INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - May 28, 2020, 4:40 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, May 29, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous -2%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -7.5%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)



8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 854.9K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1669K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 428.2K)



9:45 AM ET. May ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (previous 35.4)



10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 71.8)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 70.1)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.1%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 74.3)



3:00 April Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.8%)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed lower on Friday over rising U.S. - China tensions.The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 26,700.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,233.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25,758.79. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the  February-March-decline crossing at 26,700.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,233.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23,151.86.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 9780.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9170.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9604.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9780.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9170.25. Second support is the May 15th low crossing at 8847.00. Third support is the May 4th low crossing at 8556.25.   



The June S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3085.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2905.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3048.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February- March-decline crossing at 3085.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2905.13. Second support is the May 14th low crossing at 2780.70. Third support is May's low crossing at 2775.40.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed down 20/32's at 178-27.

  

June T-bonds closed lower on Thursday while extending the April-May trading range.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 14th low crossing at 177-14 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the April 22nd high crossing at 183-02 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at 183-02. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 177-26. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at 177-14. 



June T-notes closed down 30-points at 139.010.



June T-notes closed lower on Thursday while extending the April-May trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to low prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.179 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.179. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends a seven-day trading range below the 38%  retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $34.74.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $40.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $28.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $34.74. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $40.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $32.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $28.59. 



July heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $107.30. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.90. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. 



July unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 109.16. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 125.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 109.27. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 125.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.49.  



July Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.999 are needed to confirm  that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.999. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at 2.126. First support is today's low crossing at 1.820. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.802.          



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday and spiked the lower boundary of the March-May trading range crossing at 98.34.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 100.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is today's low crossing at 98.34. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.12. 



The June Euro closed higher on Thursday and poised an upside breakout of the April-May trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 111.08 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 108.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 110.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 111.08. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 108.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 107.74. Third support is April's low crossing at 107.39. 



The June British Pound posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the May 8th high crossing at 1.2470 is the next upside target.If June renews the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 1.2045 is the next downside target.First resistance isthe May 8th high crossing at 1.2470. Second resistance is the April 30th high crossing at 1.2647. First support is May's low crossing at 1.2079. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 1.2045.



The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it extends the April-May trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends Tuesday's rally, May's high crossing at 1.0441 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 24th low crossing at 1.0216 would confirm a downside breakout of the April-May trading range. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.0441. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1.0443. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0216. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0138.



The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 73.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 73.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.11. 



The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951 is the next upside target. First resistance is long-term resistance crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is April's low crossing at  0.0916. Third support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold closed higher on Thursday due to a short covering rally after testing support marked by the 50-day moving average on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at $1676.00 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If April renews the rally off March's low, April's high crossing at $1788.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1775.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1788.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1689.70. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20.



July silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 19.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.423 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 18.134. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 19.075. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.494. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.423.  



July copper closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 237.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 246.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 254.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 237.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 230.42. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed up $0.07-cents at 3.27 1/2. 



July corn closed higher on Thursday due to short-covering and technical buying as ethanol production ramping back up and forecasts pointing to hot, dry weather next week in the western Corn Belt. Spillover strength from higher wheat prices also underpinned today's rally in the corn market. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.28 3/4 and then the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 would signal that low has been posted. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.28 3/4. Second resistance is the April 23rd high crossing at 3.31. First support is April's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.    



July wheat closed up $0.10-cents at $5.14 1/2.  



July wheat closed higher on Thursday on technical buying and short-covering after forecasts hint at hotter, drier weather across the Plains next week. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.24. Second resistance is the 50-day high crossing at $5.31. First support is last-Monday's low crossing  at $4.93 3/4. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2.     



July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.12 1/4-cents at $4.64.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as forecast for hot weather moving into the Plains next week triggered some technical short covering. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.77 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.06-cents at $5.19 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 5.48 1/4. First support the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.        



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down $0.02-cents at $8.46 1/2.



July soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/2. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at $8.77 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal closed up $2.30 at $284.30. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, monthly support crossing at $278.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $287.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. Third resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.70. First support is today's low crossing at $281.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at $278.80.      



July soybean oil closed down 27-pts. At 27.33. 



July soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 27.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.66 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 27.84. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 28.14. First support is May's low crossing at 25.70. Second support is April's low crossing at 25.09. Third support is March's low crossing at 25.02.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $3.25 at $56.92. 



June hogs gapped down and closed lower on Thursday due to sharply lower product trade with cutout down $8.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $55.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $68.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $68.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at  $74.93. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $55.75. Second support is the April 29th low crossing at $54.78.     



June cattle closed up $0.68 at $101.48. 



June cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $101.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.74.    



August Feeder cattle closed up $1.47-cents at $135.50. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $128.22. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.66 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.             



July sugar closed unchanged on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline  crossing at 11.45 is the next upside target.           



July cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 61.06.        

Comments
By metmike - May 28, 2020, 6:41 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks again tallpine!

Weather is still bullish for the grains. Turning very warm(Hot-Plains to WCB) next week and dry. Surprised that it took this long for corn and wheat to finally react. 

Beans were leading the way up all week but had an early set back on non weather related news.


NG weather is still not bullish enough yet.  The heat next week will be mainly where crops are growing not where all the people with air conditioners using electricity(generated by ng) live.