INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - May 20, 2020, 3:59 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, May 21, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 2450K; previous 2981K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -195K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 22833000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +456K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1627.7K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1095.5K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 353.3K)



8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (expected -45.0; previous -56.6)



                       Prices Paid (previous -9.3)



                       Employment (previous -46.7)



                       New Orders (previous -70.9)



                       Prices Received (previous -10.6)



                       Delivery Times (previous 4.1)



                       Inventories (previous -10.2)



                       Shipments (previous -74.1)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (expected 38.0; previous 36.9)



9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (expected 28.8; previous 27.0)



10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales



                       Existing Sales (expected 4.35M; previous 5.27M)



                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -17.5%; previous -8.5%)



                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.4)



                       Median Price (USD) (previous 280600)



                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +8.0%)



10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators



                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected -5.1%; previous -6.7%)



                       Leading Index (previous 104.2)



                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous -0.9%)



                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +1.2%)



10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2422B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +103B)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, May 22, 2020  



10:00 AM ET. April Regional & State Employment & Unemployment



Monday, May 25, 2020  



  N/A              U.S.: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed



  N/A              U.S: Jefferson Davis' Birthday holiday in Mississippi


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Wednesday following upbeat quarterly corporate results from retailers Target and Lowe’s, but off the session’s best levels as a bill to delist Chinese companies on U.S. exchanges cleared the Senate. The mid-range close that sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 25,199.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,980.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 24,764.77. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 25,199.76. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,980.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22,834.79.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 9780.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9011.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9497.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9780.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9011.00. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 8847.00. Second support is the May 4th low crossing at 8556.25.   



The June S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the April-May trading range. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3085.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 22nd low crossing at 2720.20 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2964.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3085.85. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2780.70. Second support is the April 22nd low crossing at 2720.20.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 15/32's at 179-19.

  

June T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday while extending the April-May trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 14th low crossing at 177-14 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the April 22nd high crossing at 183-02 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at 183-02. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 177-26. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at 177-14. 



June T-notes closed up 15-points at 139.020.



June T-notes closed higher on Wednesday while extending the April-May trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.112 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.112. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.         



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $34.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $33.74. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $34.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $28.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.13. 



July heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at $100.22. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $106.38. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $94.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.88. 



July unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 125.43. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 109.27. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 125.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.57.  



July Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.065 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.065. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.364. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.822. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.802.          



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the April-May trading range.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 98.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 99.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is May's low crossing at 98.77. Second support is the March 27thlow crossing at 98.34. Third support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14. 



The June Euro closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.23 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 110.29 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off the March 27th high, April's low crossing at 107.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 110.29. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. First support is April's low crossing at 107.39. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71. 



The June British Pound closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day bounce. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 1.2045 is the next downside target.First resistance isthe 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2350. Second resistance is the April 30th high crossing at 1.2647. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2079. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 1.2045.



The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0353 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, May's high crossing at 1.0441 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 24th low crossing at 1.0216 would confirm a downside breakout of the April-May trading range. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.0441. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1.0443. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0216. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0138.



The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the April-May trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off the April 30th high, the April 21st low crossing at 70.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 30th high crossing at 72.21. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 70.12. Second support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.73. Third support is March's low crossing at 68.20. 



The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951 is the next upside target. First resistance is long-term resistance crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Third support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold closed higher on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at $1676.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $1788.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1775.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1788.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1673.90. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20.



July silver closed higher on Wednesday extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 19.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.868 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 18.134. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 19.075. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.496. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.868.  



July copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 230.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 246.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 254.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 236.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 230.63. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.02-cents at 3.19 1/4. 



July corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the April-May trading range. The mid-range close sets  the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $3.00 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off April's low the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 23rd high crossing at 3.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.33 1/4. First support is April's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.    



July wheat closed up $0.16 1/2-cents at $5.15 1/4.  



July wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day high crossing at $5.30 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing  at $4.93 3/4. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.11 3/4-cents at $4.53 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.60 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.71 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.12 1/4-cents at $5.20 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 5.48 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $5.02. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.       



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down $0.04-cents at $8.46 1/2.



July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.53 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.53 1/2. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at $8.77 1/2. First support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.    



July soybean meal closed up $0.90 at $285.50. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $294.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $298.40. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $283.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.      



July soybean oil closed up 26-pts. At 27.35. 



July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.56. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 27.84 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 25.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 27.84. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 28.14. First support is April's low crossing at 25.09. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $0.23 at $56.88. 



June hogs closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $56.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $68.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $68.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at  $74.93. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $56.17. Second support is the April 29th low crossing at $54.78.     



June cattle closed down $0.38 at $98.40. 



June cattle closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $100.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $95.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.76.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $2.93-cents at $129.00. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $130.64 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. If August extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.36 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $139.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $127.36. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 10.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.33 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.         



July sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 11.45 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 10.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 61.06. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        



Comments
By metmike - May 20, 2020, 4:24 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


I'm reading that the rally in wheat may have been partly to mostly caused by dry weather in Europe. It does in fact look very dry there on the maps below.

The models don't look as warm today for week 2 which could be part of the reason for the lower price for natural gas.