KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 6, 2020
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +175K; previous +225K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.44)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.25%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +19K)
Private Payroll (previous +206K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous -514K)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -46.0B; previous -48.88B)
Exports (USD) (previous 209.64B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 258.52B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous -0.2%)
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +16.5B; previous +22.06B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as the roller-coaster ride continues.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9206.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 7759.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9103.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9206.66. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 8116.24. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 7759.93.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3229.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3093.76. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3229.23. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday as volatility remains the order of the day.The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening is possible when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,060.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 23,674.73. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,800.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,060.44. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 24,713.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 23,674.73.
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June T-bonds closed up 1-30/32's at 174-02.
June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 177-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 165-04 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 174-16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 177-11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 168-23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165-04.
June T-notes closed up 190-pts. At 136.185.
June T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.147 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 136.230. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.025. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.147.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes this year's decline, long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $42.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.03 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.03. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $54.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at $43.32. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $42.05.
April heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $135.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $160.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $160.41. Second resistance is the February 20th high crossing at $171.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $143.83. Second support is weekly support crossing at $135.40.
April unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 124.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.92. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.62. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.11. Second support is weekly support crossing at 124.50.
April Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.845 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April resumes the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.845. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.964. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.642. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 96.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.28. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 96.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 96.19.
The June Euro closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the January 16th high crossing at 112.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.12 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.75. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 113.56. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.12. Second support is February's low crossing at 108.53.
The June British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3057 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2677 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3110. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3253. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2760. Second support isthe 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2677.
The June Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2015-2019-decline crossing at 1.0710 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0357 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0614. Second resistance isthe 25% retracement level of the 2015-2019-decline crossing at 1.0710. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0419. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0357.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends Tuesday's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.14. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 75.74. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.28. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0952 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0945. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0952. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0923. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing 0.0918.
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April gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1579.10 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1579.10. Second support is February's low at $1551.10.
May silver closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.782 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2019 rally crossing at 15.981 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.782. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 18.920. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 16.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019 rally crossing at 15.981.
May copper closed lower on Thursday as it extends the February-March trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 263.95 would confirming an upside breakout of February's trading range. Closes below February's low crossing at 248.75 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is February's high crossing at 263.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 268.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at 250.10. Second support is February's low crossing at 248.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at 3.81 3/4.
May corn closed lower on Thursday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.87 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at $3.94. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.87 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.
May wheat closed down a $0.00 1/2-cents at $5.17 3/4.
May wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.30 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.07-cents at $4.46 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.68 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.57 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.68 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 1/4-cents at $5.22.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, last-September's low crossing at 5.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.15 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.11 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.10 1/4-cents at $8.97.
May soybeans posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday while extending February's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes this year's decline, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. Closes above February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.20 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $8.78 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.
May soybean meal closed down $5.00 at $303.90.
May soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $299.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at $311.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $310.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $311.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.40. Second support is February's low crossing at $290.70.
May soybean oil closed down 40-pts. at 29.34.
May soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the May 2019 low crossing at 27.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.23. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.35. Second support is the May 2019 low crossing at 27.85.
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April hogs closed up $1.08 at $65.38.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $68.25 would confirm an upside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes below February's low crossing at $61.00 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.69. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $61.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed down $2.63 at $108.65.
April cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $103.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $103.75.
May Feeder cattle closed down $1.98-cents at $134.45.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.32. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $131.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target.
May cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 24.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target.