INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 18, 2020, 7:28 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, May 18, 2020  



10:00 AM ET. May NAHB Housing Market Index



                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 30)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading as data shows slowing virus growth and Fed chief expresses optimism in capability.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8920.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 9345.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  8920.74. Second support is the May 4th low crossing at 8556.25.

 

The June S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off  March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the May 4th low crossing at 2775.40 would confirm April's double top. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2957.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80. First support is May 4th low crossing at 2775.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2720.20. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 12th high crossing at 184-07 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 177-14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes below April's low crossing at 177-14 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range. First resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is May's low crossing at 178-01. Second support is April's low crossing at 177-14.  



June T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the  RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.103. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.    



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off April's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $33.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at  $31.82. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $33.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.24. Second support is the April 28th low crossing at $10.07. Third support is April's low crossing at $6.50.



June heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for  a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.30 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 116.02.. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.30. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 116.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.18. Second support is April's low crossing at 67.24.    



June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 107.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 103.28. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 107.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.84. Second support is April's low crossing at 52.51.  



June Henry natural gas was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.519 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.869 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average  crossing at 1.798. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.869. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.595. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.519.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading while extending the April-May trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the April 24th high crossing at 100.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 99.84 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is May's low crossing at 98.78. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. 



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 107.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving  average crossing at 109.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 110.29. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. First support is April's low crossing at 107.39. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.    



The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 1.2045 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2354 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.2653. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 1.2045. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.1438.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading while extending the April-May trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 1.0216 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0370 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.0443. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0216. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight while extending the March-May trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 21st low crossing at 70.12 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the April 13th high crossing at 72.25 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range.First resistance is 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 73.80. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 70.12. Second support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.74. Third support is March's low crossing at 68.20.  



The June Japanese Yen was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.0943. Second resistance is the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951. First support is the April 23rd low crossing at 0.0926. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Third support is March's low crossing at 0.0900. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:June gold was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to  higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish  signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the April 14th high crossing at $1788.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the May 1st low crossing at $1676.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1775.00. Second resistance is the  April 14th high crossing at $1788.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1671.40. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20.



July silver was higher overnight confirming last-Friday's upside breakout of the April-May trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $18.134 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.624 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $17.855. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $18.134. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.960. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.132. 



July copper was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380 is the next upside target. Closes below the May 4th low crossing at 2.2840 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.5468. First support is the May 4th low crossing at 2.2840. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at 2.2170. Third support is March's low crossing at 1.9795.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at $3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.35 1/2. First support is April's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.    



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at $4.94 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at $4.95 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.94 1/4.

   

July Kansas City Wheat closed up a $0.00 1/2-cent at $4.52 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $4.47. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $5.02. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher overnight. The higher-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the April 13th high crossing at $8.77 1/2 is the next upside target. If July resumes last-week's decline, April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.55 1/4. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at $8.77 1/2. First support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.    



July soybean meal was fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above May's high crossing at $295.80 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 299.30. First support is April's low crossing at $285.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.     



July soybean oil was higher overnight while extending the March-May trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.58 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 25.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 27.84. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is April's low crossing at 25.09. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $0.88 at $57.87. 



June hogs closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $68.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $68.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at  $74.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.11. Second support is the April 29th low crossing at $54.78.     



June cattle closed up $2.88 at $97.00. 



June cattle closed higher on Friday as it extended the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $98.26. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.62. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at $80.27. Third support is April's low crossing at $76.60.   



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.03-cents at $131.08. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $127.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $139.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $130.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $127.68.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed steady on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 10.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.36 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at 23.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.68 is the next upside target.       



July sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.71 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If July renews the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 8.36 is the next downside target.          



July cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 61.06. Closes below the May 6th low crossing at 53.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        



Comments
By metmike - May 18, 2020, 1:09 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


The lows are in for natural gas. Double bottom last week with early April.

Heat in the forecast and more residential cooling demand. Bullish ng


Heat is good for early crop development this early in the growing season. But will the pattern turn extreme and become bullish for the grains?