Natural Gas
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Started by metmike - June 11, 2018, 9:48 a.m.

From Natural Gas Intelligence


July Set to Open Sharply Higher on Weather Forecast’s Flip to Lasting Heat

     8:57 AM    

July natural gas prices were set to open sharply higher at $2.948, up 5.8 cents, as the latest weather models indicated a ridge that was expected to dissipate now likely to saturate the middle of the country through the early part of the third week of June. 

Re: Natural Gas
By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:45 a.m.
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Looking at the price of natural gas at longer and longer time frames gives one a different(wider) if you are a day trader.........who cares (-:

               Natural  gas 3 month


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By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:48 a.m.
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Last weeks storage report:


+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region06/01/1805/25/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East351  328  23  23   452  -22.3  460  -23.7  
Midwest341  315  26  26   610  -44.1  505  -32.5  
Mountain121  113  8  8   171  -29.2  145  -16.6  
Pacific231  221  10  10   267  -13.5  279  -17.2  
South Central773  748  25  25   1,116  -30.7  940  -17.8  
   Salt245  235  10  10   345  -29.0  284  -13.7  
   Nonsalt528  514  14  14   771  -31.5  656  -19.5  
Total1,817  1,725  92  92   2,616  -30.5  2,329  -22.0  

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:51 a.m.
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Good article from last week on fundamentals in natural gas.

Hot Summer =$3+ for ng in my opinion

'Tremendous Growth' in Natural Gas Demand, Production Equals Flat Prices This Summer, Says NGSA




An analysis of weather forecasts, the economy, consumer demand, and production and storage of natural gas points to neutral price pressure this summer, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).

"Our expectation for flat price pressure is based on a forecast for tremendous growth in demand that is matched by even more impressive growth in production," NGSA said in its 2018 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was released Thursday.

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:52 a.m.
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More from the article:

"NGSA expects  record demand this summer to be "fueled by record growth in electric sector demand for natural gas due to massive natural gas-fired generation additions since last summer, along with temporary coal-to-gas switching" that together will add up to a 10% increase in demand from the sector compared with summer 2017. Demand from the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by 7% and industrial demand is expected to increase slightly as well.

At the same time, liquefied natural gas exports will increase 1.6 Bcf/d compared with last summer, and exports to Mexico will increase 0.5 Bcf/d, according to NGSA forecasts.

"When all sectors are combined, overall demand is projected to be more than 6 Bcf/d (9%) greater than the summer of 2017 and thus to place upward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last summer," NGSA said.

But that upward pressure will be met by production that "is projected to smash through previous robust levels," placing nearly equal downward pressure on prices.

In an assessment of energy markets released earlier this month, FERC said demand for gas from power generators may approach record highs this summer.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting natural gas power burn will average 35.16 Bcf/d in June, July and August, just 0.3 Bcf/d less than the record high set in summer 2016 and 3 Bcf/d higher than last year, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission analysis.

Using data from EIA and Energy Ventures Analysis, NGSA analyzes factors that place upward or downward pressure on natural gas prices, but does not forecast actual prices. In addition to the influence of demand and production, NGSA said expected higher gas injections into storage would place upward pressure on prices this summer, economic factors including steady growth in gross domestic product would bring neutral pressure, and weather conditions including temperatures expected to be 5% cooler than summer 2017 would produce downward pressure.

Wild card factors that could play a hand in summer natural gas prices include "an unpredicted and very active hurricane/storm season...which would mainly affect demand, since most onshore producing gas fields are not vulnerable to hurricanes," NGSA said."


Re: Natural Gas
By WxFollower - June 11, 2018, 12:13 p.m.
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 The early gains today are mainly due to a warmer late week 1 to early week 2 (6-10 day forecast) vs how that period looked on Friday.

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 2:19 p.m.
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You are probably right Larry.

The 7 day temps from last week thru Friday are below(used for the next EIA reporting period this Thursday)

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 4:16 p.m.
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Week 2 NWS outlooks, VERY warm...bullish natural gas if it verifies. Bu the heat lets up in TX.

Valid: June 17 to 21, 2018
Updated: 11 Jun 2018
Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability


8 to 14 Day Outlooks
Valid: June 19 to 25, 2018
Updated: 11 Jun 2018
Click below for information about how to read 8-14 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:02 p.m.
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Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:


Nymex, Spot Natural Gas Rally as Weather Outlooks Crank Up the Heat

     5:22 PM    

July natural gas futures started the week with a 5.9-cent rally to $2.949 as hotter trends showed up in medium-range weather forecasts, with lingering heat risks seen extending into the long-range