INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 23, 2020, 8:03 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, April 23, 2020    



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 4300K; previous 5245K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1370K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 11976000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +4530K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 969.5K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 304.7K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 597.7K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (expected 35.0; previous 49.2)



9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (expected 32.0; previous 39.1)



10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales



                       New Home Sales (expected 647K; previous 765K)



                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -15.4%; previous -4.4%)



                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.0)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (expected 2135B; previous 2097B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (expected +38B; previous +73B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. April Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing



                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous -18)



                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous -36)



                       Mfg Composite Idx (expected -29; previous -17)



                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous -19)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, April 24, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. March Advance Report on Durable Goods



                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -12.0%; previous +1.2%)



                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.6%)



                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.7%)

                       

10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 67.0; previous 89.1)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 79.7)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.2%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 103.7)



Monday, April 27, 2020  



10:30 AM ET. April Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous -70.0)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous -35.3)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as investors await report that could show total unemployed in U.S. tops 25 million.The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8191.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8308.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8191.02.

 

The June S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2688.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2921.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2921.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2688.91. Second support is the April 1st low crossing at 2448.00. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a double top with the early April high might be forming. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 184-07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 177-14 would confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the reaction low crossing at 177-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-28.  



June T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.207 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.207. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 136.108.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, downside targets are unknown. First resistance is the April 9th high crossing at 33.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6.50. Second support is unknown.



June heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, the October-2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 49.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.61. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 70.84. Second support is the October-2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 49.30.   



June unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's upside reversal. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 82.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends Tuesday's decline, March's low crossing at 51.89. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.72. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 88.30. First support is March's low crossing at 51.89. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40. 



June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.154 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.862 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2.108. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.154. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.705. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.649.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-week's low, the April 6th high crossing at 101.03 is the next upside target.If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.88. 



The June Euro was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 27th high crossing at 111.88, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.98 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 112.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 107.68. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.    



The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Tuesday's decline, the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off March's low the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3042. First support is the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.1438.



The June Swiss Franc was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last-week's decline, April's low crossing at 1.0234 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0234. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the April-13th high crossing at 72.24. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the March 31st low crossing at 69.73 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.39 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.39. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. First support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.74. Second support is March's low crossing at March's low crossing at 68.20.  



The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020 decline crossing at 0.0943 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 1st high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.0943. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $1666.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1788.80. Second resistance is the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1666.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1640.20.



July silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $14.715 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $16.252. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $14.715. Second support is April's low crossing at $13.935. 



July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2643 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3896. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2644. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.9795. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.35 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at $3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.35 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.57 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.    



July wheat was higher overnight signaling a possible end to a two-day correction off Monday's high The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.48 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.71 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4. Second support is 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.13 1/2.

   

July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.06 1/4-cents at $4.97 3/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $5.14. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $4.67 3/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.51 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.15 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.61 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off the March 25th high, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.77 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $8.18 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.    



July soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $304.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $298.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $286.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.     



July soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.91 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 25.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 27.82. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.31. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 25.18. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.    

Comments
By metmike - April 23, 2020, 12:04 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Trying to figure out how much wetter we might get........or not in early May.