Do you know anybody affected by corona
36 responses | 0 likes
Started by wglassfo - May 8, 2020, 10:03 a.m.

We have had out two sons both sick this past week

Our oldest son was tested for ccorona as the symptoms looked sufficient to be tested. He could not go to work for a week. Headache was the biggest problem with other sysmptoms. Luckily he did not test postive

But his biggest customer told him they did not want any more product as the machineery they were building was not sselling in the market place. This means more lay offs and it is expected more shut downs and lost jobs will continue for the next 5-6 months. I would expect this one shut down would affect at least 1000 jobs or more as there are a number of parts suppliers that depend on this machinery selling in the market place. It will be sort of like a domino effect, as My son was told when informed no more parts would be accepted, with no time line as to when production would resume, but expect a minimum of 5-6 months

Our other son had emergency surgery on his right eye

If not done immediately, he could lose the eye sight in that eye. Luckily the operation was a success, and no he has to recover. A tad tough as we are in the middle of spring planting and he is a critical part of the operation

At the hospital, he noticed the lack of patients. He was told many surgeries were postponed, to make space for for the corona, which was not neccesary. Hospital staff are not needeed in the usual numbers and lay offs have resulted or shorter hrs. with fewer surgeries. Only emergency operations take place in that hospital which is a shame by not using the facilities to heal sick people

So:

We had both our sons down for the week or longer but the corona was not the rason for being sick. A tad worrisome to say the least, plus my wife was sick for at least a wweek, some 3 weeks ago and we did not know if she had the corona or not. Luckily she recovereed at home and no test was taken, so we don't know except she is just fine today.

So:

This is what our immediatte family has been thru, the crop is not all in the ground, but at least our family will recover, in time

What we really noticed is the aaffects of the shut down will be seen in the economy for a long time to come, if our experience has any relatinship to the larger econo

SSorry for the sspelling but my cursor has froze up and I can't correct spelling

Comments
By bear - May 8, 2020, 12:10 p.m.
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someone who actually has it?   No.  

but yes, everyone is effected by the public "over-reaction" to this episode.  

my wife works at a nursing home.  so every day when she goes to work, someone takes her temp as soon as she gets there.  she has to wear a mask the whole time.  she has to wear gloves the whole time.  etc.  

my oldest daughter has lost her job (bar tender), so yes she is effected.  she can't pay her bills.  and the gov of indiana won't let bars resume yet.  she has not received any "stimulus" money.  she cannot collect unemployment.  

i know people who do Not need the stimulus and are getting a check they don't need.  i know people who Do need the help and will not get it.  

that is the wisdom of bureaucrats.  

By WxFollower - May 8, 2020, 12:20 p.m.
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 I don’t at all believe this is an overreaction. Covid-19 is a dangerous disease. There’s a lot of unsubstantiated crap circulating over the internet. Life is precious and most of us have family members that are higher risk. Don’t be selfish and neglect the value of their lives.

By metmike - May 8, 2020, 2:07 p.m.
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Being from Detroit, I know several people that have had it. My best friend in 8th grade, Frank Margetich, died from it last month.

Wayne county, where I grew up and where my  94 year old Dad and a sister still live had more cases at its peak, then 45 entire states did at the time.My nephew, Phil is a respiratory therapist in Wayne county(so I understand exactly the threat to people in places like this). Places like this and NYC get in the headline news which makes it seem 100 times worse.

The numbers are dropping now and places that are using science/data and not emotions to reopen are not experiencing a major increase because of it so far(though CNN and the NYT, earlier this week, lied and said they were and are pathetically using fake news to scare, already petrified people even and pretending to represent science-as if we all don't know that shutting down forever would save the most lives from COVID-while ignoring 10 to 100 times the damage that its causing to everybody's life).

We will never get reopening perfect everywhere but here's the way I look at it. We will either be:

1. Too early, in which case, those places can pull back based on science/data.

2. Too late, in which case.............sorry, too late is too late. You can't go back and give people back a job that is gone forever or the loss of their house because they can't afford mortgage payments. And the unprecedented damage to the entire economy that continues to grow, while the virus continues to go down. If the economic damage that we imposed on ourselves is over 10, possibly up to 100 times the damage from the virus, then why would we continue to do things that make the economic damage worse to try to lessen the damage from the virus?

Because of fear/emotions and oversensationalising instead of using facts and the reality. 

Yes, COVID-19 is very deadly and will kill over 100,000 people by the end of the year. But what we are going to by opening up is NOT where we were before. We are opening up slowly and will never go back to the higher risk things that caused it to spread like wildfire. 

To say "we can't take the chance that it might increase again because its so deadly"  and instead, to choose a 100% guarantee of the economic disaster getting much worse because of fear of taking an outside chance of something bad happening(that can be controlled) is not rational thinking. 

By metmike - May 8, 2020, 2:27 p.m.
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The saddest thing about it is that its become entirely political.

If you are a democrat, you are for saving lives from this horrible disease and its not worth risk ANY lives to reopen the economy too soon. When will it be safe? Well, we don't really know but for sure not yet. 

