From Natural Gas Intelligence
July Set to Open Sharply Higher on Weather Forecast’s Flip to Lasting Heat
8:57 AM
July natural gas prices were set to open sharply higher at $2.948, up 5.8 cents, as the latest weather models indicated a ridge that was expected to dissipate now likely to saturate the middle of the country through the early part of the third week of June.
Looking at the price of natural gas at longer and longer time frames gives one a different(wider) perspective...........now if you are a day trader.........who cares (-:
Natural gas 3 month
Natural gas 1 year below
Natural gas 5 years below
Natural gas 10 years below |
Last weeks storage report:
+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (06/01/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 06/01/18 | 05/25/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 351 | 328 | 23 | 23 | 452 | -22.3 | 460 | -23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 341 | 315 | 26 | 26 | 610 | -44.1 | 505 | -32.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 121 | 113 | 8 | 8 | 171 | -29.2 | 145 | -16.6 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 231 | 221 | 10 | 10 | 267 | -13.5 | 279 | -17.2 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 773 | 748 | 25 | 25 | 1,116 | -30.7 | 940 | -17.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 245 | 235 | 10 | 10 | 345 | -29.0 | 284 | -13.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 528 | 514 | 14 | 14 | 771 | -31.5 | 656 | -19.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 1,817 | 1,725 | 92 | 92 | 2,616 | -30.5 | 2,329 | -22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Good article from last week on fundamentals in natural gas.
Hot Summer =$3+ for ng in my opinion
An analysis of weather forecasts, the economy, consumer demand, and production and storage of natural gas points to neutral price pressure this summer, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).
"Our expectation for flat price pressure is based on a forecast for tremendous growth in demand that is matched by even more impressive growth in production," NGSA said in its 2018 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was released Thursday.
More from the article:
"NGSA expects record demand this summer to be "fueled by record growth in electric sector demand for natural gas due to massive natural gas-fired generation additions since last summer, along with temporary coal-to-gas switching" that together will add up to a 10% increase in demand from the sector compared with summer 2017. Demand from the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by 7% and industrial demand is expected to increase slightly as well.
At the same time, liquefied natural gas exports will increase 1.6 Bcf/d compared with last summer, and exports to Mexico will increase 0.5 Bcf/d, according to NGSA forecasts.
"When all sectors are combined, overall demand is projected to be more than 6 Bcf/d (9%) greater than the summer of 2017 and thus to place upward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last summer," NGSA said.
But that upward pressure will be met by production that "is projected to smash through previous robust levels," placing nearly equal downward pressure on prices.
In an assessment of energy markets released earlier this month, FERC said demand for gas from power generators may approach record highs this summer.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting natural gas power burn will average 35.16 Bcf/d in June, July and August, just 0.3 Bcf/d less than the record high set in summer 2016 and 3 Bcf/d higher than last year, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission analysis.
Using data from EIA and Energy Ventures Analysis, NGSA analyzes factors that place upward or downward pressure on natural gas prices, but does not forecast actual prices. In addition to the influence of demand and production, NGSA said expected higher gas injections into storage would place upward pressure on prices this summer, economic factors including steady growth in gross domestic product would bring neutral pressure, and weather conditions including temperatures expected to be 5% cooler than summer 2017 would produce downward pressure.
Wild card factors that could play a hand in summer natural gas prices include "an unpredicted and very active hurricane/storm season...which would mainly affect demand, since most onshore producing gas fields are not vulnerable to hurricanes," NGSA said."
The early gains today are mainly due to a warmer late week 1 to early week 2 (6-10 day forecast) vs how that period looked on Friday.
You are probably right Larry.
The 7 day temps from last week thru Friday are below(used for the next EIA reporting period this Thursday)
Week 2 NWS outlooks, VERY warm...bullish natural gas if it verifies. Bu the heat lets up in TX. | |
Valid: June 17 to 21, 2018 Updated: 11 Jun 2018 | |
Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability Very |
8 to 14 Day Outlooks | |
Valid: June 19 to 25, 2018 Updated: 11 Jun 2018 | |
Click below for information about how to read 8-14 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:
Nymex, Spot Natural Gas Rally as Weather Outlooks Crank Up the Heat
5:22 PM
July natural gas futures started the week with a 5.9-cent rally to $2.949 as hotter trends showed up in medium-range weather forecasts, with lingering heat risks seen extending into the long-range