Natural Gas April 1, 2020
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Started by metmike - April 1, 2020, 10:59 p.m.

Weather in April usually takes a back seat to other factors for natural gas.

Too late in the heating season to generate enough demand for significant HDD's compared to Winter.

Too early in the cooling season to generate enough demand for significant CDD's compared to Summer.


The huge factor is the amount of demand destruction being created by COVID-19.

With so many businesses shut down, industrial demand has fallen off of a cliff.

The EIA report out tomorrow will shed some light on this.

Price plunge, coronavirus pandemic affect all sectors of US natural gas industry            

        

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/033020-price-plunge-coronavirus-pandemic-affect-all-sectors-of-us-natural-gas-industry

                               

Month-to-date, US industrial demand is down 900 MMcf/d compared with March 2019, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

  

      

  

In the most affected areas of the US, declines in commercial sector loads at offices, schools and retail establishments are outweighing gains in residential demand, reducing power use and changing hourly load profiles, according to Platts Analytics. This is evident in New York City, as rising COVID-19 cases led to the closure of non-essential business and prompted residents to remain at home.

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By metmike - April 1, 2020, 11 p.m.
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Wednesday after the close from Natural Gas Intelligence:

                  

Another Down Day for Natural Gas Futures Ahead of Highly Anticipated EIA Report

     5:27 PM    

Natural gas traders continued to sell off positions Wednesday in anticipation of critical data that may offer the first clues on how much U.S. demand has been lost in the wake of the coronavirus. The May Nymex gas futures contract hit a $1.679/MMBtu intraday high but ultimately settled at $1.587, down 5.3 cents day/day. June fell 4.4 cents to $1.712

By metmike - April 1, 2020, 11:02 p.m.
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By metmike - April 1, 2020, 11:03 p.m.
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From last week:

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 20, 2020   |  Released: March 26, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 2, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -29 BCF slightly bullish?

(but demand destruction lies ahead) (also, much cooler temps in week 2 but its very late in the heating season)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/20/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region03/20/2003/13/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East398  412  -14  -14   231  72.3  301  32.2  
Midwest492  512  -20  -20   254  93.7  379  29.8  
Mountain92  96  -4  -4   62  48.4  110  -16.4  
Pacific194  199  -5  -5   102  90.2  201  -3.5  
South Central829  814  15  15   468  77.1  723  14.7  
   Salt258  247  11  11   136  89.7  209  23.4  
   Nonsalt571  568  3  3   331  72.5  514  11.1  
Total2,005  2,034  -29  -29   1,117  79.5  1,713  17.0  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,005 Bcf as of Friday, March 20, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 29 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 888 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 292 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,713 Bcf. At 2,005 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 

https://www.oilandgas360.com/weekly-gas-storage-5-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2/



https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 


U.S. Natural Gas Storage

  L atest Release  Mar 26, 2020  Actual-29B  Forecast-25B   Previous-9B

                                                   

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Apr 02, 2020 10:30 -24B-29B
Mar 26, 2020 10:30-29B-25B-9B
Mar 19, 2020 10:30-9B-6B-48B
Mar 12, 2020 10:30-48B-59B-109B
Mar 05, 2020 11:30-109B-108B-143B
Feb 27, 2020 11:30-143B-158B-151B


By metmike - April 1, 2020, 11:05 p.m.
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7 day temperatures, ending last Friday,  for Thursday's EIA report.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20200327.7day.mean.F.gif


Wednesday after the close from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Another Down Day for Natural Gas Futures Ahead of Highly Anticipated EIA Report


Thursday morning early comment from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Natural Gas Steady as EIA Data Could Show ‘First Solid Indication’ of Covid-19’s Effects

By metmike - April 2, 2020, 11:18 a.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 27, 2020   |  Released: April 2, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 9, 2020 

              

-19 BCF  slightly bearish but expected

                                                                                                                                                   

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/27/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region03/27/2003/20/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East382  398  -16  -16   214  78.5  283  35.0  
Midwest476  492  -16  -16   243  95.9  363  31.1  
Mountain92  92  0  0   63  46.0  111  -17.1  
Pacific197  194  3  3   110  79.1  204  -3.4  
South Central840  829  11  11   492  70.7  733  14.6  
   Salt256  258  -2  -2   151  69.5  215  19.1  
   Nonsalt585  571  14  14   342  71.1  518  12.9  
Total1,986  2,005  -19  -19   1,123  76.8  1,694  17.2  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,986 Bcf as of Friday, March 27, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 19 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 863 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 292 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,694 Bcf. At 1,986 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 