If you are a republican, you care more about the economy (and people's personal freedom to exercise responsibility) than you do about saving lives. 

And of course, it's all about Trump and we know what his position is, so half the people will be against it just because of that............with the MSM completely making stuff up to scare people and convince them that Trump is wrong and is going to kill tens of thousands more Americans than he already killed.

Hating Trump now equates to a NOT opening things up position based on how the MSM has brainwashed us to think. 

Wanting to believe that its worse than it really is and NOT believing in good news when it comes out. 


Thank you Al Gore for inventing the internet because it allows me to show the evidence .

This NYT propaganda article from Monday for instance. They are misleading to completely wrong with their comments on 8 of 9 states. 


                Deaths suddenly doubling in BS model            

            

                10 responses |                                           

                Started by metmike - May 5, 2020, 2:26 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51673/


By WxFollower - May 8, 2020, 2:45 p.m.
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Following guidelines to mitigate the spread of this disease is not an overreaction.

  Folks need to stop with the conspiracy theory nonsense. This is not a government plot to take more control. It is based on science.

By TimNew - May 8, 2020, 3:34 p.m.
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Following guidelines to mitigate the spread of this disease is not an overreaction.

Certainly not. But there is no perfect way to do anything. Sooner will almost certainly cause more infection. Later will cost us economically, and with disruptions in the food supply chain already showing, take much longer and we may look back on this virus as the good ole days.

But some recent points....    That raise questions for me.

New York just learned that 66% of new patients were sheltering.   

And of course, Sweden never sheltered at all and is doing better than much of Europe by just using some common sense guidelines.  And will likely have a higher percentage of population with antibodies. 


Lots of curiosities out there and I think we still have more questions than answers.


By mikempt - May 8, 2020, 4:15 p.m.
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My Aunt peg died from the Virus,her funeral was on Tues. Its very real,sometimes very deadly

By WxFollower - May 8, 2020, 5:43 p.m.
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 Sorry about your loss, Mike.

 Unfortunately, I think a lot of people don’t realize the seriousness of this disease if they’re fortunate not to have any family or friends affected. I’ve been fortunate to this point but I’ve been taking it very seriously, especially because I have a disabled brother who is at high risk and who lives with me.


 It burns me up when I keep reading all of these sights touting that there’s been an overreaction based on conspiracy theories of the government to take over our lives. I happen to believe in legit scientists who are experts and have lots of experience in the field of epidemiology. I don’t need to listen to every nutcase you tube spouting nonsense to try to incite folks to revolt against what our leaders are telling us.

By TimNew - May 9, 2020, 6:55 a.m.
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So I guess you are saying that scientists using data to suggest we are overreacting are illegitimate?

By metmike - May 9, 2020, 12:22 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

Frank hadn't come to our last couple of reunions and I hadn't connected with him for decades.

Tim,

This is the study you referred to:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

Who is Getting Hospitlized?


This would be considered science, correct?

The problem with following "science" seems to be the biased interpretations and in some cases(as I showed with CNN/NYT) using fake data/propaganda to promote political agenda which has taken over the narrative/thinking, the "science" can be falsely applied to show anything you want it to.

For instance. Everybody knows that the science tells us the longer and more severe the shut downs, the less deaths we will have. One side is abusing that fact and using it with impunity to offset many reasonable plans to reopen. 

Every reopening plan everywhere will always cause more deaths. That's the science. But let's be reasonable here and balance that science with some compelling facts. 

Is the economy science? Apparently not for those focused on this science, including much of the MSM and democrats. How could it be because the unprecedented damage to the economy and peoples lives has so greatly exceeded the damage from the virus that only people giving almost all the weight on their one sided science(which is rooted in speculation of an extremely uncertain future) cannot see it.

Fear and emotions are NOT science. Seems to me that an amplified  fear of the virus coming back has distorted the objectivity of some, in addition to succumbing to the MSM brainwash, using that fear to impose their political agenda.

No conspiracy theory here. The MSM and dems want us shut down longer, the pubs in general(and Trump specifically) want us opening up sooner. Now that its defined like that and everybody has their political sides..........the interpretations to show that their side is right(and Trump is wrong/right) can continue. 

I proved indisputably, that the MSM is doing it and using peoples panic and extreme fear and suffering related to  the cornavirus in a pathetic way for their agenda. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51673/

By WxFollower - May 9, 2020, 3:19 p.m.
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Metmike said:

 "No conspiracy theory here. The MSM and dems want us shut down longer, the pubs in general(and Trump specifically) want us opening up sooner. Now that its defined like that and everybody has their political sides..........the interpretations to show that their side is right(and Trump is wrong/right) can continue. "

-----------------------

 Mike,

  "A straw man (or strawman) is a form of argument and an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent.[1] One who engages in this fallacy is said to be 'attacking a straw man'."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

 

 The paragraph I quoted from you is using Trump for a straw man. Nowhere in this thread did I say anything about Trump. I referred to internet sources claiming govt. recommended measures to mitigate the effects of the virus as being overreactions and/or attempts of the govt. to increase control. Example: Judy Wikovits, who attacked Dr. Fauci

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judy_Mikovits



"Judy Anne Mikovits (c. 1958) is a discredited American ex-research scientist[11][12][13][2][3] who is known for her anti-vaccination activism,[14][13] promotion of conspiracy theories, and scientific misconduct.[6][7][8][9][10] She has made false claims about vaccines, coronavirus, and chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS).["

"In 2020, Mikovits drew attention online for promoting conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic via the conspiracist internet video Plandemic,[11] which made claims that are either false or not based on scientific evidence"


 Fauci and Trump are members of the WH Task Force. The Task Force made recommendations for careful reopenings by stage based on various criteria that first needed to be met. I'm in agreement with these guidelines, which I feel are based on reasonable compromise. So, there's nothing anti-Trump about anything I've said in here. Trump has even criticized GOP Gov Kemp of GA for violating these guidelines and I gave Trump Kudos for that in another thread.

 So, please don't subtlely lump what I'm saying in this thread as saying Trump is wrong. Actually, it is pro-Trump as I'm in favor of his Task Force's guidelines being followed.

 Fauci is all about real science. Wikovits is all about pseudo-science/fake news. That's the kind of thing I'm referring to. I'd hope you and Tim could see the difference.



 

By WxFollower - May 9, 2020, 4:16 p.m.
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 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html


 Regarding this study showing 2/3 of hospitalizations coming from folks who were mainly at home, that shouldn't be a surprise. Many folks are mainly at home right now. Also, the most often hospitalized are older meaning retired in many cases. Retired folks are mainly at home by their nature. Also, note the word "mainly". That means some of these folks could still be away from home at times and exposed then. Finally, even though most people get infected in their own home, what often happens is that a household member contracts the virus out in the community and brings it to the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection. If lockdown guidelines are loosened, you're going to get more opportunity for people getting infected in the community and subsequently likely even more folks getting sick at home.

 I think it is misusing this study's results to conclude from it that more people staying home has not helped and is a leap to say it hasn't.

 Cuomo's reaction of being surprised was stupid as it is giving false ammunition to be used against his own restrictions.

 To know the true answer, you'd in theory have to have the comparison of the actuals of what we've had with lockdown vs what we would had had with no lockdown. There's no way to know what we would have had without though I'm saying I'm very confident it would have been even worse. A lot of this is common sense.

 

By pj - May 9, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
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A few weeks ago a neighbor, 3 houses away, was diagnosed with cv, he lived only another five days. His wife also got it, she spent 2 weeks in the hospital, but has mostly recovered. Before anyone knew what he had, he collapsed a couple of times. Both times his wife called another neighbor, who lived across the street and he came over and helped the guy up into a chair.  Needless to say the good Samaritan neighbor has been sweating out whether he caught it... so far looks like he escaped.

By metmike - May 9, 2020, 8:40 p.m.
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Hi Larry,

I agree completely that for sure if these people were not at home and we didn't have the extreme shut downs that things would have been much worse.

Business as usual with minimal cut backs and it probably would have been a disaster. I emphatically supported the most extreme shut downs for numerous weeks........until we got to the point where we have enough data to know our health care system will not be overwhelmed. This is rock solid science as I mentioned, the more severe the shut downs and the longer the shutdowns last, the lower the infections. We needed the strict shut ins  for the initial X amount of weeks until we had the data and science that we have now. 


Both sides agreed on how things should proceed for quite awhile  but one side has changed the objective. Both sides claim the other side changed but mainly one side changed.........Let me explain. 

From the get go, if you remember,  the main objective was to flatten the curve so that our health care system was not overwhelmed. To avoid having more sick people than we had hospital beds. That we would have enough ventilators and ICU beds available and enough health care workers when the peak hit. 

We did that. Nobody that needed care was denied it because the system could not handle the peaks. There were several big cities that were severely strained but they got the assistance needed to make it past the peaks.

We did this at an unprecedented cost to the economy and peoples lives. Was it worth it? Probably, but only because of what "could have happened, worst case scenario if we didn't shut down"  However, the actual shutdown damage to peoples lives/the economy has been far, far greater than the COVID-19 damage.  

In a perfect world, you might have them more balanced but again, you just couldn't take the risk of a medical apocalypse, so we error ed on the side of caution and we allowed too much economic damage vs virus damage...just  to be safe.

But we are well passed the point of not knowing if this is going to be a medical apocalypse or not(and needing to be extreme, just in case).  The science and data is clearly telling us this. It's telling us that we got thru the worst of it without a collapse in the medical care system. It's clearly telling us that its time to start opening up very slowly again based on our objectives(flatten the curve, avoid an unmanageable crisis)............but one side has moved the goal posts and objectives.

Now, it's become an objective to save as many lives as possible and to not take a chance that the virus could come back. With that newly defined objective, we could stay shut down for .....who knows how long. 

The other side sees the curve flattened, health care system in good shape, the US past the peak, warmer weather coming up, treatments promising.............hey, how about we slowly open things up  in some places(where numbers are low), to see if we can lessen the REAL economic apocalypse? If it gets bad again, we can always tighten things up more.

Complete common sense and consistent with the original objective. No changes. We all assumed that we would need to open up eventually and the science/data is telling us that now is the time to start(not open everything but do it using  the known science that prevents the spread and peoples common sense applying it)

But people are scared shirtless of this virus. Yeah, it's 10 times worse than the flu if you are old and sick and 5 times more contagious. Not 1,000 times worse or even 100 times worse or even 50 times worse.  

It's true that  "The more shutdown you are and the longer you are shut down, the more lives that we will save"

Lets stop driving cars and save 40,000 lives/year while we are at it (-: 

That seems like a ludicrous analogy but what about the flu? We absolutely could have saved many tens of thousands of lives every single year by doing what we are doing with COVID-19.  So we are saving, lets say 3 times as many lives by doing it with COVID-19 than with the seasonal flu. Is it worth 1,000 times  more damage to the economy.......

No life is worth losing for economic benefit, right? Or are we entering the strawman argument by stating that? It's just impossible to assign XX value to lost lives and YYY value to the economy and ZZZZ value to other factors and have an equation with a solution(model) that tells us what the ideal number should be for a new, unpredictable virus so that the least amount of lives lost happens in tandem with an acceptable amount of damage to the economy.

It sure seems obvious to me that we have greatly exceeded the acceptable amount of damage to the economy by a wide margin and decisions from now on, should  favor the economy over the virus to get things to being more rationally balanced. 

Is willing to accept XXXX more deaths to avoid the economic apocolype from  getting even worse? How about, it's worth RISKING the potential of XXXX more deaths, similar to what we do with everything else in life to prevent a for sure apocolype from destroying the quality of tens of millions of real lives. 

Since we have more than doubled the number of people being tested, of course this is keeping the slowly falling numbers from dropping much faster. Another item that is not being properly or honestly dialed into the reality by some folks.

Larry,

I'm puzzled why your are bringing a "strawman" argument into this. I am specifically directly this to what the MSM is doing with fake data and distorting the picture...........clearly for political agenda. 

I provided some crystal clear examples of CNN and the NYT's doing it blatantly in the thread below. If you disagree with me and think that they were NOT doing what I pointed out, then please show the data/facts that support it and show me to be wrong/them right.

You know that I respect you greatly and will adjust my opinion if you show me data/facts which suggests I was/am wrong.


Regardless of whether Trump deserves what he gets or not, the American people deserve the best information and the best plan that incorporates and applies the science in a reasonable way, incorporating the economic and other realms,  so that it maximizes the quality of their/our lives.

You posted Bush's great message last weekend. I agree with it and am saddened that this has turned completely into a political issue and our media is leading the charge.

Republicans want to put most of the blame on China.

Democrats want to put most of the blame on Trump.

Republicans(and Trump) want to slowly open the economy back up.

Democrats think its too early and don't want to risk more lives. 


Same facts/data, science data, same everything but opposite opinions.......lining up exactly with what Fox tells us and what CNN/CNBC/NYT tells us we should be thinking. 

Call me Mr. Strawman but we all know this stereotype matches up well to the reality out there right now.

And if Bill Clinton or George Bush was president, would these opposite opinions based on political party be likely? 

Why not?

Is the political agenda of these news organizations driving the interpretation of the news by these entities?  Do people watch and read them because they don't believe the sources that they use for their news?

It's being driven by the ideas and belief system that they want us to have. They give us THEIR version of the news, spun to convince us to be like minded with them. 


                Deaths suddenly doubling in BS model            

                            19 responses |                

                Started by metmike - May 5, 2020, 2:26 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51673/

By GunterK - May 10, 2020, 12:14 a.m.
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Hi mikempt, nice to see you back… and my condolences to your loss.

No doubt, the virus is nothing like the common cold, or even the annual flu. The debates are about a) are we overreacting, or b) are we not doing enough?

The term “science vs pseudoscience” was mentioned in this lengthy thread.

As laymen, how do we distinguish between a “scientist” and a “pseudoscientist”? There is no way, a layman, such as myself, can even participate in such a discussion.

This term immediately reminded me of metmike and his frequent comments on climate change… he called those predicting a horrible future “pseudoscientists”. As a layman, I have no way of saying, they are right, or metmike is right. But then, thinking about it logically, it Is obvious that climate alarmists base their prediction on computer models, which have been proven to be wrong many times (and which may be politically motivated), while metmike uses factual data of the present or the past.

Therefore, even as a layman, I can make a case for taking metmike’s side and calling the other side “pseudoscience”

Same here in the new world of Covid19.

Some “scientists” have been making predictions for the future of our corona plague (which then caused our lockdowns), which have often been wrong. Then there are other doctors who quote current factual data, and they come to the conclusion that it would have been better to have continued with our lives and let “herd immunity” take hold of this problem. How do I know, who is right or wrong? I really don’t know.

