KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 27, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.4%; previous +1.4%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -1.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +2.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 214K; previous 210K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1726000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +25K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1250.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 497.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 406.4K)
9:30 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 103.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +2.0%; previous -4.9%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2343B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -151B)
11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 23)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 14)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A FRB Atlanta Banking Outlook Conference
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends this week's sharp decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extend the decline off last-Thursday's high the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8628.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9346.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 9411.50. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9763.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 8697.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8628.53.
The March S&P 500 was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high crossing at 33.94.90. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2996.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3296.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3273.85. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3394.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3062.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2996.99.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 172-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 168-19. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 172-04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-20.
March T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 134.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.152 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 133.190. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 134.075. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.304. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.152.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off January's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 54.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.81. First support is the overnight low crossing at 47.53. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.92.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 135.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 171.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.57. First support is the overnight low crossing at 145.29. Second support is weekly support crossing at 135.40.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 150.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 169.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 169.26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178.07. First support is the December-2018 low crossing at 150.00. Second support is monthly support crossing at 139.55.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.878 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.024. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.760. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.76.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.72. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 107.93. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3056 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0268 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0268. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0304. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, last-May's low crossing at 74.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.34 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at 74.91. Second support is last-May's low crossing at 74.16.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0915. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0892. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0881.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1598.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1624.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1598.70.
May silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $17.925 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May renews this month's rally, last-September's high crossing at $19.870 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $18.920. Second resistance is last-September's highcrossing at $19.870. First support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $17.925. Second support is February's low crossing at $17.435.
May copper was lower overnight as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $254.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $270.88. First support is the reaction low crossing at $254.75. Second support is February's low crossing at $249.45.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83. First support is the overnight low crossing at $3.72. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.56 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.27. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.12.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.59 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.48. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.82 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.11 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $4.55 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.48.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $5.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.39 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.39 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.50 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $5.23 3/4. Second support is November's low crossing at $5.16.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Friday's high, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.96 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.25 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.79 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.
May soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $301.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $301.90. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at $304.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at $290.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-September's low crossing at 29.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 29.28. Second support is last-September's low crossing at 29.03.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.48 at $65.15.
April hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's decline, the February 13th low crossing at $62.92 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.34. First support is the February 13th low crossing at $62.92. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed down $0.60 at $112.35.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, last-September's low crossing at $109.37 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $116.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.61. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $111.86. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $109.37.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.10-cents at $134.08.
March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.07 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.07. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $131.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.91 is the next downside target. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.70 confirming that a top has been posted. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.20 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.05 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 64.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
No rain for Argentina and all of S.Brazil for the next 2 weeks! Is this too late in their growing season to lower yields?
Very mild for natural gas is crushing the price well below previous contract lows. Coronavirus and stock market hurting too.
EIA was bearish for the first time in 6 weeks.
After doing more checking, it does appear that dryness the next 2 weeks WILL hurt soybeans in Argentina.
http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles