KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 8, 2020
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -22000K; previous -701K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 16.1%; previous 4.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.62)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.39%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.2)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +12K)
Private Payroll (previous -713K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. March Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous -0.7%)
Monday, May 11, 2020
10:00 AM ET. April Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 60.39)
ETI, Y/Y%
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The Dow closed higher on Thursday despite more job losses as investors anticipate economies reopening. The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 25,199.76 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 23,361.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 24,764.77. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 25,199.76. First support is Monday's low crossing at 23,361.16. Second support is April's low crossing at 20,735.02.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday and has recovered all the losses suffered since the coronavirus pandemic crushed the 11-year old bull market in March. The gains came despite a U.S. weekly jobless claims report showing another 3 million Americans lost their jobs, but investors were relieved that the pace of job losses is slowing as some states begin to reopen their economies. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 8556.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9144.75. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8556.25. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 7948.00.
The June S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3085.85 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 2775.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2957.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3085.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2775.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2717.28.
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June T-bonds closed up 2-12/32's at 181-03.
June T-bonds closed sharply higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, the April 22nd high crossing at 183-02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at 183-02. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-13. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at 177-14.
June T-notes closed up 230-points at 139.085.
June T-notes closed higher on Thursday while extending the April-May trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.260 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.260. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.
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June crude oil closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $33.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $19.17. Second support is the April 28th low crossing at $10.07. Third support is April's low crossing at $6.50.
June heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.68 is the next upside target. If June renews this year's decline, the October 2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $49.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $91.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.68. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $67.24. Second support isthe October 2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $49.30.
June unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 107.64. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.83 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 96.48. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 107.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.83. Second support is March's low crossing at 51.89.
June Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.880 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at 2.273 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at 2.154. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at 2.273. First support is the April 14th low crossing at 1.705. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.649.
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The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Friday's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the April 24th high crossing at 100.98 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off the April 24th high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 98.77. Second support is the March 27thlow crossing at 98.34. Third support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14.
The June Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the March 27th high, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 110.29. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. First support is April's low crossing at 107.39. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.
The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the April-14th high crossing at 1.2653, the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3042. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 1.2252. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0312 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 1.0216 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0403 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance April's high crossing at 1.0443. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0216. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0138.
The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73 is the next upside target. If June extends this week's decline, the April 21st low crossing at 70.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 72.21. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 70.12. Second support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.73. Third support is March's low crossing at 68.20.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 0.0951 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is long-term resistance crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 0.0951. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Third support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
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June gold closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's rally, April's high crossing at $1788.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at $1788.80. Second resistance is the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10. First support is the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1659.10.
July silver closed higher on Thursday while extending the April-May trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 17.237 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 21st low crossing at 14.715 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 16.252. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline decline crossing at 17.237 is the next upside target. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 14.715. Second support is the April 1st low crossing at 13.935.
July copper closed higher on Thursday. The higher-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 243.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 21st low crossing at 221.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 239.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 243.80. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 221.70. Second support is March's low crossing at 197.95.
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July Corn closed up $0.04-cents at 3.18 1/4.
July corn closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.22 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.22 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $3.33. First support is April's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.
July wheat closed up $0.03 1/2-cents at $5.21.
July wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's low, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.04 1/4. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.71 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.05 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.04 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.01 1/4-cents at $4.78 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.88 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.14. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76. Second support is April's low crossing at $4.67 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.03 1/4-cents at $5.11.
July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.27 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.02. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
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July soybeans closed up $0.11 1/4-cents at $8.43 3/4.
July soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 3/4. First support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.
July soybean meal closed unchanged at $288.10.
July soybean meal closed unchanged on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $302.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $285.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
July soybean oil closed up 41-pts. At 26.25.
July soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.01 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 25.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.01. First support is April's low crossing at 25.09. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.
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June hogs closed down $1.68 at $63.90.
June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $68.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $68.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $74.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $59.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.12.
June cattle closed up $4.50 at $93.98.
June cattle gapped above the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.00 and closed limit up on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $98.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $98.26. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.50. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at $80.27. Third support is April's low crossing at $76.60.
August Feeder cattle closed up $5.40-cents at $138.15.
August Feeder cattle gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $125.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $139.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $125.30. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at $121.35. Third support is April's low crossing at $110.03.
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July coffee closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.46 would signal that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 10.31 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.39 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 24.25 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-May.
July sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 8.36 is the next downside target. If July resumes last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.06 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 57.98 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the April 21st low crossing at 52.01 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Freeze coming up Saturday morning will hurt some of the SRW crop but probably just minor damage.
Turning much wetter in week 2!