There is a similarity between metmike’s discussions, and the current debates….facts vs predictions

The subject of Fauci vs Mikovits is the same. Dr Fauci discredits Dr. Mikovits. Dr Mikovits discredits Dr. Fauci. How do I know who is right? All I can do is have an open mind, and read the arguments of both sides, and then, if possible, come to a conclusion. (and, if I may add, I have read a lot of not so pleasant reports about the WHO, the NIH and it’s leader)

However, there are some things that will make me question one side immediately….

For example….good data are the basis of all scientific analysis and prediction.

Now take this tidbit of information:

“ MN Sen. and Dr. Jensen said that he received a 7 page document from the MN Department of Health advising him to fill out death certificates with a diagnosis of #COVID-19 whether the person actually died from COVID-19 or not.” (link available on request)

Since this was published, many doctors have stepped forward and quoted similar orders from above.

“Science” stops right here. This is data manipulation…. fraud. This puts our “scientists” immediately into the category of ‘pseudoscience”

The other thing that is quite disturbing….so many doctors have stated their opposition to the stance taken by our government scientists… and their opinions and presentations are quickly removed.

It is no longer possible to have a debate between opposing opinions, as it used to be in the USA that I have admired for so many years.

By metmike - May 10, 2020, 12:37 a.m.
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Mike,

Missed your post earlier. Sorry to hear about your Aunt. 


Maybe this will  help to cheer you up:


Punxsutawney Phil Arrested For Fraud

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51918/

By TimNew - May 10, 2020, 7:14 a.m.
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I'm not convinced that shut downs have helped.   Two items.


Sweden has called on it's citizens to act responsibly and go about their business.  While they have had more cases than their immediate neighbors, they have had far less than most of Europe.

Also,  our immunity needs exercise.  We need to be exposed to have it,  otherwise,  we lose it. So when we do get back to something resembling normal,  we'll get sick from all the things to which  we used to be immune.


So,  an argument could be made that the "shelter in place" has not only had no benefits, it may have done more harm, and not just to the economy 


By WxFollower - May 10, 2020, 1:28 p.m.
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 Mike,

   It looked like to me that you were subtlety implying that my comments in this thread saying that I don’t think the govt guidelines are an overreaction was based on being anti-Trump whereas I didn’t say anything anti-Trump in this thread.  In contrast, I actually am in support of his WH Task Force’s guidelines and even gave Trump kudos in criticizing Gov Kemp for violating them.

By WxFollower - May 10, 2020, 1:46 p.m.
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Gunter said:

“Now take this tidbit of information:

‘MN Sen. and Dr. Jensen said that he received a 7 page document from the MN Department of Health advising him to fill out death certificates with a diagnosis of #COVID-19 whether the person actually died from COVID-19 or not.’ (link available on request)

Since this was published, many doctors have stepped forward and quoted similar orders from above.

‘Science’ stops right here. This is data manipulation…. fraud. This puts our ‘scientists’ immediately into the category of ‘pseudoscience’”

——————————-

Gunter,

  So, it sounds like that based on this in MN, you’re leaping to the conclusion that all of our scientists are really pseudoscientists. That’s quite a leap and tells me that you’re begging for confirmation biased "opinions". You're even in disagreement with Mike, who has shown his support for Dr. Fauci.


 You appear to want one outcome: that this is a fake event. To that, here’s a relevant meme:








By WxFollower - May 10, 2020, 1:51 p.m.
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Tim said:

“I'm not convinced that shut downs have helped.   Two items.


Sweden has called on it's citizens to act responsibly and go about their business.  While they have had more cases than their immediate neighbors, they have had far less than most of Europe.

Also,  our immunity needs exercise.  We need to be exposed to have it,  otherwise,  we lose it. So when we do get back to something resembling normal,  we'll get sick from all the things to which  we used to be immune.


So,  an argument could be made that the "shelter in place" has not only had no benefits, it may have done more harm, and not just to the economy.”

——————————-

Tim,

 1. But Sweden still has had more deaths than surrounding countries. How does that support your doubts about lockdowns helping?

2. Regarding immunity, please provide scientific proof that being at home for 2 months is long enough to result in a significant reduction in the capability of our immune systems.


By metmike - May 10, 2020, 2:11 p.m.
Like Reply

 "It looked like to me that you were subtlety implying that my comments in this thread saying that I don’t think the govt guidelines are an overreaction was based on being anti-Trump whereas I didn’t say anything anti-Trump in this thread. "

Hi Larry,

My comments were directed at the media and in general democrats who seem to fall in line with narratives broadcast by them and by politicians. 

By metmike - May 10, 2020, 2:17 p.m.
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It seems silly to not think that staying at home would cut back on the transmission.

How do you think this disease spreads?

We don't get it from people on the tv set or computer (-:

You have to encounter a person that has it or the remnants that they left behind. The more people you encounter, the more people you will encounter with COVID-19.

