I am guessing it will take some time to get into positive territory

2 yrs??    longer  --   shorter??   time frame???

Any guesses ??

I think employment numbers will decide the GDP

Actually I think one goes with the other, step by step, but I am no economist

Hard to believe we are approaching depression era unemployment

I'd like to hear the reasoning behind the thoughts that suggest 2+ years till we see any growth,

The great thing about crashes is that you start from such a low point,  any improvement is growth.  "It's not much but it's ours".

So far, infrastructure remains where it was pre-crash. The only thing that needs to change is people's behavior, and that's already begun. 

Baring a major setback in the virus, which I think is unlikely,  it's entirely possible we'll see growth in the 3rd qtr and quite likely we'll see growth in the 4th.

Hi Tim

I think we are talking about two different things

You mention growth which will obviously increase as we re-open.

I was speculating on when we reach pre-corona virus levels of economic activity. But more specifically GDP equal to pre corona virus numbers

I don't know what number for GDP is considered a recession or a depression. I looked it up on goggle once but I forget the definition of recession vs depression

I  think it was a factor of GDP

However, you are correct, any increase in activity is growth of GDP

If I am waiting for GDP numbers to equal pre corona virus numbers, I will specculate we will take at least two yrs or longer. My reasoning is what I see around me and how our family business of manufacturing and grain prices have been affected. The fact our food processing plants are still shut down or reduced out put is telling me it will take a long time for that segment to reach pre corona virus levels of production. Will Corp find ways to do more with less labour IDK?? If so then unemployment will be a drag on the economy as not as much money is circulating to buy stuff. Big ticket items such as construction, commercial trucks or any large equipment will take a long time to recover as many state and personal budgets have blown up and some [a lot] of capital expenses will be reduced

Consumers have reduced demand for new houses,  and automobiles as the auto industry has way too much unsold inventory, much of which is reduced car rental or  private  purchases, which will take a long time to reduce that inventory. Other big ticket items such as big screen TV, kitchen appliances, furniture etc will not rebound very fast as the consumer is over loaded with excessive debt. Granted some segments have actually increased activity post corona virus lock down, so all is not doom and gloom.

That is some of the reasons why I think getting back to pre corona virus GDP will take two yrs or longer Actually I think longer than two yrs but as I said this is just a guess on my part

I see Goldman is starting a chart to show economic activity for all parts of the economy to show where we are compared to pre corona virus days

Will be interesting as the market watches increased activity and which segments re-bound quickly or slower as we re-open for business

M2 is increasing really fast. Once businesses open again, there IS money in the system to get things really going.

Hi Richard

I was not watching M2 money supply

Do you know where that money  come from

Was this a result of stimulas money cheques going to individuals

I was under the impression with high unemployment, people would be hoarding any surplus money, as the bills come due, and job security is unknown for many people. Granted some people received more money when not working, and there were line ups at some retail outlets for shopping, as re-opening started.

Maybe re-opening will get the economy going quickly IDK

This increase in M2 money supply is a surprise to me  Glad you made me aware of that info 

Next question?? Will people spend this money??? pay down debt or?? People need to spend money, to kick start the economy, I think. Some obviously are spending money as the line ups for shopping show us. On the other hand we have a huge demand for food banks. Classic example of "two cities"

Do you think very much of this money will end up in the stk market, or is this M2 money in the hands of people that do not normally invest in the stk market.

Just curious about what you think happens to this M2 money supply. I think it needs to circulate to get the economy going. Stk market or hoarding isn't money circulating