By metmike - April 2, 2020, 11:28 a.m.
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Latest Release     Apr 02, 2020     Actual-19B    Forecast-24B     Previous-29B            


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Apr 02, 2020 10:30-19B-24B-29B
Mar 26, 2020 10:30-29B-25B-9B
Mar 19, 2020 10:30-9B-6B-48B
Mar 12, 2020 10:30-48B-59B-109B
Mar 05, 2020 11:30-109B-108B-143B
Feb 27, 2020 11:30-143B-158B-151B
By metmike - April 2, 2020, 3:25 p.m.
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By metmike - April 2, 2020, 3:46 p.m.
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1.521 NGK was the spike low several minutes after the bearish EIA report, which was the low yesterday as well.


I'll have to check on the last time prices were this low in April. My guess is 1999.


We are currently at 1.555 -0.032.

Whats a bit interesting is that week 2 is looking sharply colder with some decent HDD's for the 2nd week in April.

Just checked and the cold hits in less than a week and  the first wave hits the northeast with the coldest.

It's too late to make a huge difference in storage but record cold might generate a short term short covering bounce/spike. 

Might is the operative word. With massive demand destruction for the next few months, the piddly draws from a week long April cold wave won't mean much in the big picture.


But as a weather trader, it does get my attention.


This cold may be greatest in the Midwest/Plains where it will be bad for early corn planting as precip looks to be above normal. It's a month early to get REALLY excited above planting delays but if that pattern continues for a couple more weeks, it will not be TOO early, after last years record PP acres from planting NOT done for the market to start reacting.

But this is a ng thread

By metmike - April 2, 2020, 5:07 p.m.
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I just checked my records going back to 1993, which is the farthest back my daily charts go and we have never traded this low in the month of April since April 1993.

Prices WERE lower than this a few times earlier in the year during the 1990's like the spike lower below 1.3 in mid January 1995 but the strong historical/seasonal of rising prices has caused all prices to be higher than this by the time April rolled around...........for sure after 1992. 

I found some monthly charts in my library and prices were lower than this in 91-92, just below 1.5 in April of those years. 

Should we drop much more, let's say to 1.4, that will be the lowest price for the last 3 decades during the month of April. 

I'm thinking that natural gas futures did not trade in the open market before 1990 because my records only start then.  I started trading in January 1992, while still chief meteorologist for WEHT until September 1993. 

By metmike - April 2, 2020, 5:54 p.m.
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By metmike - April 3, 2020, 4:39 p.m.
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Friday Forecast is MUCH colder and is probably a big reason for todays strong rally in Natural Gas!



Friday weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49986/

By metmike - April 3, 2020, 10:16 p.m.
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From Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Friday:


Late-Session Rally Boosts Natural Gas Futures as Weather Models Turn Chillier

     5:56 PM    

Even as Covid-19 continues to shatter demand across the Lower 48, weather reclaimed its dominance on natural gas futures Friday as persistently colder forecasts pushed up prices to end the week. After trading a few pennies higher for most the day, a late-session bid sent the May Nymex contract up 6.9 cents to settle at $1.621. June climbed 6.6 cents to $1.738

By metmike - April 5, 2020, 12:15 a.m.
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Sensational Saturday to you!

 Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50016/


Unseasonably cold air mass coming in next week after a warm start.

By WxFollower - April 5, 2020, 3:11 a.m.
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Mike,

 What a crazy start to April for NG! I don't recall seeing anything like itl

 In the background, the models/forecasts kept getting colder from Wednesday through Friday, something not seen often at all. As I assume you know, the total implied demand increases were pretty substantial, especially for this late in the heating season when swings are usually not nearly as large as in winter. I estimate a 40-50 bcf increase in wx forecast implied demand for Wed-Fri on models/forecasts increasing HDDs by 25-30 , not exactly chickenfeed for a commodity at 25 year lows! The main part of the cooling was for April 8-13 though most of the earlier and later days also had some cooling 

 May NG initially rose substantially early Wednesday to 1.679 (~5.5 cents from earlier that morning) apparently due to colder wx and despite the Dow futures being down ~750. Then later in the morning, it sharply reversed after the good rally and went down for the day late even after a quite bullish 12Z GEFS to a session low of 1.580 largely as a result of the Dow ending near the low of the day of ~-900/virus.

