Happy April 4th! The COVID-19 news is getting better!!!
Tough to be optimistic in this current environment but
Despite the current pandemic, we still live in the best time of human history. This Coronavirus panic has peaked! The markets have dialed in a lot of really, really bad news already. The shut downs have resulted in the #infected RATE of increase peaking. The new infection numbers should be slowing down to decreasing next week. The number of daily new deaths will be the last to go down in the middle of the month.
You need to read this one:
Profound evidence that things are getting better
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49867/
Tracking the Coronavirus#2-NEW THREAD-SAT#'s
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49863/
SATURDAYS WEATHER is MUCH colder(and drier) than 2 days ago. The colder trend from Friday continues.....bullish for natural gas even though it's very late in the heating season. Drier is better than wet/snow for early corn planting but we need more warmth than what's in the forecast.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Warm early in the week, then turning much cooler.
Highs for days 3-7:
Above average early in the week........then turning cooler. Blues will be increasing for this period on this map the next few days.
After this period(week 2) is even cooler yet.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
MUCH drier than the outlook from last Thursday. So net drying for soils in many places but a very long way to go for them to be ready for planting.
Cold Canadian High Pressure dominates next week with a couple of cold fronts.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
The forecast has turned decidedly drier!
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Not much threat.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting ideally starting in April in the south, Plenty of time to dry out but any Spring Storms with heavy precip will start turning bullish for corn......though it looks drier today.
The 2nd week of April forecast has shifted much colder and drier.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 1: No drought anywhere in the Midwest. 0% drought there.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Sunday: 12z run. Very mild!
Tuesday: Very mild average but a wide spread in individual solutions on the pattern.
Wednesday: Warm and wet........stormy.
Thursday: Nothing exciting.
Sunday: Mild to Warm on this model and European model.
Tuesday: Big differences. Some are warm and wet. Some are chilly but drier.
Thursday: Still huge differences with a battle between the northern stream(-AO/-NAO) and southern stream. European model was MUCH colder overnight.
Saturday: Big spread with regards to how much northern stream and how much southern stream will affect our weather.
Sunday: More southern stream, more active and wetter. A minority still have some northern stream.
Monday: Ridge building in the Southeast.........warm and humid there. Trough Rockies to Plains............chilly there. Increasing precipitation. Could turn pretty wet.
Tuesday: Active southern stream and WET. However, a significant number of solutions have a strong northern stream influence so there is a wide spread in solutions and especially in handling the northern stream. What looks most likely is colder air from Canada penetrating fairly far south in the middle of the country, while the southern stream sends perturbations from the Southwest, aimed at the southcentral US and moisture flows northward ahead of them.
Wednesday: Active southern stream and WET. Trough over much of the country. Warm southeast, chilly Plains/westward. How far southeast can the chilly Canadian air penetrate?
Friday: MUCH colder! And drier. Northern Stream dominates now. In fact, very chilly in the Plains/Midwest to Northeast.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 19, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Sunday: Positive anomaly over Greenland and weak negative anomaly in the Northeast..........chilly Northeast/Great Lakes area.
Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly in the N.Pacific to Alaska for weeks is backing waaay up westward. Weak negative anomaly off the West Coast. Weak positive anomaly in the Midwest. Nothing to write home about. Mild temps.
Wednesday: Modest positive anomalies. Mild to warm.
Sunday: Huge Pattern change? Building positive anomaly NE Canada to Greenland, back to US Rockies/Plains, negative anomaly Southeast Canada to Northeast .........means chilly Northeast US. Warmer and drier Rockies/Plains, with modest positive anomalies. Potential for AO and NAO to go negative for the first time this year.
Tuesday: Potential pattern change on this model. Positive anomaly West/Rockies to Central Canada. modest negative anomalies along the East Coast. Drier pattern for sure. How cool will it get in the East? Warmth greatest/shifting West.
Saturday: Colder before this late week 2 period with the maps below not showing any impressive anomalies.
Monday: Weak anomalies. Modest positive in the Southeast. Warm and humid there. Modest negative Southwest............storm track and precip between these features.
Tuesday: Positive anomaly Southeast with upper level ridge, pumping up warm humid air. Negative anomaly western 1/3 to 1/2 with cooler air. In between, a storm track and loads of moisture. Another stronger positive anomaly in the North Pacific to Alaska. Also negative anomaly in Southeast Canada that would help chilly air to push south of the US border.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly over the Southeast(warm and humid). Negative anomaly Great Lakes to Rockies. Bigger positive anomaly west of Alaska.
Friday: Positive anomaly from N.Pacific/Alaska extending weakly to West Coast couples/connects to Eastern Canada negative anomaly that extends south, weakly to Great Lakes area. Good set up for cold air in Canada to spread into the Plains/Midwest and East.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Saturday: AO goes a bit negative, then a wide spread. NAO shifts solidly negative, indicating MUCH cooler weather in the Mideast/East. PNA increases to a bit positive with a wide spread...........cooler to the East and also drier but warmer West.
Monday: AO back to more positive and unfavorable for cold to move from high to mid latitudes. NAO dips below 0 but turns back up late week 2........warming in the East then.. PNA gets above 0 but drops again late week 2.
Tuesday: A0 drops slightly below 0 then is around 0. NAO drops a bit below 0.........I think that this will cause some chilly Canadian air to push south of the border. PNA is negative, then close to 0.
Wednesday: Close enough to 0 at the end of 2 weeks to not be huge. It's also Spring which makes these indices less significant with time/warmer weather. s
Friday: AO slightly positive..........wide spread in solutions. NAO slightly negative.........wide spread in solutions but favoring cold. PNA a big negative.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |