KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
3rd Quarter Manpower Quarterly U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. May NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 104.8)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -5.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET. May CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. May Real Earnings
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as investors assessed early results from U.S. President Trump’s unprecedented summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the late-April low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7024.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7234.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7124.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7024.80.
The June S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2734.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2734.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2689.90.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 147-03 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148-18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-07. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 140-05.
June T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.192 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.125. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.192. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.105.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.73 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.78. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.37. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 64.22. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.
July heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 221.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 211.14. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 217.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 217.11. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 228.04. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, last-October's high crossing at 3.043 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.873 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 3.000. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 3.043. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.873. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.847.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.66 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 94.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.07. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.66.
The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 121.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.26 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.08. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.
The September British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3536 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, last-November's low crossing at 1.3194 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3695. First support is May's low crossing at 1.3280. Second support is last November's low crossing at 1.3194.
The September Swiss Franc was steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0189 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0279. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0116. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0099.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 76.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 78.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 78.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 80.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 76.70. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.50.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9265 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9450. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9111. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1283.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1312.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1312.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1321.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1283.70. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40.
July silver was lower overnight as it consolidated some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 17.425 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 16.975. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.555 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.555. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190.
July copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-December's high crossing at 334.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 331.55. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 334.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 319.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.58.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 3.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.91 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.91 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.66 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.62.
July wheat was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4 is the next downside target. If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 5.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.54. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.66 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.86 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 5.34 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline decline crossing at 5.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.74 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 5.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.12 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.88 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2018-rally crossing at 9.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.06 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.06 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9.53 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2018-rally crossing at 9.29 1/2.
July soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 339.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 371.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 364.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 371.60. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 351.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 339.30.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 30.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.23. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 32.05. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 30.27. Second support is May's low crossing at 30.15.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.33 at $79.40.
July hogs posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.63. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.70. Second support is May's low crossing at 74.97.
October cattle closed down $1.20 at 107.00.
October cattle posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 108.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.37. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.33 at $145.95.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 149.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.45. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 11.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cocoa closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.17 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.
July sugar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed lower due to profit taking on Monday but not before posting a new high close for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!