kannbwx

Apr 9

Conab raises #Brazil's #corn crop by 1.8 mmt to 101.87 mmt, but #soybeans were cut by more than 2 mmt to 122.06 mmt. Conab has been revising the soybean S&D since January, and although new data has been expected "shortly" all along, nothing yet.

@kannbwx

Apr 9

World stocks for #soybeans come in a bit below trade guesses, but #corn and #wheat come in significantly over.

 For wheat, USA was up 0.82 mmt, #Russia up 1 mmt, #India up 1.9 mmt, #China up 2.1 mmt. World less China was +3.55 mmt. 

For corn, USA was +5.1 mmt.

April 9 USDA numbers neutral

https://www.ocj.com/2020/04/april-9-usda-numbers-neutral/

"Corn exports unchanged, soybean exports cut 50 million bushels, soybean crush increased 20 million bushels, wheat exports were reduced 15 million bushels.

Ahead of the report, many had expected it to be a non-bullish report for grains with traders looking for higher ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat for the 2019-2020 marketing year. Next month USDA will publish their first supply and demand reports for the 2020-2021 marketing year."

https://www.ocj.com/2020/04/april-9-usda-numbers-neutral/

"Corn ending stocks were raised to 2.092 billion bushels, up from last month’s 1.892 billion bushels. The average trade estimate was 2.004 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks were 480 million bushels while at 425 million bushels last month. The average trade estimate was 430 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol was lowered to 5.050 billion bushels, down from last month’s 5.425 billion bushels. Wheat ending stocks were 970 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 940 million bushels, which is the same ending stocks in March.

Brazil soybean production was 124.5 million tons. Last month it was 126 million tons. Argentina soybean production was 52 million tons, last month was 54 million tons."

@kannbwx

·

Apr 9

Production cuts for #soybeans in #Brazil & #Argentina did not lead to a cut in exports. #China imports rise 1 mmt, but that all goes to stocks, not use. 

USA's carryout rises, stocks/use seen at 12%. P.S. these are the MY adjusted numbers for BR/AR, not local MY.

@kannbwx

46m

U.S. ending stocks of #corn, #soybeans, and #wheat all increase over March and come in higher than the trade estimates. 

Avg farm price for corn down to $3.60 (was $3.80), soy to $8.65 (was $8.70), wheat to $4.60 (was $4.55).

#Brazil and #Argentina #corn production unchanged at 101 mmt and 50 mmt. #Soybeans were cut by a total of 3.5 mmt (1.5 from BR, 2 mmt from AR).

38m

World stocks for #soybeans come in a bit below trade guesses, but #corn and #wheat come in significantly over.

 For wheat, USA was up 0.82 mmt, #Russia up 1 mmt, #India up 1.9 mmt, #China up 2.1 mmt. World less China was +3.55 mmt. For corn, USA was +5.1 mmt.

@kannbwx

·

21m

So it is abundantly clear that USA is NOT expected to pick up #China's extra imports of #soybeans. That business went to #Brazil. And the Phase 1 trade deal is still on, last we knew.

Production cuts for #soybeans in #Brazil & #Argentina did not lead to a cut in exports. #China imports rise 1 mmt, but that all goes to stocks, not use. USA's carryout rises, stocks/use seen at 12%. P.S. these are the MY adjusted numbers for BR/AR, not local MY.