KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 9, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1095.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1071.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 258.8K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 6.648M)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3.341M)
Continuing Claims (previous 3029000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +1245K)
8:30 AM ET. March PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.8%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 95.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 85.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1986B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -19B)
(Cbf)
12:00 PM ET. March Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, April 10, 2020
8:30 AM ET. March CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. March Real Earnings
N/A U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday
N/A Marianas: Good Friday
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 were lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8436.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7579.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8436.91. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 8583.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 7376.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 6628.75.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 2780.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2511.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2780.02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2924.37. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2448.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 2174.90.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 184-07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 171-16.
June T-notes were higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.193 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 139.145. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.193. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 134.289.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as investors grow hopeful that major oil producers will agree to production cuts, with U.S. supply data when they meet later today.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 30.40 is the next upside target. If May renews this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 29.13. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 30.40. First support is March's low crossing at 19.27. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.
May heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 113.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 113.84. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 121.42. First support is March's low crossing at 93.03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.
May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 76.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If May resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 32.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.00. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 84.25. First support is March's low crossing at 46.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40.
May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off last-Thursday's low, March's high crossing at 2.044 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.705 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.500 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.918. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.044. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.705. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.521.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off the March 27th low crossing at 98.34, March's high crossing at 103.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 100.97. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.88.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June renews the decline off the March 27th high crossing at 111.88, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Second resistance is the March 19th high crossing at 112.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 107.92. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2640 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2141 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2640. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3212. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2141. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.1438.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0402 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June extends last-week's decline, March's low crossing at 1.0138 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0234. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 27th high crossing at 71.89 are needed to confirm an upside side breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the March 31st low crossing at 69.74 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible retest of March's low crossing at 68.20. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 71.89. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 72.85. First support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.74. Second support is March's low crossing at 68.20.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 0.0973 is the next upside target. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, March's low crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is March 12th high crossing at 0.0973. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0919. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1606.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1742.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1654.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1606.20.
May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $16.200 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.074 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $15.930. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.200. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $13.895. Second support is March's low crossing at $11.640.
May copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $243.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 221.17 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $232.21. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $243.17. First support is March's low crossing at $197.25. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of its recent decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at $3.12 is the next downside target. Today's monthly supply-demand report may hold the keys for near-term direction. Pre-report estimates for U.S. corn ending stocks came in around 2.004 billion bushels, which would be moderately above March’s 1.892 billion bushels. Ethanol production fell to just 672,000 barrels per day while stocks rose by 5.3% reaching a record 27.091 million barrels. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 1/2. Second resistance is the March 20th high crossing at $3.56 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.25 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.12.
May wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 would confirm that a double top with January's high has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.87. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.42. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March rally crossing at $5.28 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $4.78.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.09 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $4.58 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at $5.42 1/2 would renew the rally off March's low. If May resumes last-week's decline, March's low crossing at $5.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.42 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $5.50 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.15 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.03.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as they extend this week's trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-week's decline, March's low crossing at $8.21 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Pre-report estimates for this year's ending stocks came in at 430 million bushels, which is slightly above March’s estimate of 425 million bushels. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.80. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.48 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $8.21.
May soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates the sharp decline off March's high. Since the March high, The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at $290.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $310.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $292.20. Second support is February's low crossing at $290.70.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 28.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.36 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 27.48. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 28.97. First support is March's low crossing at 24.68. Second support is monthly support crossing at 21.54.
Thanks tallpine!
USDA report out at 11am.
Weather still looks extremely chilly for the Cornbelt and on the dry side.