INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 9, 2020, 8:12 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, March 9, 2020  



10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 110.24)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



Tuesday, March 10, 2020 



N/A  2nd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey



6:00 AM ET. February NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism



                       Small Business Idx (expected 102.8; previous 104.3)



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.3%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.1%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.9M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)



Wednesday, March 11, 2020 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 754.1)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +15.1%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 265.8)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.4%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 2875.1)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +26.0%)



8:30 AM ET. February Real Earnings



8:30 AM ET. February CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.5%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)



9:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting



10:00 AM ET. February Online Help Wanted Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 444.119M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.784M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 252.048M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.339M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 134.464M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.008M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 86.9%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.272M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.388M)

                       

2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower in overnight trading after Saudi Arabia started a price war and Italy locked down a key region. The overnight sell off saw June post a new low for the year as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 7759.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9091.96 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9085.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9091.96. First support is the overnight low crossing at 8085.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 7759.93.  



The March S&P 500 gapped down and was sharply lower in overnight trading as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high,  the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3185.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3136.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3185.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2819.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 191-22. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 172-12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-11.  



June T-notes gapped up and were sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With June trading into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.088 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 140.240. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135.128. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.088.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil gapped down and was sharply lower in overnight trading after Saudi Arabia starts oil price war and Italy locks down region.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 26.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight gap crossing at 41.05. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 45.16. First support is the overnight low crossing at 27.34. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.05.



April heating oil gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 105.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight gap crossing at 137.83. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 107.99. Second support is weekly support crossing at 105.34.   



April unleaded gas gapped down and was sharply lower in overnight trading as it extends this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 89.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight gap crossing at 138.40. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.87. First support is the overnight low crossing at 105.74. Second support is monthly support crossing at 89.75. 



April Henry natural gas gapped down and was sharply lower overnight a it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.823 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.762. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.823. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.610. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the June-2019 low crossing at 94.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at 94.55. Second support is the June-2019 low crossing at 94.37.  



The June Euro was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, last-June's high crossing at 116.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.49 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 115.45. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at 116.89. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.49.     



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3060 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the January 31st high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3212. Second resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2937. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2760.



The June Swiss Franc was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2019-decline crossing at 1.1010 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0404 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0943. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2019-decline crossing at 1.1010. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0520. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0404.



The June Canadian Dollar gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 70.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the overnight gap crossing at 74.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 72.64. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 70.34.  



The June Japanese Yen gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0923 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0988. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0935. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0923.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1622.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1704.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1640.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1621.90.



May silver was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $17.714 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $17.714. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.881. First support is February's low crossing at $16.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981. 



May copper was lower overnight and appears to breaking out to the downside of the February-March trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below February's low crossing at $249.45 would renew the decline off January's high. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $267.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $267.21. Second resistance is the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75. First support is the overnight low crossing at $245.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at $234.46.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.86 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is February's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.   



May wheat was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.23 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.05 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95. 

   

May Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at $4.46 1/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.66 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.54 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.66 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2.  



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.47 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $5.15 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans gapped down and was lower overnight as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. Closes above February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.17 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.70 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.    



May soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the November 18th high crossing at 315.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 14th high crossing at $311.00. Second resistance is the November 18th high crossing at 315.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $301.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.20.    



May soybean oil gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 26.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at 27.07. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.21.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.55 at $65.93. 



April hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $68.25 would confirm an upside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes below February's low crossing at $61.00 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.46. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $61.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.   



April cattle closed down $2.90 at $105.75. 



April cattle gapped down and closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $103.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.78. First support is today's low crossing at $105.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at $103.75.  

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $3.30-cents at $131.15. 



May Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, last-September's low crossing at $128.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $135.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.36. First support is today's low crossing at $130.30. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $128.32.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.91 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target.   



May cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 24.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.             



May sugar closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the November 21st low crossing at 12.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



May cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - March 9, 2020, 12:38 p.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine!


Coronavirus! Coronavirus! 

Coronavirus! Coronavirus!

Coronavirus! Coronavirus!

The extremely bearish production/price news from Russia/Saudi Arabia is massively pressuring liquid energy prices.

Which I think can be seen as a good thing.

We consume 143,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline in the US each year. If you cut the price of fuel by $1/gallon, that's a ton of extra money in the pockets of consumers and for businesses that have high fuel transportation costs.


More mild weather for natural gas but possibly turning colder later this month.