INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - April 3, 2020, 7:59 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, April 3, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -56K; previous +273K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.5%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.52)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.32%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +3.0%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +45K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +228K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 63.4%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



9:45 AM ET. March US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 49.4)



10:00 AM ET. March ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 45.7; previous 57.3)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 57.8)



                       Prices Idx (previous 50.8)



                       Employment Idx (previous 55.6)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 63.1)



11:00 AM ET. March Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 47.1)



Monday, April 6, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. Annual Advance GDP by Industry



10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 108.96)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



  N/A              World Strategic Forum commences



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as investors brace for more bad news on the American job front and coronavirus cases worldwide topped one million. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 7310.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 8208.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 8208.09. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 8583.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 7310.25. Second support is March's low crossing at 6628.75. is the January-2019 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6616.75.



The June S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 2028.01 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 2634.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2634.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2780.02. First support is March's low crossing at 2174.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2028.01. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the March 16th high crossing at 182-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 182-21. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 170-00.  



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.175 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 139.145. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.175. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 134.094.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.14 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.14. Second resistance is the March 9th gap crossing at 41.29. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.27. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.



May heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.47. Second resistance is the March 9th gap crossing at 137.81. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 93.03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.  



May unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 32.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.49. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 104.62. First support is March's low crossing at 46.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40. 



May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.530 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.736 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.736. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at 1.838. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.521. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.500.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.28. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.88. 



The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Second resistance is the March 19th high crossing at 112.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 108.08. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.    



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2700 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2190 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2700. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3212. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2190. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.1438.



The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 1.0138 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0444 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0256. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 71.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If June resumes the decline off December's high, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 71.89. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 72.85. First support is March's low crossing at 68.20. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 0.0973 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0921 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is March 12th high crossing at 0.0973. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0921. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $1707.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $1576.00 would confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $1707.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1576.00. Second support is March's low crossing at $1453.00.



May silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $16.405 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $13.895 would temper the rally off March's low. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $14.980. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $13.895. Second support is March's low crossing at $11.640. 



May copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $227.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $224.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $227.19. First support is March's low crossing at $197.25. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.50 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.50 1/4. Second resistance is the March 20th high crossing at $3.56 1/2. First support is March's low crossing at $3.32. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4.    



May wheat was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4 would confirm that a double top with January's high has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $5.87. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March rally crossing at $5.28 1/4.

   

July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 1/4-cents at $4.71 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.09 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.68. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $4.58 1/2.  



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $5.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.42 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $5.50 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $5.15 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.03.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were lower overnight as they extend this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $8.21 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.84 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.84 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.55 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $8.21.    



May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extended this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $304.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $321.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at $328.90. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 336.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $304.50. Second support is March's low crossing at $295.60.     



May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 21.54 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 27.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 27.38. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 28.97. First support is March's low crossing at 24.68. Second support is monthly support crossing at 21.54.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $3.00 at $49.20. 



April hogs closed limit down on Wednesday as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $47.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $63.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $60.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $63.70. First support is today's low crossing at $49.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at $47.83.   



April cattle closed down $4.50 at $97.32. 



April cattle closed limit down on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at $91.08 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.11. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $112.65. First support is today's low crossing at $97.32. Second support is March's low crossing at $91.08. 

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $4.50-cents at $118.40. 



May Feeder cattle closed limit down on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at $107.47 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $132.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $132.67. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $138.20. First support is today's low crossing at $118.40. Second support is March's low crossing at $107.47.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target. 



May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the October-2018 low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.              



May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.44 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook.        



May cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extend this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 36.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.27 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.   



Comments
By metmike - April 3, 2020, 4:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine


NG prices Wed/Thu hit the lowest April price since 1992!!


1.521 on both those days for the low, could be THE low.

Much colder temps/near record cold coming up late next week is bullish enough to increase HDD's enough

to actually inspire the huge rally today.


The cold air is much drier and the Cornbelt has much less precip than earlier this week. We need warm and dry to get planting started later this month but cold and drier is better than cold/wet/snowy.