Weather Saturday
16 responses | 2 likes
Started by metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:49 a.m.

Welcome!  March (7) coming in like a LAMB!Image result for picture of lamb

 Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.


Never too old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


Winter Weather Forecasts


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.


Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

Comments
By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:50 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


  


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                                          

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:50 a.m.
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Impressive magnitude of reds in the Midwest!!!


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

                                    


            

                

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:51 a.m.
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Surface Weather features day 3-7:



A new storm/front in the Midwest to start next week with moderate to heavy precip.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:51 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.



New system in the Midwest to start next week..............moderate to heavy rains.


Day 1 below:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

                                    


            

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:52 a.m.
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Excessive rain potential


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

                                    


            

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:52 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    

                                    


            

                

                                    


            

                

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:53 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Learn About Daily Precipitation

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:54 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of 

                                    

                                    

                                    

                                    


By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:54 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:55 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


February March 5: No drought anywhere in the Midwest.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/  

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        

         

                                                                                

                                        

Drought Monitor for conus

                            










                                    


            


By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:57 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Starting with last week below:



Last Friday: 12z run. Much milder and looky here, the big upper ridge in the Southeast is making a come back after taking a break for a couple of weeks. Deep trough backs up/retrogrades west. Heavy precip midsection!

Sunday: Average is very mild, zonal, west to east flow, although some individual members have an amplified trough in the middle to Rockies. Some have upper level ridge rebuilding in the Southeast. Not too many have much northern stream influence.

Monday: It's all southern stream dominated and an upper level ridge building in the South. The trough out west keeps retrograding/backing up farther west each run. Extremely mild eastern 2/3rds.

Tuesday: Mild. All southern stream. Zonal average but some individual solutions are amplified. Probably not a stable pattern...........it will morph to something else.

Thursday: VERY MILD. All southern stream. Universal agreement  by every member.  How long will this last beyond 2 weeks? Upper trough now just off the West Coast and mild Pacific air spreading across the entire country from west to east. 

Saturday: VERY MILD

Sunday:  VERY MILD!

Monday: Very mild, zonal flow. All the cold is locked up by the North Pole. 

Tuesday: The average is still mild and zonal but many to most individual solutions  do NOT look like the average. A few are trying to bring the northern stream and cold air in.  Some have an upper level ridge in the Southeast. Vast majority are active with southern stream and WET. Snow in the far north?

Wednesday: MUCH deeper trough West and stronger ridge in the Southeast. VERY WET!

Thursday: Ridge in the Southeast is back. Deep trough West.  Warm and VERY wet!

Saturday: Colder, especially north!  At a chess tournament today. More on Sunday

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 22, 2020 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:58 a.m.
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Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:58 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast



Last Sunday: Massive positive anomaly in the N.Pacific has backed up a bit with downstream negative anomaly in the West, especially W. Canada to Alaska.........where the coldest air is most likely to be aimed. Is the upper level ridge in the Southeast going to rebuild?

Monday: Even more massive positive anomaly in the N.Pacific. Downstream neg anomaly West Coast.  Upper level ridge rebuilding downstream of that, in the Southeast. WARM, especially Southeast. 

Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly in the N.Pacific continues to retrograde, forcing all the features to its east, to also back up west. Will this allow a new negative anomaly and cool air develop in the Northeast?  The last few maps suggest that but thats an unreliable period.  Positive anomalies over Greenland/N. Atlantic would  favor that.

Thursday: Huge positive anomaly in the N.Pacific still there. Downstream trough along the West coast, then modest positive anomalies from the Plains eastward........the recipe for very mild temps.

Saturday: Massive positive Anomaly in N.Pacific..........modest positive Eastern North America. Growing negative anomaly north of Alaska. Cold air cut off. 

Sunday: Huge positive anomaly in N.Pacific.......large area of positive anomalies across much of the US to Eastern Canada.  Negative anomaly north of Alaska........where the cold will be LOCKED UP.