 On Wed evening into early Thu morning, May NG rose back to 1.624 on even colder wx outlooks but it peaked quite early despite the Dow being either up or near steady. Subsequently it dropped a lot and was down in the 1.540s just before the EIA. Then came the slightly bearish EIA, which knocked it down only slightly to the session low of 1.521. But almost at the same time, crude suddenly skyrocketed ~30% on the news of proposed world oil production cuts!! That in addition to the idea that the bearish EIA likely having already been priced into the 25 year NG low, the even colder wx forecasts, and a decently higher Dow all very likely played a part in allowing NG to rise to as high as the 1.570s before settling in the 1.550s and still down a few cents on the day.

 Then comes absolutely crazy Friday! The models/forecasts were even colder than Thursday's and made it the 3rd day in a row of pretty substantial cooling. But NG couldn't muster that much of a rise with it going up only to 1.582 just after 6 AM EDT. Then it fell ahead of the anticipated bearish March jobs report and hit a session low of 1.530 just after the report came out. Until the cash Dow opened at 9:30 AM, NG remained slightly down for the day in the 1.530s-1.540s. However, once the cash Dow opened, NG went + alongside another strong rise in crude despite the Dow falling most of the rest of the day. The rest of the session, NG rose substantially with some strong spurts especially late as crude continued to rise and despite a falling Dow. Whereas the 12Z model consensus was largely neutral vs that morning's 0Z, the fact that the 12Z consensus didn't warm up was very likely in itself a bullish factor since the 0Z Fri consensus was so much colder than the 0Z Tue consensus, NG was still only in the 1.50s and near 25 year lows vs the Tue close of 1.640, crude was very strong for the 2nd day in a row, and a weekend was approaching. So, NG had a strong late morning/afternoon despite a bearish Dow and jobs report. The most dramatic rise, which was on high volume, was a nearly 4 cent rise in less than 15 minutes after 3 PM EDT when the slightly colder 12Z (vs 0Z) Euro ens early week 2 was coming out. The high for the session was the last tick of the day at 1.659, meaning a nearly 13 cent range on the day and an 8+% rise from just 8.5 hours earlier!

By metmike - April 5, 2020, 3:19 p.m.
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Wonderful comprehensive/detailed and accurate description Larry.


We were oversold and had been bombarded with tons of mega bearish news during March and the lowest prices since the early 90's..............the recipe for a huge bullish surprise to trigger a ton of buying.

But the timing was so tricky. 

By WxFollower - April 5, 2020, 5:27 p.m.
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 Thanks, Mike. Yes, indeed, the timing of trading on wx has been trickier than normal since late Feb. because it hasn't appeared to have been as dominating (at least timing-wise) as is normal due to the coronavirus and its effect on equities and other markets like crude oil. Also, us now being in spring means wx isn't typically as dominating as in winter as you have stated despite HDDs still being much higher than CDDs. Until equities and crude calm down with regard to the virus, it will remain harder than normal to trade on wx. Besides, as you have stated, we're heading towards an even less wx driven period seasonally (as normal HDDs continue to drop substantially while CDDs rise only slowly) probably until we get well into May.

 Nevertheless, with the unusually strong swing to colder starting last Wed and still continuing and the still dirt cheap NG largely due to the quite mild winter and March, widespread BN in April has allowed wx to take on more importance since then and for now. It has done so in past cold Aprils, too. It will likely still be tricky to trade on it though as long as equities and crude remain extra wild.

 And now, here are the HDD comparisons between today at 12Z and Fri at 12Z (Aside: Fri at 0Z was similar to Fri at 12Z) for the same forecast days:

GEFS: +9

EPS: +10

 Whereas these are pretty solidly bullish vs the already quite bullish Fri runs, one has to wonder how much more it would rise, if any, this evening considering the significant Fri gains, especially if equity and crude futures happen to be down this evening (I have no prediction on those two markets).

