694K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +2.4%; previous -0.4%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 442.883M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.415M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 259.078M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.971M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.587M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.635M)
Refinery Usage (previous 89.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.59M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.378M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9078.78 has open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-March. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 8628.53. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9484.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 9411.50. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9763.00.First support is today's low crossing at 8822.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 8628.53.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2996.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3332.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 3333.50. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3393.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 3134.17. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2996.99.
The Dow closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control warned Americans to prepare for a coronavirus outbreak and investors attempted to assess the impact of the epidemic in China on global trade and travel. The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening is possible when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 25,642.37. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 28,892.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 28,892.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,535.98. First support is today's low crossing at 27,030.88. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 27,571.10.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed up 27/32's at 167-18.
March T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 172-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-01 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 168-05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 172-04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 163-25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-01.
March T-notes closed up 120-pts. at 133.005.
March T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 134.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.076 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 133.105. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 134.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.076. Second support is the February 6th low crossing at 130.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at $49.50 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $54.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.39 is the next upside target. First support is today's low crossing at $49.69. Second support is February's low crossing at $49.50.
April heating oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, the June 2017-low crossing at $155.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $165.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $173.55.Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $182.41. First support is today's low crossing at $156.05 Second support is the June 2017-low crossing at $155.89.
April unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.76 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the January 21st high crossing at 186.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.26. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 186.74. First support is today's low crossing at 163.23. Second support is February's low crossing at 160.32.
April Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the February 14th low crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.016 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.016. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is the February 14th low crossing at 1.795. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.788.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.67.
The March Euro closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off the December 31st high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 107.93. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3072 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3080. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3225. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2857. Second support isthe 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0271 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0271. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0303. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-September's low crossing at 74.90 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.02. First support is February's low crossing at 75.01. Second support is last-September's low crossing at 74.90.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0916. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing 0.0892. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0881.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1592.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1592.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1559.00.
March silver closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average at 17.808 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 18.920. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 50-day moving average at 17.808. Second support is the February low crossing at 17.435.
March copper closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 263.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.07. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 254.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 248.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up a $0.00 1/4-cent at 3.72 1/2.
March corn closed fractionally higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at $3.71 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.70. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.
March wheat closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $5.40 3/4.
March wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.56 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $5.30 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.55.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.38 3/4. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $4.4.8 Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.38 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.02-cents at $5.16.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 5.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.06.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $8.79.
March soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $9.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.14 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $0.40 at $286.50.
March soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $297.60. First support is Monday's low crossing at $284.80. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil closed down 20-pts. at 29.29.
March soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 28.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.55. First support is today's low crossing at 29.06. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.05 at $64.67.
April hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Extends Monday's decline, the February 13th low crossing at $62.92 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.53. First support is the February 13th low crossing at $62.92. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed down $2.30 at $112.95.
April cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $111.85 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $116.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.02. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $111.86. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $109.37.
March Feeder cattle closed down $3.05-cents at $132.97.
March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.25 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.25. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is today's low crossing at $131.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.87 is the next downside target. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.69 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If May renews the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.05 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 64.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.