Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - March 31, 2020, 7:52 p.m.

Happy March 31st!

Happy smiley between sad ones — Stock Photo


                                    Tough to be optimistic in this current environment but


 Despite the current pandemic, we still live in the best time of human history. This Coronavirus panic will be peaking............maybe sooner than you think.  The markets have dialed in a lot of really, really bad news already. We still have a ways to go but the shut downs will result  in #infected stats peaking. This WILL happen.  When the numbers stop going higher........the panic will be over.  


              NEW:   Coronavirus and weather-Good news!            

                   Started by metmike - March 23, 2020, 10:58 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49391/


Latest COVID-19 numbers. The rate of increase has slowed the last 6 days compared to the previous 6 days! Mitigation is starting to have an effect. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/


 9pm Tue: A closer look and the models have shifted to much colder after day 10.........after a milder week 1. Likely too late to matter a lot to natural gas. Also wetter in the Cornbelt in week 2.  Early planting of corn, ideally starts in April. Could start to be bullish for corn if it continues. Warm/humid weather "could" also decrease the survival time of COVID-19.


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.



Never too old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


Winter Weather Forecasts


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  


Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

Comments
By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:06 p.m.
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MUCH Warmer temps than forecast late last week............and more humid!!!

"Potentially" helping to lower the survival time of the coronavirus in the air based on seasonality of almost all virus's and scientific studies. 


Coronavirus and weather-Good news!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49391/


Highs for days 3-7:

 


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                                      

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:07 p.m.
Like Reply

Warming to above average(with higher humidity) in red in the East/South...........let's kick some COVID-19 butt!


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

                                    

                                    


            

                

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:12 p.m.
Like Reply

Surface Weather features day 3-7:


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:31 p.m.
Like Reply

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


Moderate rains central Cornbelt and Upper Midwest.  

Mostly light Eastern/Cornbelt.


We need to start drying out before the end of the month to get the planting show on the road.............or it will begin to getting bullish for corn. 


Day 1 below:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

                                    


By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:32 p.m.
Like Reply

Excessive rain potential.


Not a very high threat this week.


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

                                    


By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

We could see a slight risk in a few spots in the Plains and points just east of that.


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
               
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
         
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                F
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    

                                    


By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:35 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg


By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:36 p.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

Precip the last 30 days from that source:

                                    


            

                

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Wet soils in the Midwest with planting ideally starting in April in the south,  Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will start turning bullish for corn.

The Early April forecast has shifted much warmer since last week but also much wetter, especially in the 2nd week of April.

Last week, we were expecting widespread below average precip for the first week in April...........now it looks like average(drier Eastern Cornbelt).

Then above average precip during the 2nd week of April.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    


By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


 March 26: No drought anywhere in the Midwest. 0% drought there.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/  



                                  Drought Monitor for conus

                       

Drought Monitor for conus

      

                                    


            

                

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:52 p.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:


Sunday: 12z run. Very mild!

Tuesday:  Very mild average but a wide spread in individual solutions on the pattern.

Wednesday: Warm and wet........stormy.

Thursday: Nothing exciting. 

Sunday: Mild to Warm on this model and European model.

Tuesday: Big differences. Some are warm and wet. Some are chilly but drier.

Thursday: Still huge differences with a battle between the northern stream(-AO/-NAO) and southern stream. European model was MUCH colder overnight.

Saturday: Big spread with regards to how much northern stream and how much southern stream will affect our weather.

Sunday: More southern stream, more active and wetter. A minority still have some northern stream.

Monday: Ridge building in the Southeast.........warm and humid there. Trough Rockies to Plains............chilly there. Increasing precipitation.  Could turn pretty wet.

Tuesday:  Active southern stream and WET. However, a significant number of solutions have a strong northern stream influence so there is a wide spread in solutions and especially in handling the northern stream. What looks most likely is colder air from Canada penetrating fairly far south in the middle of the country, while the southern stream sends perturbations from the Southwest, aimed at the southcentral US and moisture flows northward ahead of them.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 15, 2020 12UTC

GZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast    

   
By metmike - March 31, 2020, 9:57 p.m.
Like Reply

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

                                    


By metmike - March 31, 2020, 11:46 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


Sunday: Positive anomaly over Greenland and weak negative anomaly in the Northeast..........chilly Northeast/Great Lakes area. 

Tuesday:  Huge positive anomaly in the N.Pacific to Alaska for weeks is backing waaay up westward.  Weak negative anomaly off the West Coast. Weak positive anomaly in the Midwest.  Nothing to write home about. Mild temps.

Wednesday: Modest positive anomalies.  Mild to warm.

Sunday: Huge Pattern change? Building positive anomaly NE Canada to Greenland, back to US Rockies/Plains, negative anomaly Southeast Canada to Northeast .........means chilly Northeast US. Warmer and drier Rockies/Plains, with modest positive anomalies.  Potential for AO and NAO to go negative for the first time this year.

Tuesday: Potential pattern change on this model. Positive anomaly West/Rockies to Central Canada.  modest negative anomalies along the East Coast. Drier pattern for sure. How cool will it get in the East? Warmth greatest/shifting West.

Saturday: Colder before this late week 2 period with the maps below not showing any impressive anomalies.

Monday: Weak anomalies. Modest positive in the Southeast. Warm and humid there. Modest negative Southwest............storm track and precip between these features.

Tuesday:  Positive anomaly Southeast with upper level ridge, pumping up warm humid air. Negative anomaly western 1/3 to 1/2 with cooler air. In between, a storm track and loads of moisture. Another stronger positive anomaly in the North Pacific to Alaska. Also negative anomaly in Southeast Canada that would help chilly air to push south of the US border. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 11:49 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

                                    

Last Sunday:  AO and NAO go negative for the first time in months. PNA increases greatly. Big pattern change potential. Warming up West to Plains........turning chilly Northeast. Also drying out with air masses going from higher to middle latitudes vs southern stream driven air masses with Gulf moisture. 

Tuesday: These indices are telling us its going to cool off in the East to Midwest compared to the recent pattern. AO and NAO go negative, PNA increases greatly. Warmth will be West.  Also drier.

Saturday: AO goes a bit negative, then a wide spread. NAO shifts solidly negative, indicating MUCH cooler weather in the Mideast/East.  PNA increases to a bit positive with a wide spread...........cooler to the East and also drier but warmer West.

Monday: AO back to more positive and unfavorable for cold to move from high to mid latitudes.  NAO dips below 0 but turns back up late week 2........warming in the East then.. PNA gets above 0 but drops again late week 2.

                                    

Tuesday: A0 drops slightly below 0 then is around 0. NAO drops a bit below 0.........I think that this will cause some chilly Canadian air to push south of the border. PNA is negative, then close to 0.                 

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 11:50 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

                          

By metmike - March 31, 2020, 11:50 p.m.
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John Kassell@JPKassell


It is important to understand where the geographic hotspots for tornado activity are during tornado season. Four main corridors where climatology tells us that tornadoes are most likely to occur: *Tornado Alley * Dixie Alley * Hoosier Alley * Carolina Alley Map: Mike Frates

Image


                                    


                                    


            

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

@BigJoeBastardi

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CFSV2 La Nina implication,  Drier hotter summer in plains than last year,  Active hurricane season, globaly temp drop  but still not back to 30 yr average

Image