By metmike - May 10, 2020, 2:26 p.m.
Like Reply



This is pretty silly too.

It doesn't at all address how many died/lives were saved and what the price was to save those lives.........which is THE relevant point that people are making.


There is no formula that tells us a life is worth X amount to the rest of the living in lost economic and other things that contribute to the quality of life.

However, we can use precedent..........how about the flu that has been around for many decades.

Using that precedent, the statement above is completely out of line for not recognizing a loss many orders of magnitude greater to peoples lives compared to the deaths.


By WxFollower - May 10, 2020, 3:41 p.m.
Like Reply

MetMike said:

"There is no formula that tells us a life is worth X amount to the rest of the living in lost economic and other things that contribute to the quality of life.

However, we can use precedent..........how about the flu that has been around for many decades.

Using that precedent, the statement above is completely out of line for not recognizing a loss many orders of magnitude greater to peoples lives compared to the deaths."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike,

1. How do you know how bad COVID-19 may have gotten with no lockdowns keeping in mind a) how much more contagious, b) how much more severe (longlasting damage in many cases even if not killed)  and c) how much more deadly COVID-19 is vs the typical flu?

2.  We still don't know how bad potential future waves of this will be. The story is far from being over, unfortunately.

3. Reminder: 1918-9 was a flu and there were major lockdowns done then, too. COVID-19 is not the first outbreak leading to this.


 


By metmike - May 10, 2020, 4:38 p.m.
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Mike,

1. How do you know how bad COVID-19 may have gotten with no lockdowns keeping in mind a) how much more contagious, b) how much more severe (longlasting damage in many cases even if not killed)  and c) how much more deadly COVID-19 is vs the typical flu?

By metmike - May 10, 2020, 5:25 p.m.
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Mike,

"1. How do you know how bad COVID-19 may have gotten with no lockdowns keeping in mind a) how much more contagious, b) how much more severe (longlasting damage in many cases even if not killed)  and c) how much more deadly COVID-19 is vs the typical flu?"


As I have been saying, we don't and I don't know for sure but already made statements like this one earlier in the thread that answered your question about what I think:

"But people are scared shirtless of this virus. Yeah, it's 10 times worse than the flu if you are old and sick and 5 times more contagious. Not 1,000 times worse or even 100 times worse or even 50 times worse."

"I emphatically supported the most extreme shut downs for numerous weeks........until we got to the point where we have enough data to know our health care system will not be overwhelmed."

So we ended up doing much more damage to the economy and peoples lives by a wide margin compared to what the virus did to us and compared to any flu season in history. This is indisputable to the objective onlooker.

Thus my comparison to damage we incurred vs damage from the virus(flu)

Give me a flu season, where we took precautions that damaged the economy and peoples lives that amounted to even a fraction of this year. There isn't one.

And again, I was all for doing this in the beginning to avoid a POTENTIAL medical armegdedan, so please don't  imply that I'm underestimating how bad it could have gotten. I considered the worst case scenario as a possibility and its why I was 100% in favor of the shut downs from day 1 and for over a month.......until around 2 weeks ago.

Now we can look back and see that, although it was the correct decision at the time and faced with it again, we have to do the same thing because even a 1% chance of 1,000,000 people dying is too high to take, that we erred on the side that caused a MUCH MUCH greater loss, a known and controlled and self imposed loss to peoples lives from the shut downs than what the virus actually did. You might not think so if your dad died from it or COULD have died from it but everybody that loses a person from the 40,000 who die each year from the flu might think "dang, too bad we did NOTHING, other than have a vaccine to stop the spread of this virus.

We did 1,000 times more than NOTHING to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

It worked at a massive cost, as your quote says. What it might have prevented, as I said made it the right decision.

Now, its crazy to move the goal posts, using the same strategy to fight it as before but now, we are just trying to minimize the spread and deaths(or keep them from increasing) with the same penalty as we had before when the objective before was to prevent a total collapse of the medical health system and potentially a million deaths.

Maybe this will make the point more clear.

Case 1. Complete shut downs(and imposing an economic apocalypse intentionally and with certainty, ruining tens of millions of peoples lives) to avoid  the potential of an even worse, potential medical apocalypse  that could overwhelm our health care system and cause some people to not get treatment because we ran out of hospital beds............. WORTH IT! This was where we were in March/April. 

Case 2. Complete shut downs(and imposing an economic apocalypse intentionally and with certainty, ruining tens of millions of peoples lives even more) to minimize deaths and lessen the chance that the virus could increase again................really dumb by several orders of magnitude. This is where we are in May. 

The science of shutting down lessening the spread being used to justify staying shut down?

Oh, but the virus might come back if we open back up too soon and we are so scared shirtless by what CNN and NYT tell us with their intentionally false numbers(to convince people that its getting worse in all the states that opened up-a huge lie) that we must stay shut in.

We can ask this simple question. If CNN/MSNBC/NYT, who clearly are politicizing this and trying to convince us that the economy is opening too soon, had good points, why did they have to lie about the actual data in 8 out of 9 states as their evidence?

