INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - March 12, 2020, 3:56 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, March 13, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected -0.8%; previous +0%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous -1.7%)



10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 95.0; previous 100.9)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 92.6)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.8)



Monday, March 16, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. March Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 12.9)



                       Employment Idx (previous 6.6)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 22.1)



                       Prices Received (previous 16.7)



10:00 AM ET. January Regional & State Employment & Unemployment



4:00 PM ET. January Treasury International Capital Data



  N/A              Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, last-June's low crossing at 7089.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8837.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8374.48. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8837.27. First support is today's low crossing at 7313.75. Second support is the June-2019 low crossing at 7089.00.



The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the December 24th-2018 low crossing at 2356.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3084.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2904.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3084.36. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2489.86. Second support is the December 24th-low crossing at 2356.00.



The Dow gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 25% retracement level of the 1974-2020-rally crossing at 22,303.18 as it extends this week's move into bear-market territory.The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening is possible when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 1974-2020-rally crossing at 18,467.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the March 9th gap crossing at 25,226.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 9th gap crossing at 25,226.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,729.93. First support is today's low crossing at 21,297.88. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 1974-2020-rally crossing at 18,467.07. 



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed down 3-07/32's at 177-10.



June T-bonds posted a key reversal down with a lower close on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169-23 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 191-22. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 175-22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 169-23. 



June T-notes closed down 100-pts. At 137.020.



June T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.056 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 140.240. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.174. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.056.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $41.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $26.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $41.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $45.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at $27.34. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $26.05.  



April heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $137.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $105.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $137.83. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $107.99. Second support is weekly support crossing at $105.34.



April unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 78.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 138.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 138.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.24. First support is today's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.50.



April Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.931 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound near-term. If April renews the decline below weekly support crossing at 1.611, it would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.931. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.024. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.610. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.530.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's low, the June-2019 low crossing at 94.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.74. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 99.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at 94.53. Second support is the June-2019 low crossing at 94.37. 



The June Euro closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.96 would temper the friendly outlook. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 118.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 114.84. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 118.19. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.96. Second support is February's low crossing at 108.53. 



The June British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2484 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3040 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3040. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3212. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2484. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2309.



The June Swiss Franc closed lower in volatile trading on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0458 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2019-decline crossing at 1.1010 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.0943. Second resistance isthe 38% retracement level of the 2015-2019-decline crossing at 1.1010. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0621. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0458.



The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 70.34 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 74.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 74.38. Second resistance isthe 20-day moving average crossing at 74.58. First support is today's low crossing at 71.95. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 70.34. 



The June Japanese Yen posted a key reversal down in wild trading on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Tuesday's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0929 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0992. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0947. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing 0.0929.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1592.10 confirms that an important top has likely been posted.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, February's low crossing at $1551.10 is the next downside target. Closes above today's high crossing at $1651.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1704.30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is today's low crossing at $1560.40. Second support is February's low crossing at $1551.10.



May silver closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2019 rally crossing at 15.351 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.533 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.788. First support is today's low crossing at 15.505. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2019 rally crossing at 15.351.  



May copper closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 256.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 263.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 265.15. First support is today's low crossing at 242.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.46.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed down $0.09 1/2-cents at 3.65. 



May corn closed sharply lower on Thursday due to spillover weakness from the stock market. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.77 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at $3.94. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.85 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is today's low crossing at $3.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.    



May wheat closed down $0.07 1/4-cents at $5.05 1/2.  



May wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.50 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $4.97 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95.      



May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.32 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.22 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.46 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.59. First support is today's low crossing at $4.24. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.11 1/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $5.09. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday and posted a new contract low as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $5.03. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down $0.15 3/4-cents at $8.57 1/2.



May soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $8.39 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $8.52 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $8.39 1/2.    



May soybean meal closed up $1.10 at $302.70. 



May soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, November's high crossing at $315.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $310.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $315.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 300.90. Second support is February's low crossing at $290.70.      



May soybean oil closed down 127-pts. at 26.26. 



May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 26.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 28.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.35. First support is today's low crossing at 26.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.21.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $3.00 at $60.88. 



April hogs gapped lower and closed limit-down on Thursday and spiked below trading range support crossing at $61.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below February's low crossing at $61.00 would mark a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes above February's high crossing at $68.25 would confirm an upside breakout of the February-March trading range. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.26. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $59.30.   



April cattle closed down $3.00 at $100.08. 



April cattle gapped lower and closed limit down on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The limit-down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $98.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.68. First support is today's low crossing at $100.08. Second support is weekly support crossing at $98.94.  

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $4.50-cents at $120.75. 



May Feeder cattle closed limit down for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $120.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $135.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $130.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $135.65. First support is today's low crossing at $120.75. Second support is weekly support crossing at $120.50.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee gapped down and closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 9.96 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target.   



May cocoa closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 24.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.              



May sugar gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 11.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



May cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.82 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



Comments
By metmike - March 13, 2020, 1:58 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tall pine.

Wild.  

Coronapanic, coronavolatility, coronacraziness!


Seems almost simpossible for unleaded to have dropped below 86c on Thursday.