KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
9:45 AM ET. February ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 45.8)
10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 59.8)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 57.0)
4:00 PM ET. February Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 655.0)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +5.0%)
8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +150000; previous +291000)
9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.4)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:00 AM ET. February ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.3; previous 55.5)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 60.9)
Prices Idx (previous 55.5)
Employment Idx (previous 53.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 56.2)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 443.335M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.452M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 256.387M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.691M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.472M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.115M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.884M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.294M)
11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.7)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extended Monday's record setting rally.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9268.13 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8059.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9089.18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9268.13. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 8126.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8059.89.
The March S&P 500 was higher in overnight trading as it extends Monday's record setting rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3262.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3165. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3258.89. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 177-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 172-09. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 177-11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 166-17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-27.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above monthly resistance crossing at 135.155 would open the door into uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.272 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 135.245. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.314. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.272.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends Monday's key reversal up that suggest a low might have been posted.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 42.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.49. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 54.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at 43.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 42.36.
April heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 135.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.68. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 171.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 143.83. Second support is weekly support crossing at 135.40.
April unleaded gas was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 139.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176.09. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.11. Second support is monthly support crossing at 139.55.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI were oversold but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.854 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April resumes the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.854. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.979. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.642. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.40. First support the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 97.46. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.64.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the January 16th high crossing at 112.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.98 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 112.46. Second resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.98.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the January 31st high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3063 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3253. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3328. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2484.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, last-August's high crossing at 1.0600 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0339 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.0545. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 1.0600. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0380. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0339.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If June extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.22. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 75.69. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.28. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0914 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0937. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0920. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1571.60 would open the door for additional weakness into early-March. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1625.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1625.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1691.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1571.60. Second support is February's low crossing at $1551.10.
May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $17.815 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $17.815. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $18.920. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $16.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981.
May copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at $249.45 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $269.41. First support is February's low crossing at $249.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at $234.46.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight as it extends Monday's short covering rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.81 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.88. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $4.57 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.49 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at $5.16. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.22 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $8.78 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.
May soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the January 14th high crossing at 311.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $310.00. Second resistance is the January 14th high crossing at $311.00. First support is February's low crossing at $290.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at 27.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.35. Second support is last-May's low crossing at 27.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.53 at $62.80.
April hogs closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends last-week's decline, February's low crossing at $61.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.91 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.47. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $61.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed up $2.58 at $110.15.
April cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $103.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.01. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $103.75.
May Feeder cattle closed up $2.45-cents at $135.98.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $144.09. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $131.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Monday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.49. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the January 14th gap crossing at 26.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar posted a key reversal down on Monday as it extended the decline below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.24. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.37 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.