 


 

By metmike - April 5, 2020, 7:29 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

If this were January with no pandemic and BIG HDD numbers vs average and with the close on the highs Friday, we could have opened with a gap higher, then kept going.

The cold is impressive for April but not enough to cause that sort of affect.

The mindset of a market that gaps higher and keeps going is that something is powerful enough to establish a completely higher trading range than the previous trading session. 

That's not to say the weather can't greatly enhance something else bullish for ng and then when we go up, traders may attribute it to the weather.

For instance, if the DOW is up 1,200 points on Monday(hypothetical) that may allow traders hesitant to buy on the bullish HDD number right now,  to feel  more comfortable buying because they have something else bullish to go with it.

But weather by itself is not doing it so far this evening. Enough to hold the gains but not go up more.

Another way to look at it is if you add up the demand/use of all the ng used up by the week+ of unseasonable cold, how does that compare with the demand destruction from the corona shutdowns?

Probably the market has already dialed in massive demand destruction when we were making almost 3 decade lows. But we are off the lows by $1,200/contract. 

To keep going higher, we might just need for traders to think last weeks 1.521, double bottom low on Wed, then Thu was THE bottom and low for this move.

Bearish news might have peaked on Wed, before the weather turned colder. The EIA report was a bit bearish, so the market knew that on Friday, when we went higher.

After unleaded spiked below 38c, just  2 weeks ago on Monday, it seems like anything is possible. 

Crude is down $2 right now but the Dow opened a bit lower I think and within seconds jumped higher and is +280 at the moment.

With COVID-19, the deaths, which are the end of the line, last lagging indicator will still be going up this week, so the media hyping/sensationalizing that could still be a negative but I am confident the infection rate has peaked and daily infections numbers are about to go lower and lower as the month goes on.

So it would seem the worst of the news is in the rear view mirror and worst case, scariest scenarios will be going away and more confidence will be returning.

If thats the environment, then some of these markets have a chance to recover. But if crude crashes back to $20 or the Dow drops by 1,500 then ng will probably ignore the cold.

One would think that end users are buying/hedging their needs until the year 2120 (-:

It's possible that some of them hedged alot earlier in the year, like February when it looked like the lows were in seasonally and like they often do and their hedges are under water(just speculating).

1.642 +.021 for the May NG right now.


By metmike - April 6, 2020, 12:02 a.m.
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CORONA SUBSIDING Sunday to you! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50061/


NGK last price 1.639  +0.39

By metmike - April 6, 2020, 12:34 p.m.
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Are #natgas traders preparing for a bull market? CFTC-reported money manager short exposure plunged 42,817 contracts last wk, bringing the 7-wk short-covering flurry to 283K contracts. While buyers haven't yet stepped in, this does suggest that the bears are pricing in a bottom.

Image

10:30 AM · Mar 29, 2020·Twitter Web App

12 Retweets31 Likes

By metmike - April 6, 2020, 12:35 p.m.
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By metmike - April 6, 2020, 3:04 p.m.
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U.S. natgas futures rise over 4% for second day on cooler forecasts


https://www.oilandgas360.com/u-s-natgas-futures-rise-over-4-for-second-day-on-cooler-forecasts/


Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was already trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather enabled utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely.

Gas futures, however, are trading much higher for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 on expectations demand will rise in coming months after governments loosen travel and work restrictions once the spread of coronavirus slows. Calendar 2021 has traded at a premium over 2022 for 20 days and over 2025 for 10 days.

By metmike - April 6, 2020, 7:53 p.m.
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NGI after the close on Monday:

                  

Natural Gas Futures, Cash Surge Amid Production Declines, Colder-Than-Normal April Outlook

     5:25 PM    

Natural gas futures picked up where they left off last week, extending gains as weather forecasts trended even colder and Lower 48 production declined. The May Nymex gas contract hit a $1.740 intraday high on Monday before settling a few ticks below that level at $1.731, up 11.0 cents from Friday’s close. June rose 10.6 cents to settle at $1.844


metmike: The stock market soaring higher sure didn't hurt anything.

By metmike - April 7, 2020, 12:25 a.m.
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Coronavirus has peaked! Here's your Monday Weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50109/

By MarkB - April 7, 2020, 1:04 a.m.
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Perhaps the timing of the normal weather in the year, is why the june contract is so low in open interest. But why not May as well? Winter and heating demand is over. Cooling is not yet needed.


