Soil moisture
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Started by metmike - May 3, 2020, 7:57 p.m.

We've been drying out the last 2 months in some places(especially the Plains and parts of the Midwest-IA-IN-OH).

The farther west you go, the drier it gets.


Comments
By metmike - May 3, 2020, 8:03 p.m.
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Still plenty of moisture left in the soils though!


Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Soils in many parts of the Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    


            

  

                            

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/                                                              

             

                                

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        

                                                                             

                                        

Drought Monitor for conus

                            


       

By metmike - May 3, 2020, 8:08 p.m.
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Some of the growing dry spots in the Plains are getting hit with rains right now..

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


Around average many places.


Day 1 below:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

By metmike - May 3, 2020, 8:09 p.m.
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Looks like more drying after that but possibly turning wetter towards the end of week 2..........low confidence.

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

By metmike - May 3, 2020, 8:12 p.m.
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2 week rain totals from the just updated 18z GFS ensemble

Weather Model

By wglassfo - May 3, 2020, 9:57 p.m.
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Another thing some folks have commented about is the wind

Most of us that do limited tillage are having wind dry the soil out even with some cover on top

One farmer remarked the wind blew most of his corn stalks into the ditch or piled them up in the field

Yesterday had a brisk wind, today was relatively  less wind

Wind can dry soil out really fast

Some times you find no moisture to plant into

We are going very shallow with spring tillage this yr.

Edit:

Nobody around here is satisfied with their system, as every combination has been tried and found to be left wanting. We are going to spend 20,000.00 for additional add on trash wippers to our planter and try another system always looking and probably still not satisfied

In southern states the wheat that was g/E is suffering from heat and wind [Texas] mostly dry wind

Other places have emerged soybeans that worry about the coming cold temps

Our corn will still be below the surface this week end, or under plastic

Too much spring water last yr to everything but water this yr

Some will have 1000 acres of beans emerged by this week end. Personally, when we had our late frost many yrs ago, anybody with newly emerged soybeans escaped damage, 

So: We will find out 1st of next week, I suppose or later if dry/wind persists

By metmike - May 3, 2020, 11:48 p.m.
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Wayne, I'm very concerned about the very cold temps coming up in SW Ontario, staring this Friday morning and lasting for almost a week.  There will be several mornings with the temp dropping to and even just below freezing. 


Low temperatures days 3-7.


How far south will the freezing temperatures push next weekend?


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif