KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 1172.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +55.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 265.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 6418.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +78.6%)
8:30 AM ET. February New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.50M; previous 1.567M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -4.3%; previous -3.6%)
Building Permits (expected 1.49M; previous 1.551M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -3.9%; previous +9.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 451.783M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.664M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 246.999M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.049M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 128.06M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.404M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.86M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.588M)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 1.6%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 1.6%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 1.9%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.75)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.50)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as the roller coaster ride continues. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 6796.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8348.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7782.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8348.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6906.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly crossing at 6796.94.
The June S&P 500 was lower in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 2359.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2897.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2672.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2897.67. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2382.60. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 2359.10.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 164-24 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 182-21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 182-21. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 164-24. Second support is February's low crossing at 159-18.
June T-notes were lower overnight as they extend the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.082 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.082. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.048.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 41.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.04. Second resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 41.05. First support is the overnight low crossing at 25.06. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 137.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.37. Second residential is last-Monday's gap crossing at 137.83. First support is the overnight low crossing at 101.04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 68.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 102.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at 67.78. Second support is monthly support crossing at 68.40.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.530 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.903 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during March. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.903. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.024. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.610. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.530.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 101.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 100.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 101.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.80. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.45.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 108.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.40. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.45. First support is the overnight low crossing at 109.99. Second support is February's low crossing at 108.53.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, downside targets are unknown. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2762 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2612. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2762. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1943. Second support is unknown.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0434 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1.0698 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.0698. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0943. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0434. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.0240.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 72.85 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.85. Second resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 74.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at 69.78. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0992. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.01009. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1412.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1614.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1589.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1614.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1450.90. Second support the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1412.50.
May silver was lower in late-overnight trading as it extended this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $16.552 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $15.379. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.552. First support is Monday's low crossing at $11.770. Second support is the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400.
May copper was sharply lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at $217.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $251.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $244.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $251.28. First support is the overnight low crossing at $219.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at $217.37.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.71 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.65. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.71. First support is the overnight low crossing at $3.36 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.79 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.11 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.79 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.08 1/2-cents at $4.32 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-September's low crossing at $4.08 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.51 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.51 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.20. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.08 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.40 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.03. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this year's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.77 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.59 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.77 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.21. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.
May soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the November 18th high crossing at 315.30 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $295.60 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $290.70. First resistance is March's high crossing at $310.90. Second resistance is the November 18th high crossing at 315.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $295.60. Second support is February's low crossing at $290.70.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 21.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.26. First support is Monday's low crossing at 24.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 21.54.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $4.50 at $58.48.
April hogs closed limit up on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $63.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $47.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $61.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $63.21. First support is Monday's low crossing at $52.13. Second support is weekly support crossing at $47.83.
April cattle closed up $4.50 at $96.35.
April cattle closed limit up on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, long-term support crossing at $83.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $102.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at $91.08. Second support is long-term support crossing at $83.41.
May Feeder cattle closed up $1.88-cents at $109.98.
May Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $102.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $131.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $124.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $131.08. First support is Monday's low crossing at $109.98. Second support is weekly support crossing at $102.55.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 9.96 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 11.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 22.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the September-2019 low crossing at 10.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 56.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.38 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.