Fund positions March 27 report
3 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 28, 2020, 1:43 p.m.

@kannbwx

Money managers, thru March 24:

Sold CBOT #corn f+o, net short 108.6k contracts

Bought #soybeans, net short 2,444

Bought CBOT #wheat, net long 17.7k

Bought #soymeal, net long 39.1k (record buying streak) 

The soy, meal, and wheat moves were the result of short covering.ImageImageImageImage

Comments
By metmike - March 28, 2020, 1:52 p.m.
Like Reply


@kannbwx

·

This week's wild COT chart is outright shorts in CBOT #soymeal fut+opt. 

In the 4 weeks ended March 24, funds dumped 103.4k meal shorts - more than double the pre-March 2020 4-week record. 

Gross shorts now 17.3k, fewest since June 2018. Net long 16.1kRightwards arrow39.1k thru Mar 24.Image

By MarkB - March 29, 2020, 1:04 a.m.
Like Reply

In response to the corn position. Who is going to be able to afford our corn at the current prices? Part of the damage that the corona virus has caused. And nothing to do with supply and planting as yet. Same with beans.


I'm beginning to think that we will not see the seasonal rise as soon, during the planting season. Something like the 2014-15 year.

By metmike - March 29, 2020, 12:25 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Mark,

What is really killing the corn is the demand destruction from everything shutting down. 

Unleaded spiked to 38c last Monday. Of all the insane market moves, that one stood out the most.

38c for the front month futures of gasoline......WOW!


It closed higher than that but the market sees the demand falling off of a cliff.

This is going to also kill demand for ethanol which is blended with the gasoline, either 10% or 15%.

I thought I read that something like 2 billion gallons of ethanol will NOT be blended.

Total amount is something like 17 billion.

MANY ethanol plants will be shutting down.

I'll get the exact numbers but close to 40% of the production of our corn crop goes to making ethanol. So this massive source of demand for corn is drying up.

The balance sheet for corn has suddenly become extraordinarily bearish because we just lost so much demand for ethanol. 

This will come back after the economy recovers but that may not happen completely until we have a vaccine.