INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 20, 2020, 8:03 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, March 20, 2020 



10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales



                       Existing Sales (expected 5.50M; previous 5.46M)



                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous -1.3%)



                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)



                       Median Price (USD) (previous 266300)



                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)



10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment



Monday, March 23, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. February CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index



                       NAI (previous -0.25)



                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.09)



10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade



10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Industry



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as investors may be ready to put some faith in a barrage of supportive central-bank action to help shore up economies against the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8138.94 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 6796.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7559.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8138.94. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6810.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly crossing at 6796.94.  



The June S&P 500 was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 2028.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2800.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2553.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2800.91. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 2314.30. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2028.01. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidated some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 177-00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 165-15 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 182-21. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 165-15. Second support is February's low crossing at 159-18.  



June T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.211 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.135 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.211. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.135. Second support is February's low crossing at 130.025.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.17. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 20.06. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.



April heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.50. Second residential is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.44. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 93.43. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.   



April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 47.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.14. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.77. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 62.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 47.80. 



April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.883 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.530 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.883. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.024. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.555. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.530.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 103.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.93. 



The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 106.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.24. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 112.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 107.02. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.54.     



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, downside targets are unknown. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2614 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2304. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2614. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1438. Second support is unknown.



The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 0.9987 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0536 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0425. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0500. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0164. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9987.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 72.85 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If June extends the decline off December's high, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.02. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 68.20. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09.  



The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 0.0897. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0992. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0904. Second support is February's low crossing at 0.0897.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1412.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1598.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1558.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1598.60. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1450.90. Second support the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1412.50.



May silver was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $15.928 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $14.349. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.928. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $11.640. Second support is the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400. 



May copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $246.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $236.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $246.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $197.25 Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.67 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.58 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.67 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.32. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4.    



May wheat was higher overnight as it extended the rebound off Monday's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.45 would open the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.14 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.79 3/4.

   

May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.19-cents at $4.65 1/2.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.48 3/4 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, February's high crossing at $4.93 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.78 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $4.93 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40. Second support is Monday's low crossing at $4.20.    



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.39. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.03. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this year's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.72 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.72 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.21. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.    



May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, October's high crossing at 322.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $301.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $320.50. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 322.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $301.20. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at $295.60.     



May soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 21.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.76. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 24.68. Second support is monthly support crossing at 21.54.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $3.00 at $61.15. 



April hogs closed limit up on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $47.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.38. First support is Monday's low crossing at $52.13. Second support is weekly support crossing at $47.83.   



April cattle closed up $3.00 at $95.10. 



April cattle closed limit up on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, long-term support crossing at $83.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.26. First support is Monday's low crossing at $91.08. Second support is long-term support crossing at $83.41.  

 

May Feeder cattle closed up $4.50-cents at $113.25. 



May Feeder cattle closed limit up on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $102.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $127.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.14. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $127.76. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $102.55.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 11.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 9.96 is the next downside target. 



May cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-2018 low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.              



May sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



May cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extended this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 54.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.01 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



Comments
By metmike - March 20, 2020, 2:04 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.


Mainly the coronavirus news and reactions.


Temps look mild in early April for ng.............too late for HDD to matter much.


Planting weather is usually important as we get into April, mainly for early planting of corn. The CV has obliterated the unleaded gas price from the shut downs and demand destruction and this is killing the corn market as lack of blending of ethanol to gas not sold will cause ethanol supplies to turn into a massive glut. 


Ethanol plants will likely have to shut down.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/