Happy March 31st!
Tough to be optimistic in this current environment but
Despite the current pandemic, we still live in the best time of human history. This Coronavirus panic will be peaking............maybe sooner than you think. The markets have dialed in a lot of really, really bad news already. We still have a ways to go but the shut downs will result in #infected stats peaking. This WILL happen. When the numbers stop going higher........the panic will be over.
NEW: Coronavirus and weather-Good news!
Started by metmike - March 23, 2020, 10:58 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49391/
Latest COVID-19 numbers. The rate of increase has slowed the last 6 days compared to the previous 6 days! Mitigation is starting to have an effect.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/
9pm Tue: A closer look and the models have shifted to much colder after day 10.........after a milder week 1. Likely too late to matter a lot to natural gas. Also wetter in the Cornbelt in week 2. Early planting of corn, ideally starts in April. Could start to be bullish for corn if it continues. Warm/humid weather "could" also decrease the survival time of COVID-19.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Never too old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
MUCH Warmer temps than forecast late last week............and more humid!!!
"Potentially" helping to lower the survival time of the coronavirus in the air based on seasonality of almost all virus's and scientific studies.
Coronavirus and weather-Good news!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49391/
Highs for days 3-7:
Warming to above average(with higher humidity) in red in the East/South...........let's kick some COVID-19 butt!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Moderate rains central Cornbelt and Upper Midwest.
Mostly light Eastern/Cornbelt.
We need to start drying out before the end of the month to get the planting show on the road.............or it will begin to getting bullish for corn.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Not a very high threat this week.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Precip the last 30 days from that source:
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting ideally starting in April in the south, Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will start turning bullish for corn.
The Early April forecast has shifted much warmer since last week but also much wetter, especially in the 2nd week of April.
Last week, we were expecting widespread below average precip for the first week in April...........now it looks like average(drier Eastern Cornbelt).
Then above average precip during the 2nd week of April.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
March 26: No drought anywhere in the Midwest. 0% drought there.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Sunday: 12z run. Very mild!
Tuesday: Very mild average but a wide spread in individual solutions on the pattern.
Wednesday: Warm and wet........stormy.
Thursday: Nothing exciting.
Sunday: Mild to Warm on this model and European model.
Tuesday: Big differences. Some are warm and wet. Some are chilly but drier.
Thursday: Still huge differences with a battle between the northern stream(-AO/-NAO) and southern stream. European model was MUCH colder overnight.
Saturday: Big spread with regards to how much northern stream and how much southern stream will affect our weather.
Sunday: More southern stream, more active and wetter. A minority still have some northern stream.
Monday: Ridge building in the Southeast.........warm and humid there. Trough Rockies to Plains............chilly there. Increasing precipitation. Could turn pretty wet.
Tuesday: Active southern stream and WET. However, a significant number of solutions have a strong northern stream influence so there is a wide spread in solutions and especially in handling the northern stream. What looks most likely is colder air from Canada penetrating fairly far south in the middle of the country, while the southern stream sends perturbations from the Southwest, aimed at the southcentral US and moisture flows northward ahead of them.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 15, 2020 12UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Sunday: Positive anomaly over Greenland and weak negative anomaly in the Northeast..........chilly Northeast/Great Lakes area.
Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly in the N.Pacific to Alaska for weeks is backing waaay up westward. Weak negative anomaly off the West Coast. Weak positive anomaly in the Midwest. Nothing to write home about. Mild temps.
Wednesday: Modest positive anomalies. Mild to warm.
Sunday: Huge Pattern change? Building positive anomaly NE Canada to Greenland, back to US Rockies/Plains, negative anomaly Southeast Canada to Northeast .........means chilly Northeast US. Warmer and drier Rockies/Plains, with modest positive anomalies. Potential for AO and NAO to go negative for the first time this year.
Tuesday: Potential pattern change on this model. Positive anomaly West/Rockies to Central Canada. modest negative anomalies along the East Coast. Drier pattern for sure. How cool will it get in the East? Warmth greatest/shifting West.
Saturday: Colder before this late week 2 period with the maps below not showing any impressive anomalies.
Monday: Weak anomalies. Modest positive in the Southeast. Warm and humid there. Modest negative Southwest............storm track and precip between these features.
Tuesday: Positive anomaly Southeast with upper level ridge, pumping up warm humid air. Negative anomaly western 1/3 to 1/2 with cooler air. In between, a storm track and loads of moisture. Another stronger positive anomaly in the North Pacific to Alaska. Also negative anomaly in Southeast Canada that would help chilly air to push south of the US border.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Sunday: AO and NAO go negative for the first time in months. PNA increases greatly. Big pattern change potential. Warming up West to Plains........turning chilly Northeast. Also drying out with air masses going from higher to middle latitudes vs southern stream driven air masses with Gulf moisture.
Tuesday: These indices are telling us its going to cool off in the East to Midwest compared to the recent pattern. AO and NAO go negative, PNA increases greatly. Warmth will be West. Also drier.
Saturday: AO goes a bit negative, then a wide spread. NAO shifts solidly negative, indicating MUCH cooler weather in the Mideast/East. PNA increases to a bit positive with a wide spread...........cooler to the East and also drier but warmer West.
Monday: AO back to more positive and unfavorable for cold to move from high to mid latitudes. NAO dips below 0 but turns back up late week 2........warming in the East then.. PNA gets above 0 but drops again late week 2.
Tuesday: A0 drops slightly below 0 then is around 0. NAO drops a bit below 0.........I think that this will cause some chilly Canadian air to push south of the border. PNA is negative, then close to 0.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
It is important to understand where the geographic hotspots for tornado activity are during tornado season. Four main corridors where climatology tells us that tornadoes are most likely to occur: *Tornado Alley * Dixie Alley * Hoosier Alley * Carolina Alley Map: Mike Frates
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CFSV2 La Nina implication, Drier hotter summer in plains than last year, Active hurricane season, globaly temp drop but still not back to 30 yr average