Happy April 9th! Keep up the great work America!
1. New COVID-19 cases at home peaked as much as 3+ weeks ago and have been dropping.
2. New cases as reported from positive test results peaked on Saturday-as we noted here on Sunday, when others were still saying it was getting worse. It will continue lower(but not every day)
3. Old cases resulting in deaths are the last to peak. This is happening this week.
We've turned the corner!
Despite the current pandemic, we still live in the best time of human history. This Coronavirus panic has peaked! The shut downs have worked but must continue. The new infection numbers WILL BE decreasing the rest of the month(on many days but not every day). The number of daily new deaths will be the last to go down while daily infections rates are dropping.
You need to read this one:
Profound evidence that COVID-19 is getting better April 1, 2020
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49867/
Tracking the Coronavirus#2-THU-The highs are (still)in!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49863/
Thursday's weather: Hard freeze next Monday will damage some Hard Red Winter wheat in the S.Plains that is jointing.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
VERY Chilly N.Plains/Midwest to Northeast.......moderating heading into the deep South.
Near record cold N.Rockies/Plains.
Near record cold N.Rockies/Plains. Spreading southeast but moderating.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Winter Storm very early next week, Great Lakes/Northeast. Fairly dry many places in the Midwest.
Cold Canadian High Pressure dominates after the Winter Storm tracks into Canada.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Heavy rains Southeast.
Winter Storm Great Lakes/Northeast with some falling as snow very early next week.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Soils in the Central Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting. Places like Central IL have done alot of work.
Plenty of time to dry out elsewhere.
The pattern continues to look chilly but dry.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 8: No drought anywhere in the Midwest. 0% drought there.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Tuesday: Active southern stream and WET. However, a significant number of solutions have a strong northern stream influence so there is a wide spread in solutions and especially in handling the northern stream. What looks most likely is colder air from Canada penetrating fairly far south in the middle of the country, while the southern stream sends perturbations from the Southwest, aimed at the southcentral US and moisture flows northward ahead of them.
Wednesday: Active southern stream and WET. Trough over much of the country. Warm southeast, chilly Plains/westward. How far southeast can the chilly Canadian air penetrate?
Friday: MUCH colder! And drier. Northern Stream dominates now. In fact, very chilly in the Plains/Midwest to Northeast.
Saturday: Cold air coming in via the northern stream dominated the northern half while the southern stream looks active with lots of moisture for the southern half. In the center, it could be cold and wet.
Monday: Big battle between northern stream and southern stream. Upper ridge Northwest Canada and downstream trough in Central Canada to the Midwest is excellent for cold air delivery from the northern stream. Trough in the Southwest and points east part of the southern stream........moist flow.
Tuesday: The average looks zonal in the US because it takes extremes from 2 ends and divides them by the number of solutions. Pronouced northern stream with cold from Canada. In the US, wide spread in solutions ranging from a dry/cold northern stream to lots of moisture from the southern stream and potentially stormy.
Thursday: After 10+ days of strong northern stream with chilly dry air, the late week 2 maps show the southern stream taking over and northern stream retreating. Turning warmer and possibly wet for the last week in April..........for this model solution.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 24, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Tuesday: Positive anomaly Southeast with upper level ridge, pumping up warm humid air. Negative anomaly western 1/3 to 1/2 with cooler air. In between, a storm track and loads of moisture. Another stronger positive anomaly in the North Pacific to Alaska. Also negative anomaly in Southeast Canada that would help chilly air to push south of the US border.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly over the Southeast(warm and humid). Negative anomaly Great Lakes to Rockies. Bigger positive anomaly west of Alaska.
Friday: Positive anomaly from N.Pacific/Alaska extending weakly to West Coast couples/connects to Eastern Canada negative anomaly that extends south, weakly to Great Lakes area. Good set up for cold air in Canada to spread into the Plains/Midwest and East.
Sunday: Decent positive anomaly N.Pacific/Alaska coupling with impressive negative anomaly in Central Canada that extends to the Northeast US. Favorable for strong, late season cold to dump into the Midwest to Northeast.
Monday: Positive anomaly Alaska fizzles out. Still a negative anomaly in Central Canada. New modest positive anomaly in the Southeast.
Tuesday: Positive anomalies off the West Coast and N.Atlantic. Main anomaly is over the Hudson Bay extending south to the Midwest..............very chilly in the Plains/MIdwest to Northeast.
Thursday. Slight positive anomaly Pac NW Coast area, negative anomaly Central Canada extending south into the Midwest.........source of more northern stream cold/dry on this model. Not agreed on by all models/solutions. Some are warmer and wetter.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Saturday: AO goes a bit negative, then a wide spread. NAO shifts solidly negative, indicating MUCH cooler weather in the Mideast/East. PNA increases to a bit positive with a wide spread...........cooler to the East and also drier but warmer West.
Monday: AO back to more positive and unfavorable for cold to move from high to mid latitudes. NAO dips below 0 but turns back up late week 2........warming in the East then.. PNA gets above 0 but drops again late week 2.
Tuesday: A0 drops slightly below 0 then is around 0. NAO drops a bit below 0.........I think that this will cause some chilly Canadian air to push south of the border. PNA is negative, then close to 0.
Wednesday: Close enough to 0 at the end of 2 weeks to not be huge. It's also Spring which makes these indices less significant with time/warmer weather. s
Friday: AO slightly positive..........wide spread in solutions. NAO slightly negative.........wide spread in solutions but favoring cold. PNA a big negative.
Sunday: AO a tad positive. NAO goes from solidly negative(cold) rising close to 0. PNA a tad negative. The -NAO up until late is part of the pattern that will be excellent for delivering cold from Canada into the US.
Monday: AO still a bit positive. NAO goes from negative to a slightly positive. PNA a tad negative. The actual weather pattern is great for cold in the northern tier, the -NAO in week 1 is great for this but it increases in week 2, so we MIGHT warm up late week 2.
Thursday: AO is a bit positive surprisingly during the upcoming near record cold.........unusual. Solidly negative NAO is behind it entirely. NAO gets close to 0 late week 2........moderating in temps. PNA hovers just below 0.....nothing there.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
80 degrees here yesterday....snow flurries this afternoon