Welcome to May...........3rd!
1 week cold snap with near record cold on the way for some places!
Back by popular demand:
Tracking COVID-19 #3 SUN-5-3-20 We're back!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50858/
This study confirms what we have been telling you for the last month+
Game changer?-Summer weather is bad for COVID-19!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/
NEW: Scroll down for Low temps days 3-7, during the long lasting, upcoming near record/record cold wave. The forecast is colder than late last week and bullish for natural gas(for the moment), even though big number HDD's in May are usually hard to generate.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
VERY Chilly, especially in the Midwest/Northeast!!
HOT (for bear) from Southwest!
Low temperatures days 3-7.
How far south will the freezing temperatures push, starting late this week?
Likely enough to do at least some minor damage to the SRW(wheat) in the Eastern Cornbelt, over half of which is jointed and can be hurt at temps below 28 for several hours.
My forecast is a bit colder than the NWS forecasts below. There will be numerous daily low temperature records set during this nearly 1 week long cold snap.
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Warm/HOT reds West/Southwest.
Chilly eastern half, especially Midwest to Northeast.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Reinforcing, parade of cold fronts with Arctic High pressure behind them.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Around average many places. Mostly dry in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Current Dew Points
Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to survive longer.
Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.
It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out April 23rd.......we do know this now with COVID-19.
Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Soils in many parts of the Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Last Monday: The average looks like it would be wet.................but most of the individual solutions are dry.
Tuesday: The average actually looks drier today........but many of the individual solutions look pretty wet. Several solutions have a chilly northern stream connection in the Midwest/Northeast.
Thursday: Warm West to Plains with potentially active southern stream, upper trough west, upper ridge Southern Plains. Northern stream in the Great Lakes to Northeast.......so cool there. Lots of uncertainty.
Saturday: Mainly zonal look to the average but active and probably on the wet side.
Sunday: Potential to turn wetter with the southern stream but still a northern stream source of energy for the Midwest/Northeast.
Monday: Very interesting because the ensemble average is zonal since it averages a bunch of individual extremes in the opposite direction that offset each other but the vast majority of solutions are NOT zonal. Huge differences.
Thursday: Zonal average with alot of not so zonal in idividual contributions that average out.
PM update......dry pattern!
Saturday: Dry pattern, finally warming up in the East?
Sunday: Turning wetter late week 2?? These maps are 2 weeks out.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 18, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last: Sunday: Positive anomaly north of Alaska may have a connection with the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada with chilly air in the Great Lakes/Northeast. Could be a significant southern stream though, depends on how much ridging we get in the S.Plains as far as how wet and where.
Monday: Slight positive anomaly across much of the US, especially NorthWest.
Thursday: Very warm West, chilly NorthEast, looking La Nina-ish. PM UPDATE: Ridge shifting to the center of the country. DRY PATTERN!!!
Saturday: Warm and dry in the West to the center of the country.
Sunday: Added the 1 week map first to show the powerful positive anomaly/upper level ridge, centered in Northwest North America with a textbook coupling downstream to the impressive negative anomaly(upper level low) in the Northeast US to maximize a very strong north to south component in air masses from high latitudes, dropping thru Canada and penetrating deeply south into the US.
At the end of 2 weeks, the maps below show this to weaken substantially.
E
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Monday: Still near 0 for all indices.
Thursday: Still around ZERO fall these indices.
Saturday: Finally a big/significant change. AO drops to --AO in a week, first time down there all year...........brings cold air from high latitudes and flushes it southward. -NAO helps push it south in the Midwest/East. PNA around 0.
Sunday: AO is dropping into negative territory right now. Towards the end of 2 weeks, its back near 0.. NAO is negative and also increases later in the period. The negative values coming up are from the very chilly pattern/near record cold as Arctic air is flushed south from high latitudes to mid latitudes this week and thru at least the early parts of next week.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Summer Forecast...June/July/August
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