KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 20, 2020
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.16)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.21)
N/A Patriot's Day in Massachusetts and Maine
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W%
Chain Store Sales, M/M%
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.77M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +6.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 270100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +8.0%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off March's low. Today's rally was underpinned by optimism over Gilead coronavirus treatment and U.S. beginning to reopen the economy in the near-future. The high-range close that sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,552.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22,116.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,552.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 25,199.76. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23,186.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22,116.37.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking in late-afternoon trading on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7912.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8318.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7912.75.
The June S&P 500 gapped up and closed above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2851.56 on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2924.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2601.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2924.37. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3085.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2734.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2601.55.
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June T-bonds closed down 1-08/32's at 180-05.
June T-bonds closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 191-22. First resistance is the April 3rd high crossing at 182-31. If June renews the decline off the April 3rd high crossing at 182-31 the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April-3rd high crossing at 182-31. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-09. Second support is March's low crossing at 167-05.
June T-notes closed down 100-pts. at 138.295.
June T-notes closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 139.145. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 135.214.
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June crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends a five-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.12 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $33.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $33.15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $37.71.First support is March's low crossing at $21.64. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.12.
June heating oil closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $84.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $116.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $116.02. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $122.16. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $93.58. Second support is weekly support crossing at $84.87.
June unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 51.89. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 88.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 88.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 107.64. First support is March's low crossing at 51.89. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40.
June Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 2.108 is the next upside target. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, April's low crossing at 1.649 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2.007. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.108. First support is April's low crossing at 1.649. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.521.
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The June Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off the April 6th high, the March 27th low crossing at 98.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is the March 27thlow crossing at 98.34. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14.
The June Euro closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 27th high, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 112.78. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 107.92. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.
The June British Pound closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2283 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline decline crossing at 1.2758 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3042. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2283. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.1438.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 30th high, April's low crossing at 1.0234 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0234. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0138.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.20. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. First support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.73. Second support is March's low crossing at 68.20.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below April's low crossing at 0.0916 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, long-term resistance crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. First resistance is long-term resistance crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0992. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
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June gold closed lower as optimism over potential coronavirus treatment, reopening of economy dulls its haven appeal on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1665.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off March's low, the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1788.80. Second resistance is the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1665.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1628.40.
July silver closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.863 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 17.237 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 16.252. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline decline crossing at 17.237 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.863. Second support is the April 1st low crossing at 13.935.
July copper closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 241.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 223.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 237.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 241.19. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 223.63. Second support is March's low crossing at 197.95.
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July Corn closed up $0.03-cents at 3.29 1/4.
July corn closed higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $3.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.33 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.40 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $3.25. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.12.
July wheat closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $5.35 1/4.
July wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.71 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $5.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.08 1/2-cents at $4.85 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.09 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $4.68 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.19 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. If July closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.48 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.51 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $5.18 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2.
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July soybeans closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $8.41 1/2.
July soybeans closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $8.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.83 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.83 1/4. Second resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $8.98. First support is today's low crossing at $8.41 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $8.29.
July soybean meal closed down $3.60 at $292.50.
July soybean meal posted a new low close for the year on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $305.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $296.90. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $305.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $291.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
July soybean oil closed down 5-pts. At 26.63.
July soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 26.18 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.43. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.31. First support is April's low crossing at 26.18. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.
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June hogs closed up $0.55 at $43.73.
June hogs closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $40.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $47.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $41.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at $40.70.
June cattle closed down $0.18 at $86.30.
June cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $69.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.72. First support is April's low crossing at $76.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at $69.29.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.80-cents at $119.28.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $120.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $95.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $120.55. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.79. First support is last Monday's low crossing at $103.62. Second support is monthly support crossing at $95.50.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends a two-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 13.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.29 would renew the decline off March's high.
May cocoa gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday leaving a two-day island bottom. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.07 tempers the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above April's high crossing at 24.28 would open the door for additional gains near-term If May renews the decline off February's high, the October-2018 low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.57 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.29 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.90 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather is not a big factor for any markets right now.