Ethanol/Corn April 15, 2020
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Started by metmike - April 15, 2020, 12:57 p.m.

metmike: Obviously this is killing the price of corn. Demand destruction of unleaded gas from the shut downs and people not driving, means less blending of ethanol into the gas that isn't being used )-: 

Hopefully something will change quickly! This is pretty bad.


@kannbwx

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U.S. #ethanol production hit another record low last week at 570,000 BPD, off 15% from the previous week's all-time low. 

Stocks climbed 1.4% from last week's high to a new record 27.47 mln barrels.

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By metmike - April 15, 2020, 1:01 p.m.
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What Happens When an Ethanol Plant Shuts Down?

October 2, 2019  by in News Releases


https://ethanolrfa.org/2019/10/what-happens-when-an-ethanol-plant-shuts-down/


The idling of an ethanol plant—even if temporary—sends damaging shockwaves throughout the entire community in which the facility operates, including the immediate loss of a local market for corn and a sudden drop in local corn prices. According to a new case study conducted by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), the idling of an ethanol plant can cause local corn prices to fall by as much as 15-25 cents per bushel, resulting in significant financial losses for area farmers.

By metmike - April 15, 2020, 1:08 p.m.
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Distillers’ grains disappear as ethanol plants slow, halt production

                                     

    Cattle producers forced to find replacement for valuable feed source.  


https://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/distillers-grains-disappear-as-ethanol-plants-slow-halt-production

  

    

Making a living raising cattle isn’t as simple as just buying a herd and turning it out on pasture. Cattle require a specific diet to maintain proper nutrition and weight gain.


Currently the No. 2 producer of ethanol in the U.S., Nebraska has grown from one ethanol plant in 1985 to 25 today. Combined, they have the capacity to produce about 2.3 billion gallons of ethanol. Spread across the state, these plants use more than 700 million bushels of corn each year and produce more than 6 million tons of distillers’ grains.

“We estimate feeding wet or modified distillers’ makes producers between $30 and $50 more per finished animal,” Erickson says. “This is due to better performance and cheaper cost of gain even when priced the same as corn on a dry basis.”

 

But as ethanol plants shut down or reduce output in the state because of economics and storage, Auten is forced to consider alternatives for his Angus herd that he estimates could push his feed costs up 25% or more.

“Once I’m not able to get wet, or even modified wet, distillers’ grains, I’m going to have to buy high-quality hay to replace the protein needs of my cattle, which comes at a premium price,” says the Ayr, Nebraska, producer.

So far this year, seven plants have idled production and three have slowed output across Nebraska, according to the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). 

“A 2015 University of Nebraska study showed that the ethanol industry in Nebraska is a $5-billion-per-year industry, so the financial impact on our state is huge as these plants idle and cut production,” says Roger Berry, administrator, Nebraska Ethanol Board.

 

Across the U.S., there are 202 ethanol plants that have 17.1 billion gallons of total capacity, according to RFA. In a typical year, eight to 10 of those may go offline. 

 

Since March 1, 2020, 69 plants, with an annual production capacity of nearly 6 billion gallons, have been fully idled. Another 64 facilities have reduced output anywhere from 10% to 50%, which takes another 1.7 billion gallons out of the supply.

“I’ve been involved in the ethanol industry for about 15 years, and I've never seen anything close to this,” says Geoff Cooper, CEO of RFA. “It's really a devastating time for the industry.”

In a normal year – when every plant is running at normal rates – these facilities make about 44 million tons of distillers’ grains annually. With nearly 66% of production either idled or reduced, that adds up to a significant amount of feed lost.

By metmike - April 15, 2020, 7:06 p.m.
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This map shows how ethanol production has ramped up over the last 14 years. Taking much of that away, has resulted in corn prices dropping to 14 year lows today.

https://blogs.sas.com/content/graphicallyspeaking/2019/03/14/us-ethanol-fuel-production-a-beautiful-graph/


By metmike - April 15, 2020, 7:20 p.m.
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Fortunately, this will be temporary and hopefully, insane green new fairy tale deals that can't ever work and would not do a thing to affect our current climate optimum will never gain traction. 

The graph below shows how ethanol production/demand for corn lifted corn prices above $3 for the past 14 years. 

http://www.g-feed.com/2014/08/



By metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:47 a.m.
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@kannbwx

April 15: CBOT #corn futures end at $3.19-1/4 per bushel, the third-lowest close for the most-active contract since Sept. 21, 2009 (top 2 were Aug. 30 & 31, 2016). Futures have not touched the 20-day average since March 11 - right before the U.S. shut down due to coronavirus.

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By metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:55 a.m.
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Corn planting weather............ wet for May in the southern 1/2 to  2/3rds of the Corbelt.  Wettest in the Plains.

Just updated NWS outlook for the month of May:



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By metmike - April 30, 2020, 8:01 p.m.
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That 30 day outlook for May looks like it will NOT verify.

The first 2 weeks will be much drier than that!


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By metmike - April 30, 2020, 8:02 p.m.
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U.S. #ethanol production fell to another record low in the week ended April 24 of 537,000 BPD, down 5% on the week. BUT stocks came off record highs, falling more than 1 mln bbls to 26.34 mln. That is the largest weekly stocks cut since early October.

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