In other news. Covid19 has certainly thrown a wrench in a lot of things. People out of work, as industries and small businesses are shut down. Schools are out for the rest of the year. People going  stir crazy, and getting more desparate for work. Worried that they might lose their homes, cars, utilities, etc. Pretty soon, you're going to see a rise in the CuPb poisoning numbers. Very devastating overall.

By metmike - April 7, 2020, 1:30 p.m.
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I agree that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty ahead.

The #1 realm of uncertainty has been when this pandemic spread would peak........by a wide margin thats been the most important.

It HAS peaked in the US(according to me) so we are going to be fed some positive news short term but still have to deal with the longer term problems. 


Maybe the EIA reports will tell us how the demand destruction is worse than expected. Maybe not or maybe production will shut down to offset that. People in the business might know but I don't. 


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49863/


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49867/

By metmike - April 7, 2020, 5:49 p.m.
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The drop in new COVID-19 cases will continue.

Here's your Tuesday Weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50167/

By metmike - April 7, 2020, 6:09 p.m.
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metmike: NGI thought today was Wednesday.............it may seem like it but its still just Tuesday (-:


Natural gas futures skyrocketed Wednesday as supply/demand balances continued to tighten and news reports circulated that deliveries of U.S. natural gas to China have resumed after more than a year. The May Nymex contract settled Tuesday at $1.852, up 12.1 cents day/day and up 30.0 cents from last Thursday

By metmike - April 8, 2020, 3:41 p.m.
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Wonderful Wednesday to You.

Storms this evening. Here's your weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50226/

By metmike - April 9, 2020, 10:54 a.m.
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NGI early:  EIA Data Said Likely to Show ‘Plummeting’ Demand from Covid-19; Natural Gas Called Lower

       8:57 AM

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 3, 2020   |  Released: April 9, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 16, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                   +38 BCF Bearish but the market seemed to expect it.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(04/03/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region04/03/2003/27/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East382  382  0  0   209  82.8  274  39.4  
Midwest475  476  -1  -1   240  97.9  355  33.8  
Mountain92  92  0  0   64  43.8  111  -17.1  
Pacific203  197  6  6   117  73.5  209  -2.9  
South Central872  840  32  32   517  68.7  751  16.1  
   Salt265  256  9  9   163  62.6  225  17.8  
   Nonsalt607  585  22  22   354  71.5  527  15.2  
Total2,024  1,986  38  38   1,148  76.3  1,700  19.1  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,024 Bcf as of Friday, April 3, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 38 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 876 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 324 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,700 Bcf. At 2,024 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and m

By metmike - April 9, 2020, 11:14 a.m.
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 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

   


Latest Release    Apr 09, 2020    Actual38B    Forecast24B     Previous-19B

        

                         

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Apr 09, 2020 10:3038B24B-19B
Apr 02, 2020 10:30-19B-24B-29B
Mar 26, 2020 10:30-29B-25B-9B
Mar 19, 2020 10:30-9B-6B-48B
Mar 12, 2020 10:30-48B-59B-109B
Mar 05, 2020 11:30-109B-108B-143B


By metmike - April 9, 2020, 4:52 p.m.
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By metmike - April 12, 2020, 8:55 p.m.
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Sunday's weather. Cold this week as expected, stays chilly in the Northeast in week 2 but we are talking late April and its hard to imagine this would move the ng market.


CDD's will be passing up HDD's in May, it looks like, from eyeballing the graphs that the climate averages have that happening around May 9th.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50398/

By metmike - April 13, 2020, 5:02 p.m.
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By metmike - April 14, 2020, 11:52 a.m.
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By metmike - April 14, 2020, 8:18 p.m.
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Terrific Tuesday to you! Here's your weather:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50532/


NGI after the close Tuesday:

Natural Gas Futures Slide as Projected Demand Falls; Triple-Digit Storage Builds Possible Within Weeks

     5:01 PM    

An increasingly milder April outlook sapped any early momentum in natural gas futures trading on Tuesday. The May Nymex gas futures contract settled at $1.650, off 7.4 cents day/day and at the low end of its 9-cent trading range. June fell 5.3 cents to $1.826.