PMI Composite shows US rate of collapse peaked in April
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Started by TimNew - May 21, 2020, 10:42 a.m.

I put less stock in PMI than I do ISM, and a number of other metrics,   but I'm not gonna pass up a chance to post something resembling good news  :-)

I think over the next month, we'll be seeing lots of positives.

Manufacturing and services firms reported slightly slower rate of contraction in May 

U.S. private sector firms reported a slightly slower rate of contraction in activity in May, according to latest PMI data from IHS Markit.

The firm said its flash manufacturing purchasing index rose to 39.8 in May from 36.1in April. Meanwhile the flash services purchasing managers index rose in May fell to 36.9  from 26.7.

Any reading below 50 indicates worsening conditions. The flash estimate is typically based on approximately 85%-90% of total survey responses each month.

By wglassfo - May 21, 2020, 11:20 a.m.
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Hi Tim

I really don't know if this is good news or not

I would rather see at least an equal number which would indicate things are not getting worse. But we still contracted, even with some re-opening of the economy. 

 Golly the re-opening seems way to slow, for recovery

I would think we have to see a decline in unemployment,  for signs of a solid recovery

Instead we increased once again, which IMO is not good. I wonder what rate of unemployment is considered depression numbers

By metmike - May 21, 2020, 11:23 a.m.
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Thanks Tim!

For sure we are recovering. Question is, what will the rate be(how fast)?

The main thing that would interfere would be if opening up slowly causes rates to go way up again............they have been falling and considering we've more than doubled the testing the REAL rate is likely less half the new case rate of a month ago.

By wglassfo - May 21, 2020, 12:03 p.m.
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I just read that the unemployment data was wrong

Some think we may have reached peak unemployment

If so, that is an important number to consider for recovery

And like Mike says if we can keep new cases of infection under control them we should be looking much better

Tyson Foods is still having out breaks when testing workers and the auto plants seem to have problems staying open

But we can't expect everyting to go smoothly

I was really a doom and gloomer, earlier today, but to me unemployment numbers are really important and that number should get better. Unemployment tells us a lot of things  about economic recovery, strength etc.

Just thought I would add to the good news