gdp forcast - atlanta fed
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Started by bear - March 21, 2020, 2:35 p.m.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


we are seeing a divergence here.  industry is pointing lower,  while the fed is revising higher. 

remember this is still just a projection for the 1st qrt.  but with things shutting down across the nation, i don't see gdp going higher,  even for the 1st qrt.  

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By TimNew - March 22, 2020, 7:28 a.m.
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The 1st qtr was progressing nicely until we started feeling the eco repercussions of the virus at the very end.  I would not be surprised at a 3+%  reading.   The 2nd qtr will very probably be a different story, unless something changes very quickly. A negative GDP would not be an unreasonable expectation. 3rd qtr?   We'll see how things look in July.

By metmike - March 22, 2020, 12:57 p.m.
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"The 2nd qtr will very probably be a different story, unless something changes very quickly. A negative GDP would not be an unreasonable expectation."


Understatement of the day Tim!

How would it not be a negative GDP? 

By TimNew - March 22, 2020, 1:40 p.m.
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I'd say a negative GDP is a likely outcome, but 3 months is a long time with all these dynamics.  The stimulus may mitigate that slightly.  But when this is perceived as under control, there will likely be a significant surge in economic activity. Could that happen in May or June?   I don't know.