Tell us that opening up is causing models to double the number of deaths?

Tell us that a model just updated increases new cases at the end of the month by 8 times the current rate because of opening up too soon?

Answer: Because the truth would have shown that they are dead wrong. 

Pathetic bs coming from an MSM propaganda sewer, using the coronavirus to take advantage of the  American people who are more vulnerable than ever in history and need accurate/reliable data about this rapidly changing, unprecedented threat more than ever.

Their Political agenda trumps the truth or love for Americans. 

But they sure act like they care about us. Of course they do, that's why they want us to stay shut in much longer...........to save lives. 

Propaganda and those selling it can seem very convincing. And when they get busted? Oh, no big deal. Just ignore it and keep believing the stuff we want to believe because cognitive bias drives how we process all information.

I mean this in general, not directed at a particular person and it affects both sides but in this case, I'm singling out the MSM for using it to capture peoples minds using a diabolical scheme. 


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51149/

                Chris Cuomo            

                            9 responses |                

                Started by metmike - April 25, 2020, 1:11 p.m.            

By metmike - May 14, 2020, 1:52 p.m.
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By metmike - May 14, 2020, 2:02 p.m.
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                Deaths suddenly doubling in BS model            

                            20 responses |              

                Started by metmike - May 5, 2020, 2:26 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51673/


Continues to be BS! Does the graph below updated with the latest data look like infection rates are going higher because we are opening up?

The  falling blue line is the plot of the daily numbers. The orange line is the total number.

The science is defined by this data. Follow the science! 

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

                                    


By wglassfo - May 14, 2020, 3:34 p.m.
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When, where, how etc we open up now or later seems to me , that we will never have agreement. Too many reasons to disagree, on both sides IMHO, as it should be, for those with the ability to think

However, one things does confuse me a bit

Why are the pubs on one side of the argument and the Dems on the other side for the great majority of those expressing an opinion

If people were fair minded about the question, you would have a mixture of dems and pubs on both sides of the question

But, that is not the situation




If our politicians can say they are truly thinking about our best interest, then should there not be support for either side of the question, with a mixture of opinions from all politicians

Dr's, scientist etc have expressed different opinions

Why not our politicians

Somebody should take our politicians to task over making our lives and economics a political foot ball, as of this time. Somebody needs to point out and question why the Dems and Pubs are in such a solid group think 

By metmike - May 14, 2020, 3:40 p.m.
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The longer we stay shut down, the more historic damage we do to the economy, more businesses fail, more millions of people suffer, more blame to put on Trump because it happened under his watch.

We all know that Trump getting elected in November will depend on the outcome of this situation.

If the economy is rapidly recovering before November, odds of Trump being elected again go way up.

Profoundly sad but true.

By metmike - May 14, 2020, 3:54 p.m.
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Wayne,

I only look at the science......defined by the data of new daily cases and the science that defines the quality of peoples lives...........and what we know about this virus.

It's so dang one sided and the complete opposite of what the side claiming to "follow their science"  is telling us(stay shut in indefinitely).

Let's ask some questions:

1. Have we peaked-yes

2. Are rates dropping-yes

3. Did we flatten the curve-yes

4. Did the health care system hold up solidly-yes

5. 2 months ago, when we shut down, were those the objectives of the shutdown-yes

6. Are we so afraid that the virus might come back, that we are 100 times more concerned about that than we should be-yes

7. Has the economy been obliterated by decisions made above to accomplish objectives that were accomplished-yes

8. Will the economy get worse if we stay shut in-yes

9. Will the economy get better if we open up slowly-yes

10. Will peoples lives get better if we open up slowly-yes

11. Can the virus be managed if we open up slowly and use what we've learned the past 2 months(social distancing, wearing masks, ect) yes\

12. Does the science tell us that warmth/humidity and sunshine kill COVID-19-yes

13. Does it get warm and more humid with more powerful sunshine every Spring/Summer-yes

14. Has this crushed the flu virus's every year during the last century-yes

15. Are we developing new treatments for COVID-19-yes


Should we be opening up YES X 15 solid reasons


1. If we stay shut in and the economy doesn't recover before November, does it lessen the chance of Trump being elected-yes

1 big reason for never Trumpers to want to stay shut in.

By WxFollower - May 14, 2020, 7:02 p.m.
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 Does the US as a whole yet have enough testing and contact tracing to make it safe to open things way up without the chance for a dramatic increase in cases/deaths? NO

 This to many people trumps a lot of the yes's that Mike just listed. What Mike just posted is just an opinion. A very strong and well thought out opinion, but still just an opinion. And it would likely get a good % of posters here in support. But this forum is slanted heavily nowadays. Many Americans, if not most, would have a much different assessment based on polling I've seen in favor of not opening up too quickly.

 Once the US has enough testing and contact tracing in place, can it open way up safely? YES

 Hardly anyone is suggesting to delay opening way up till an effective vaccine is ready. Nowhere near that is being suggested.

