The Dow, now in the upper half of the 24,000s, is at the highest point since the pandemic low of March. This is despite a worst than "expected" 1st qtr GDP report. The reasons appear to be due to some promising COVID-19 developments:
1. Oxford University: potential for a vaccine by THIS September!
2. "Gilead says its coronavirus treatment remdesivir just succeeded in a crucial study, raising hopes for a first COVID-19 drug"
WOW! This is great Larry!
IF, both of these turned out to be true, it would mean that. not only is the worst over, we would be in a position to start obliterating the virus during our next battle with it next Winter...if somehow the vaccine was in widespread distribution.
This is like a dream come true.
This is the best news we've received yet.
Having a drug that helps between now and then would help us hobble along better.
Key points from the article about this drug:
Speaking of worse than expected GDP. The dates could not be copied below but the bar graph tells the story.
Those big yellows are obviously from the great recession of late 2008/early 2009, then its been mostly solid gains with only isolated quarters of no gains. ......until now.
Next quarter(2nd quarter April-June) will definately will be worse.........then???
I could not get the 1st link to load on my lap top, but from what you folks say, this is good news. Just what we want to hear
However, the stk market might be following the lead from Jerome Powell in todays presser. more so than any word about vaccines and treatments, which if true, would still require time, for the economy to recover from the pandemic
He basically did not say anything new except the Fed would use all of it's tools to ensure a smoothly functioning economy until the economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic
Since the Fed has been buying every corporate bond and other Corp security, some of it from zombie corp. the only thing left is to directly buy stks, if the market should crash. Since Powell said the Fed wants a smooth and orderly market, this can only mean the Fed will back stop the stk market, should it crash. So where is the risk???
At least that is why many investors are buying stk, thinking the Fed will back stop any market crash
Given that any person with a minimum of knowledge about the economy going forward, knows most if not everybody expects the economy to contract drastically in the next two quarters, at least. Under ordinary circumstances, it makes no sense to buy when profits are expected to crash, and stk values go down
But no: This is different and the Fed words about a smooth and orderly economy, are a huge reason to buy. As the economy recovers from the pandemic, the Fed will not allow a market crash.
Edit: Powell may not have used the exact words "smooth and orderly" but that was the gist of his message at the presser and the best I could describe his comments, given my faulty memory
I am sure if you look you can find his presser and any comments for yourself, as Powell's presser will be every where in the financial news media
The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the committee said in its post-meeting statement. “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”
The commitment was stronger than most market participants expected and represents a pledge to hold rates near zero and keep them there until full employment returns and inflation gets back to around the Fed’s long-stated 2% goal.
There was no expression in the statement that the Fed feels confident about what its moves will lead to in terms of economic growth. Instead, the committee said it will continue to monitor conditions “including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”