Monday: Same huge positive anomaly in N.Pacific. Center of growing large positive anomaly in far Eastern Canada with positive anomalies extending back across much of the USA.  Just 1 modest negative anomaly , still north of Alaska. 

Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly N.Pacific.

Wednesday: Just like yesterday.

Thursday: Huge positive anomaly N.Pacific.....been on the maps for weeks. Pretty large positive anomaly Southeast Canada extending well south into the US.  Modest negative anomaly north of Alaska. This is almost the opposite of what is needed for cold air outbreaks in the East.........which is why it will be very mild. Strong signal for HEAVY precip. Potential for excessive rain event(s).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:59 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.


Last: Friday: Tenacious very impressive +AO remains which will make it unlikely for extreme cold in high latitudes to be aimed south into the midlatitudes........other than brief incursions. NAO does drop close to 0 which increases changes of cold going south compared to it staying +NAO.  PNA goes negative, which is Not favorable for cold in the east but is for cold in the West. 

Sunday: ++AO stays solidly positive. NAO gets down close to 0. PNA is negative.  This favors cold in the West but not the East. 

Monday: ++AO stays positive. NAO gets down to around 0. PNA negative is growing in magnitude..........cold West, warm east of that.

Tuesday: +AO stays positive but drops a tad. NAO dropping to 0, some potential for -NAO late and cooling Northeast!  PNA solidly negative suggests cold West and warmer downstream.          

Thursday: ++AO does drop late with a couple members around 0. NAO drops to 0 late but unless there is a sharp pattern change at the end of 2 weeks, it will stay mild. Solidly negative -PNA mean cold along the West Coast and very mild downstream, to the east.

Friday: ++AO stays positive.  NAO drops to 0, might mean some cool shots along the East Coast.

Sunday: AO and NAO stay solidly positive and PNA solidly negative. The recipe for widespread warm weather in the middle latitudes and frigid weather being bottled up in the high latitudes(Arctic). Which will be seeing some its coldest temperatures of the Winter. 

Monday: AO stays positive but a few members are close to 0 at the end of 2 weeks. NAO a bit above 0. -PNA increases to near 0 at the end of 2 weeks. Nothing to write home about except the potential is a tad higher for cold today for the 2nd half of March........just a tad!

Tuesday: For the first time in ages, the AO actually drops down near 0 at the end of 2 weeks after being incredibly positive in February. This at least means that there is a better chance than before for late March can turn colder(vs average). NAO drops to just above 0. PNA increases but stays just below 0.  Will have to see if these changes lead to something but they are late week 2, a low skill time frame.

Wednesday: AO and NAO drop down lose to 0 but still slight +. PNA still a bit negative. Nothing to write home about.........or significant to note on a forum (-:                                

Thursday: AO drops close to 0, NAO stays just above 0. PNA stays negative.  Nothing that interesting.

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 7:59 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

By metmike - March 7, 2020, 8 a.m.
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Previous posts:


            

Long-term median number of days per year with snow depth of 1"+ on the ground.

@AlaskaWx

Image

                                    


            ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

           

                                    


            


            

                By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 3:33 p.m.            

            

                      

NEW:  The long lived upper level ridge in the Southeast US will be breaking down during week 2! This will allow cooler air to affect the East/Southeast. However, air masses will not be very cold coming from the Pacific or from Canada in week 2.

                                    


                      +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                    

                Re: Weather Wednesday            

                          

                By WxFollower - Feb. 12, 2020, 3:33 p.m.            

            

                            

  The Arctic (80N to 90N) is cooling down again (see image below). Will it finally get to below normal/colder than 245 K (-28 C) with the extreme and long-lasting +AO?? I'm still hoping.

  Note on the image that the coldest day's normal there (per green line) still isn't til ~2/26, when it drops briefly to 242 K (-31 C or -24 F). Also, note that the normal for exactly one month from today (3/12) is still about the same as today's 244 K. So, the point is that the Arctic can still churn out very cold air through about a month from now. That's why if the delivery/upper winds are just right and it is fast enough, it can still get mighty cold even down into the southern US into mid March despite a good bit higher sun by then. March is rarely dull from many perspectives and this is one of the reasons, the battle of the lingering very cold Arctic and the warming in the temperate regions from a higher sun. March, the weather enthusiast's dream month!

