Nearly all respondents — 93% — are expecting a global recession this year and are looking for steep cuts to earnings expectations. There are differing opinions as how the recovery will take shape, but 52% see it as being “U” shaped, with a longer delay before the upturn. Some 22% see a “W” recovery with multiple peaks and valleys, while just 17% anticipate a “V” shape where the recovery is about as a sharp as the decline.
The survey reflects both deeper worries about the near-term trend as well as hopes for a strong recovery on the other side.
In its latest analysis, Goldman Sachs said it anticipates global gross domestic product to fall 35% in the second quarter from the first three months of the year. There is expected to be a sharp rebound in the second half that while still below the pace of 2019 will be well above the second-quarter plunge.