See you later May!
Latest Sunday: Heat ridge develops farther west on forecast models as expected the last week. This is going to allow fronts and upper level perturbations coming over the top, then northeast side of the ridge, to possibly the far east side of the heat ridge to fire up storms in parts of the Cornbelt. There is more rain in the forecast than what we had last week.
The very warm temps include a good chunk of the country but temps are closer to average in the South and East, where the most people live.
Fairly New Still: My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer?
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
This very warm/humid weather could help lessen coronavirus survival times.
Game changing?-Summer kills COVID-19
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/
Warm weather and CV
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52562/
Latest COVID-19 numbers:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52243/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Hot! in the C/S Plains to the Southwest. Some of that heat shifts east but not intense heat there.
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
HOT, especially in the C/S Plains.............spreading east a bit.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Heat is building in the C/S Plains to points southwest and some will spread east associated with a heat ridge aloft.
On the north and east side of the heat ridge fronts will trigger some storms.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Storm clusters eventually develop over the top and northeast side of the heat ridge.........more rains on the maps for this period than models and forecasts showed last week.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Current Dew Points
Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to survive longer.
Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.
It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out April 23rd.......we do know this now with COVID-19.
Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 11, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 11, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Last Wednesday: Fast zonal flow in the northern tier?? The average has that but the pattern might be different.
Thursday: Huge disparity in solutions.
Friday: Will the pattern become amplified and turn bullish?
Saturday: Some solutions amplify and have a heat ridge. Very uncertain.
Sunday: Majority have a heat ridge. Location is key but pattern is becoming more bullish.
Monday: Big heat ridge Plains to start week 2 but half of the solutions on this model break it down by the end of week 2. If it becomes entrenches in that location, it becomes very bullish the grains. If farther east/southeast, it will be more bullish for ng(heat and cooling demand to high population centers vs crops, where not as many people live)
Wendesday: Here come da ridge! Major heat ridge from the Plains eastward with no rain under the ridge. Strong jet and deep trough out west, sending waves eastward around the periphery of the dome with rains possible outside of the ridges rain suppressing influence.
Thursday: A little more than half the members keep the heat ridge strong. The others break it down.
Sunday: Heat Ridge in the Southern 1/3 on most solutions.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 15, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
Sunday: Where will the heat ridge be. Southern Plains is favored on many solutions.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Sunday: Heat ridge moves around. Weakens late in the period.
1 week out below
2 weeks out below
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Sunday: All slightly negative. No huge factor
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Long range outlook:
NEW: My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer?
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/