  Arctic daily mean temps through today, 2/12/2020:

  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png

 

                                    


            +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++               

                

                Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            

            

                            By metmike - Feb. 12, 2020, 7:43 p.m.            

            

Great points and graph Larry!


This also illustrates the fact that global warming/climate change is warming the coldest places, during the coldest times of year the most.

Since your graph shows this year, Winter only , I provided a year round temp profile for 2016-2018 below as an example of temperatures in the Arctic for the entire year.................staying milder/less harsh in the normally frigid environment of Winter but then every Summer, temperatures are very close to and sometimes BELOW average. 


The graph below this one shows each year going back over 45 years. You may need to wait a couple of seconds for it to load. What is amazing is that during the "cold" season, temperatures are consistently above to much above average(less harsh) but every Summer they get back to average(and much of the time, even a bit below average. 

So most people may think that its warmer temperatures during the melt season that is melting all the ice but temperatures have frequently been a bit BELOW average during the melt season, which melts less ice.

What is actually happening is that during the rest of the year, during the freeze season temperatures are well above average so not as much of the ice that melted the prior Summer freezes as deeply. This thinner ice, is then easier to melt the next Summer, even with temperatures that are average or even a tad below average(but above freezing and with the sun shining 24 hours a day. 

The ice loss was pretty great up until 2012. Since then it has (temporarily) stabilized. 

We should note too, that SEA ice is already floating in the sea. Melting it does not add much to sea levels(like an ice cube melting in your drink). This is a big reason for why all that melting Arctic sea ice prior to 2012 did NOT cause an acceleration of the rate of sea level increase. 


UAH Arctic Temperature Profile

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/10/uah-arctic-temperature-profile/


Arctic_DMI_3yrs.jpg



This (painstakingly created) animation shows the DMI above 80N from 1970 thru Oct 2018.  Images sourced from  DMI’s Arctic Temperatures page.

Arctic_temps


                                    



            

Brian Brettschneider@Climatologist49

·

Which month of the year has the Best Weather™?

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                                                                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

      

              

       

If you are wondering why it’s been such a mild winter in the US and many other areas in the mid latitudes look no further. The vigorous polar vortex has all the cold air corraled!


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Near perfect circular symmetry in the strong #PolarVortex right now and very close to being centered right over the North Pole. About as far as you can get from any sort of disruption or split.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://twitter.com/i/status/1229431021457702912

                                    


            

                                                    

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

            

    

                            

                By metmike - Feb. 27, 2020, 11:59 a.m.            

            

              

                            


Can you say #fetch?  Amazing "fetch" from Lake Huron across Ontario. Note sure I've ever seen a Lake Effect fetch that focused and defined over such a long distance on the models before. NAM snowfall.

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+++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                                                                 

                Re: Weather Saturday            

            

                By WxFollower - Feb. 29, 2020, 10:41 p.m.            

                                  

The Arctic’s coldest so far this winter was today at 243K. Models suggest further drops to possibly as low as 240K over the next 3-5 days.


                                    


            

   

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Saturday            

            

                           By metmike - March 1, 2020, 10:08 a.m.            

            


Great observation Larry...........thanks.

The temperature anomalies in the Arctic are very cold the next 2 weeks too.  

Part of the +AO and why we will be warm down here in the mid latitudes........all that frigid air is locked/bottled up in the highest latitudes/Arctic!


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f216_nhbg.gif

                                    


                                    

                  +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

            

            


                By WxFollower - March 4, 2020, 2:18 a.m.            

            

                           

The Arctic says "what spring?"

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png


                                    


            

                

                            

                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

            

                                    


            

                

                                                                               

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday March 5, 2020            

        

                            

                By metmike - March 5, 2020, 1:34 p.m.            

            


                            

Thanks Larry, the longer the cold stays bottled up in the high latitudes, the longer we stay mild here in the middle latitudes.