  

By metmike - May 14, 2020, 7:39 p.m.
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" Does the US as a whole yet have enough testing and contact tracing to make it safe to open things way up without the chance for a dramatic increase in cases/deaths? NO"


Larry,

How did you get "open things way up"

from this:

 

9. Will the economy get better if we open up slowly-yes

10. Will peoples lives get better if we open up slowly-yes

11. Can the virus be managed if we open up slowly and use what we've learned the past 2 months(social distancing, wearing masks, ect) yes\

By metmike - May 14, 2020, 7:47 p.m.
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"Many Americans, if not most, would have a much different assessment based on polling I've seen in favor of not opening up too quickly."


I agree very much with that. Should decisions be made based on polling?

I believe this:

6. Are (some people)  so afraid that the virus might come back, that (they) are 100 times more concerned about that than (they) should be-yes


I adjusted it to make it (some people) (they) and was  not referring to you but mean just people's extreme fear in general.


I really understand your point of view too. The virus is much more contagious than the flu and much more deadly for old and especially old and sick people.

The longer we stay shut down, the lower the numbers will get.  However, we have already increased our testing a great deal. The increase in testing may be responsible for close to half of the new case numbers that we were not picking up a month ago. It's making it look much worse than it really is. 

Dialing that into our understanding of where we are is an important part of the science too. 

There are very few places currently that  are suffering an outbreak close to pushing their hospitals to the limit.

The economy has been pushed beyond the limit and is broken badly. 

If we tried to make a medical similarity, it would be like the hospitals in much of the country were completely full and some patients were getting turned away because we don't have the capacity to accommodate/treat them.

We are trying to balance the depression type economy/peoples shut down suffering with the medical reality/risks.

They are clearly waaaaay unbalanced in one direction. 

The FEAR of it going the other way is the only thing that rationalizes maintaining it like this longer. 


By metmike - May 14, 2020, 8:19 p.m.
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Here's more science:

80% of US coronavirus deaths have been among people 65 and older, a new CDC report says — here's what it reveals about the US cases

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-us-coronavirus-deaths-ages-65-older-cdc-report-2020-3

The stats below show that 74% of the deaths occur to people that are 65+ years old.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

                      

So do we have universal shut ins and the same rules for all ages when people under 65, which are a much, much larger portion of the population, are only  having 20% of the deaths?

 Retirement/nursing homes and similar facilities should stay completely shut in with extreme measures taken with anybody that enters those buildings.....until the regional/local infection rates plunge to very low numbers, then they can open up a little but no more until a vaccine is available.

People under 65 should have more freedom, while still applying behavior/actions that minimize transmission risks.

    


By metmike - May 15, 2020, 1:27 p.m.
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Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

 PhDMeteorologist and Climate Scientist -data scientist-historian-listen to the science-top expert



@RyanMaue


Nursing homes in Georgia and Florida have largely escaped the tragic circumstances of states in the Northeast.  Why is that?   Both states deployed the state's National Guard to bolster testing & disinfecting crews at vulnerable nursing homes.



@RyanMaue

There's no scientific justification for the #JerseyShore to be closed right now.  Closing the outdoors means people are cooped up indoors & more at risk.  Gov Murphy should resign.

Quote Tweet

News12NJ

@News12NJ

 ·

#BREAKING: Gov. Phil Murphy says the #JerseyShore will be open in time for Memorial Day Weekend, with social distancing guidelines in place

d 38 others you follow

Ryan Maue’s Tweets

@RyanMaue

·

Democrats have formed another climate group to influence the 2020 election.  "Evergreen" is run by alums and supporters of Gov Jay Inslee's ill-fated presidential campaign. https://evergreenaction.com/plan "It's time for an all-out national mobilization to defeat the climate crisis."

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Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

 ·

Democrats have formed a new "Climate Power" group to influence the 2020 election.  Same names and faces as we've seen in the climate movement for decades.   The goal will be to push a far left agenda including the Green New Deal. https://sierraclub.org/press-releases/2020/05/climate-power-2020-launches-campaign-change-politics-climate

@RyanMaue

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Where are they getting all of this money for these spiffy climate advocacy groups?   Mostly billionaire Tom Steyer but also the usual foundations.


@RyanMaue

·

There's no scientific justification for the #JerseyShore to be closed right now.  Closing the outdoors means people are cooped up indoors & more at risk.  Gov Murphy should resign.

Quote Tweet

News12NJ

@News12NJ

 ·

#BREAKING: Gov. Phil Murphy says the #JerseyShore will be open in time for Memorial Day Weekend, with social distancing guidelines in place


@RyanMaue

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While Georgia's governor Kemp allowed many businesses to reopen 3 weeks ago, very few actually did immediately.   And today May 14th, big chain gyms are closed across Metro, restaurants are shuttered or kaput and millions are unemployed.   It's not a rosy economic picture.

@RyanMaue

·

COVID-19 data is still trending downward even though the models said otherwise if restrictions were lifted.  Turns out everyone is doing a good job of social distancing, wearing a mask, and staying away from large groups all on their own w/o oppressive state of Georgia rules.