Lockdowns failed to change course of virus
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Started by GunterK - May 23, 2020, 3:32 p.m.

another study....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

I just read that even Dr Fauci is now questioning the value of lockdowns

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By metmike - May 23, 2020, 6:27 p.m.
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CNN's new theme song (-:

Dream Is Collapsing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzLhXesNkCI


Left-Wing Intellectuals Are Thrilled: Corona And Dreams Of The End Of Capitalism

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rainerzitelmann/2020/03/30/left-wing-intellectuals-are-thrilled-corona-and-dreams-of-the-end-of-capitalism/#d17c9977420d

The Canadian anti-globalization activist Naomi Klein says the corona crisis could be the catalyst for a kind of “evolutionary leap.” Just as the Great Depression led to Roosevelt’s New Deal, she explains, so could the coronavirus pandemic present the opportunity for the Green New Deal: “In fact, it’s possible for crisis to catalyze a kind of evolutionary leap. Think of the 1930s, when the Great Depression led to the New Deal…. It’s called the Green New Deal. Instead of rescuing the dirty industries of the last century, we should be boosting the clean ones that will lead us into safety in the coming century. 

Left-wing intellectuals everywhere expect the coronacrisis to deliver on their dashed hopes from the 2008 financial crisis, namely a fundamental reorganization of society and the abolition of capitalism. William Davies, a British sociologist and political economist, writes “We can already identify a few ways that 2020 and its aftermath will differ from the crisis of the 1970s. First, while its transmission has followed the flightpaths of global capitalism—business travel, tourism, trade—its root cause is external to the economy. The degree of devastation it will spread is due to very basic features of global capitalism that almost no economist questions—high levels of international connectivity and the reliance of most people on the labour market. These are not features of a particular economic policy paradigm, in the way that fixed exchange rates and collective bargaining were fundamental to Keynesianism. They are features of capitalism as such….It will take years or decades for the significance of 2020 to be fully understood. But we can be sure that, as an authentically global crisis, it is also a global turning point. There is a great deal of emotional, physical and financial pain in the immediate future. But a crisis of this scale will never be truly resolved until many of the fundamentals of our social and economic life have been remade.”

 

By metmike - May 23, 2020, 6:58 p.m.
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In the midst of an economic crisis, can 'degrowth' provide an answer?

Degrowthers are susceptible to caricature – but their ideas raise important questions about how, how much, and why we work


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/24/economic-crisis-degrowth-green-new-deal

Amid the misery and chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic, there are some short-term consolations. The precipitous drop in road and air traffic has left the air cleaner and the skies clearer. For advocates of a Green New Deal (GND) – a vast, state-funded green infrastructure project, including a total transition to renewable energy and the construction of mass transit systems – there are reasons to be optimistic.


Yet there is one important criticism of degrowth that has been decisively bolstered by the sharp reversal in global economic fortunes resulting from the coronavirus lockdowns: the consequences for jobs. GDP is a notoriously crude and partial measure of a society’s wellbeing, failing to account for a whole host of indicative factors including equality, access to energy, the quality of healthcare, education and social support systems. But when GDP falls or slows because workers cannot produce goods or offer services, unemployment surges. Coronavirus has brought that reality dramatically home.

As the economist and energy adviser Robert Pollin has written: “the immediate effect of any global GDP contraction would be huge job losses and declining living standards for working people and the poor. During the Great Recession, global unemployment rose by over 30 million. I have not seen a convincing argument from a degrowth advocate as to how we could avoid a severe rise in mass unemployment if GDP were to fall by twice as much.”

By metmike - May 24, 2020, 12:26 a.m.
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Behind Trump’s demand to reopen churches: Slipping poll numbers and alarm inside his campaign

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/22/trump-churches-evaneglicals-coronavirus-274842

To safeguard his relationship with religious conservatives, Trump on Friday demanded that America‘s governors permit houses of worship to immediately reopen, and threatened to “override“ state leaders who decline to obey his directive. The announcement — which came days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention omitted religious institutions in new guidance about industry reopenings — featured clear appeals to white evangelicals, many of whom have long supported Trump's socially conservative agenda. 

“Some governors have deemed liquor stores and abortion clinics as essential, but have left out churches and other houses of worship. It's not right. So, I'm correcting this injustice and calling houses of worship essential,“ Trump said. 

Some allies have taken it upon themselves to warn donors and grassroots volunteers not to fret about Trump’s softened support among religious conservatives, downplaying its significance on his overall shot at a second term.

By WxFollower - May 24, 2020, 3:02 a.m.
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Gunter said: "I just read that even Dr Fauci is now questioning the value of lockdowns"

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 This is what Fauci said in this CNBC interview:

  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-anthony-fauci-says-staying-closed-for-too-long-could-cause-irreparable-damage.html


"Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing 'irreparable damage' if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC on Friday.

'I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,' Fauci said during an interview with CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on 'Halftime Report.'

He said the U.S. had to institute severe measures because Covid-19 cases were exploding then. 'But now is the time, depending upon where you are and what your situation is, to begin to seriously look at reopening the economy, reopening the country to try to get back to some degree of normal.'"

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 So, Fauci is by no means second guessing the lockdowns that were put into place. He's still saying they had to be done. What he's saying is that if they go on for too long, they could then cause more bad than good. That's why the WH Task Force came up with guidelines for reopening.

 Gunter, maybe you agree with all of this. But when you said "Dr. Fauci is now questioning the value of lockdowns", I didn't know if you meant he was just looking ahead and questioning the value if they go on too much longer or else that you meant that he was looking back and second guessing how long lockdowns have lasted. If you meant that he is now questioning if they go on too much longer, I'd largely be in agreement about what you're saying about Fauci as per the CNBC article I quoted. But if you're saying Fauci is now second guessing that they may have gone on too long, I'd say that this article is telling me that you'd be misinterpreting what Fauci is saying.

 I hope I'm making sense here. I just want the readers to be clear about what Dr. Fauci actually said and what you meant.


By patrick - May 24, 2020, 9:25 a.m.
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The point of lockdowns was to buy time to put in full bore testing, tracing, & quarantine. They did buy some time - remember, case count was doubling ever few days when they were imposed
With strong lockdowns & lots of work on the followup, it worked in East Asia & across Europe.

In the US, we did a weak lockdown, and very little toward establishing a sustainable control program.
Now that lockdown is ending, with the disease still uncontrolled and new case numbers steady or rising in half the states, we're in the soup.

By metmike - May 24, 2020, 1:01 p.m.
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Thanks!

The vast majority of cases were reported in just 9 states(in red below) and in those states, concentrated in urban areas. Many of the other 41 states have always had low numbers.

Below that. Cases are falling from April and steady in the last week to 10 days(they could go back up and you might end up being right but I'm just commenting on the actual data, not speculating). Since we have more than doubled the tests being administered in the last month, we are detecting MANY MORE cases that were not being detected before and they are showing up as new infections, which is keeping the rate from falling much faster. 

Find this data here: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en





Daily new cases in blue below. Cumulative new cases in orange

America’s coronavirus testing numbers are really improving

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/14/21257264/coronavirus-testing-positive-rate-covid-reopen-usa

Testing for coronavirus has passed 350,000 tests per day.