INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 4, 2020, 7:56 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, March 4, 2020  



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 655.0)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.1%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.4)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%



                       Refinance Idx



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +5.0%)



8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report



                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +150000; previous +291000)



9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 53.4)



10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting



10:00 AM ET. February ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.3; previous 55.5)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 60.9)



                       Prices Idx (previous 55.5)



                       Employment Idx (previous 53.1)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 56.2)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 443.335M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.452M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 256.387M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.691M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.472M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.115M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.9%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.884M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.294M)

                       

11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 52.7)



2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of Tuesday's sharp decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9223.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8059.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9085.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9223.48. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 8126.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8059.89.  



The March S&P 500 was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3257.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high,  the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3123.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3257.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 177-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-17 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 174-16. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 177-11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 167-27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-17.  



June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close above monthly resistance crossing at 135.155 has opened the door into uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.058 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 136.230. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.198. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.058.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 42.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 54.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at 43.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 42.36.



April heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 135.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.30. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 171.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 143.83. Second support is weekly support crossing at 135.40.   



April unleaded gas was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 139.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 175.34. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.11. Second support is monthly support crossing at 139.55. 



April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.849 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April resumes the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.849. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.971. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.642. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.35. First support the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.64. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.19.  



The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the January 16th high crossing at 112.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.04 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.75. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 113.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.28. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 110.37.    



The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the January 31st high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3058 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3110. Second resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2484.



The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, last-August's high crossing at 1.0600 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0345 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0569. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 1.0600. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0383. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0345.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If June extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.19. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 75.69. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.28. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0940. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0920. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off the 50-day moving average, February's high crossing at $1691.70 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1564.00 would open the door for additional weakness into early-March. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1654.30. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1691.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1575.60. Second support is February's low crossing at $1551.10.



May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $17.796 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $17.796. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $18.920. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $16.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981. 



May copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at $249.45 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $268.96. First support is February's low crossing at $249.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at $234.46.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends this week's short covering rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.87 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.    



May wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.43 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.43 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95. 

   

May Kansas City Wheat closed up a $0.00 1/2-cent at $4.58 1/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2.  



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.49. First support is November's low crossing at $5.16. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.22. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $8.78 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.    



May soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the November 18th high crossing at 315.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 14th high crossing at $311.00. Second resistance is the November 18th high crossing at 315.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $302.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.90.    



May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at 27.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.39. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.35. Second support is last-May's low crossing at 27.85.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.75 at $63.55. 



April hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends last-week's decline, February's low crossing at $61.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.71 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $61.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.   



April cattle closed down $0.05 at $110.10. 



April cattle closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $103.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.48. Second resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $103.75.  

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $1.93-cents at $134.05. 



May Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.81. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $131.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



May cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the January 14th gap crossing at 26.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.             



May sugar closed lower on Tuesday following yesterday's key reversal down as it extended the decline off February's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



May cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.14 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target. 

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