the whole world is in a panic. In many countries, normal life has stopped.
During the last few weeks, I have seen widely ranging numbers describing the fatality rate of the coronavirus. I checked the most current data, as of Saturday, 3/14/20,, near noon Pacific Time. (the data are changing quickly)....
US...2499 cases, 55 death.... fatality rate 2.2%
S Korea...8086 cases, 72 deaths... fatality rate 0.9%
Italy...21,157 cases, 1441 deaths..fatality rate 6.8%
Spain...5,753 cases, 133 deaths, fatality rate 2.3%
Germany...4.267 cases, 8 deaths, fatality rate 0.2%
Iran...12,729 cases, 611 deaths, fatality rate 4.8%
It is surprising to see these numbers vary to such a degree. Maybe, it has to do with how countries respond to the crisis.
A more in depth study would also include population size in these statistics. For example, the US has about 6 times the population of Italy.
Of course, when we look at these numbers, we must realize that many of the still living\ infected people could wind up as fatalities, which would increase the fatality rate
Also, many people are infected and done't know it.
Gunter,
I copied the post below that relates to this:
By metmike - March 9, 2020, 8:06 p.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48235/
There is a good reason for why Italy is having a MUCH higher incidence of deaths per infected. Their aging population.
The exact same thing has been happening in Italy with the flu over the past decade because they have so many old people, many over 75 with health problems:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
 | Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect Methods. We used the EuroMomo and the FluMomo methods to estimate the annual trend of influenza-attributable excess death rate by age group. Population data were provided by the National Institute of Statistics, data on influenza like illness and confirmed influenza cases were provided by the National Institutes of Health. www.sciencedirect.com |
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period(4 years). The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers.
Are we being told this fact?
Does it matter?
How many have died in Italy so far: Ninety-seven people have died of the novel coronavirus since Sunday in Italy, bringing its total number of deaths to 463. The country has 9,172 cases so far, the most of any European country. Source below.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-intl/index.html
| Italy imposes draconian coronavirus lockdown restrictions Inmates rioted and overran a number of prisons in Italy on Monday, escaping their facilities and kidnapping officers, as the ripple effects of a drastic coronavirus lockdown in the country's north started to take hold. www.cnn.com |
Hmmm. That's alot of deaths and surely it will go higher but will it even get to the average of 17,000 deaths/year from the flu based on the scientific study above? To reach the average flu season, the number of deaths must be 37 times higher in Italy than what they are currently by the end of the year..........and this is the country in Europe that has the WORST death rate by far.
Anyone care to bet me that Coronavirus deaths will be much lower in almost every country of the world by a very wide margin vs flu deaths that occur every single year?
The age for all countries of the world that divides a population into two equal-sized groups
http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html
| Median Age / Countries of the World No information is available for non-listed countries. The median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older. world.bymap.org |
https://data.oecd.org/healthcare/influenza-vaccination-rates.htm
metmike: The geriatric population gets protected from the flu at the highest rate vs the younger people because of their higher % getting the flu shot.
We know that the flu kills them are a higher rate than younger people but the actual rate is distorted because 70% of the older people in the US get the flu shot. The statistic regarding flu deaths is with respect to 100% of the older generation, including those 70% protected to some degree with the flu shot(some still get the flu despite the shot)............so its the overall rate for those protected and those not protected combined.
If we only looked at the deaths from the flu in older people of those NOT protected by the flu shot( ``````around 30%) we would find that the flu is actually 2 to close to 3 times more fatal(in the non protected). In fact, the 70% of those elderly that get the flu shot is even higher for those that are sick and elderly and get the flu shot.......possibly, 90% of those that are sick and elderly get the flu shot.
That last fact is profound because it explains a big part of why the Coronavirus is killing the sick and elderly at a massively greater rate than the rest of the population
Since there is no vaccine or protection for the Cornonavirus, we are comparing deaths to old people from Coronavirus in the 100% unprotected population to deaths from the flu in those 65+ that come mainly from the 30% of those that are unprotected and many healthy but represent most of the total number(giving us a very distorted picture/representation of how deadly the flu is for the sick/old...........that are mostly protected).
Italy has the highest % of sick old farts of any country...............and this explains why their death rate is so much higher than other countries.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm
metmike: That 70-85% rate would be even higher if not for this age bracket getting the flu shot at a much greater rate, especially those with health conditions and being old.
The Coronavirus is clobbering the sick and elderly like the flu virus would do............if there were no flu vaccine to provide a massive amount of protection.
Younger people get flu shots too and this also lessens flu deaths but not nearly as much as it does for the sick/elderly.
The Coronavirus is not killing younger people at an alarming rate. If it were not for the stats being completely dominated by the sick and elderly deaths, the alarm over the Coronavirus might be at least an order of magnitude less.
This bar graph makes it crystal clear:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-death-rates-age-charts-us-china
metmike: If we did away with flu shots and allowed the vast majority of sick/elderly that are now protected from the consequences of the full impact of the flu, that protected portion of people would experience a HUGE increase in deaths(for the old AND sick, at least 2-3 times, if not much more)............maybe not as great as that from the Coronavirus but certainly much closer to it. This explains much of the increased death rate.
Look how low the death rate is for people under 50!!
0.2% is 1 out of 500 for you folks under 40!
0.0% is NOBODY for you little geniuses under 10 years, that read MarketForum (-:
So its not that the Coronavirus is that much more deadly than the flu..........it's because many of the ones that are sick and old that would die from the flu............but are protected by the vaccine are not protected by a Coronavirus vaccine.
Once a vaccine is developed this will all go away. Once people realize what the real facts are...........it will start getting better.
Related to this:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm
There are many reasons to get an influenza (flu) vaccine each year. Below is a summary of the benefits of flu vaccination, and selected scientific studies that support these benefits.
metmike: I have only had the flu 1 time during the last 30 years and a cold twice because of my autoimmune disorder and over active immune system. After learning more about the flu this year, I will be getting a flu shot before every flu season!!
https://betterhealthwhileaging.net/flu-shots-in-aging-what-to-know/
"Depending on the year, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that every year, influenza affects 9-60 million Americans, causes 140,000-710,100 hospitalizations, and results in 12,000-56,000 deaths.
Influenza is more severe in some years than others. For instance, the 2017-2018 season was particularly severe, with an estimated 80,000 deaths related to the flu. The 2018-2019 season wasn’t as bad, but still had a real impact: the CDC estimates that there were 37.4 million to 42.9 million flu illnesses last year, causing an estimated 36,400 – 61,200 flu deaths.
Now, most people get better without needing hospitalization, but some people get very sick. Older adults are especially likely to get dangerously ill from catching the flu."
metmike: Keep this flu information in mind when you look at the Coronavirus statistics. They will NOT get anywhere close to the numbers above.
Things might be much different right now, if this was only a virulent strain of the flu that we have come to live and die with for decades............even if it was affecting our health exactly like it is.
We wouldn't be so afraid of something we have accepted, understand better, know the worst case scenario of and especially have a vaccine for.
One fact that is left out of these statistics on death rates for both corona and flu is that not all cases are counted. Many experience mild symptoms and never make it into the data base which leads to a natural inflation. Were all cases counted, the "curve" would be much lower.