@kannbwx

Here's the full numbers for last week. #Corn shipments are still doing relatively well while #wheat inspections are barely hanging on over last year (up +0.4% with just 3 days left in 2019/20.

@kannbwx

Reuters reporting that #China is buying U.S. #soybeans today.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Inspections for U.S. #soybeans were on the weaker side last wk, esp. w/ how much there is left to sell/ship by Aug. 31. Since February, there have been only 2 weeks (mid-April) where soy inspections were larger than in the same week in 2019. Fewer shipments to #China recently.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn 74% good/excellent (70% last week)

#Soybeans 70% good/excellent 

Spring #wheat 80% good/excellent (74% last year) Soybeans are 75% planted, slightly below the 2014-2018 average.

From yesterday:

@kannbwx

·

Jun 1

Reuters reporting that #China is buying U.S. #soybeans today.

@kannbwx

1h

Just for anyone that missed my update tweet, USDA corrected today's announcement to unknown destinations, not China, but I still think the odds of it being China are fairly high given the timing of Monday's sales rumors.

@kannbwx

1h

USDA has just corrected this announcement to read that the 186,000 tonnes was sold to unknown destinations instead of #China. I still think there is a pretty decent chance this is China given that we had back-to-back flash sales after reports of China buying on Monday.

@kannbwx

 · 2h

USDA announces sales of 186,000 tonnes of U.S. #soybeans to #China. Some 66,000 will be delivered in 2019/20 and 120,000 in 2020/21. That's 318,000 tonnes to China between today and yesterday, equivalent to 11.7 million bushels.

@kannbwx

#Brazil's exports of #soybeans are still off the charts, mind-blowing actually. 

Govt data suggests May exports came in at 15.5 mmt, which is 55% more than in May 2019. Lots of those to #China, of course.

#Brazil's March-May exports of #soybeans totaled 42.9 mmt or 1.58 billion bushels. 

That is up 37% on the 2018 record and up 54% YOY. 

About 74% of Brazil's Mar-Apr shipments were to #China.

 For comparison, USA is expected to export 1.675 bbu Sep '19-Aug '20.

Has South America run out of Soybeans?

Export sales June 4

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

@kannbwx

U.S. export sales were mostly in line with expectations last week.

#China bought 465kt #soybeans (43% old crop).

 One of the biggest ever sales of #soymeal, incl. 393kt net to the Philippines. Japan and Colombia were the top #corn buyers.

#Corn5.06 mmt (199 mbu; -8% YOY)Best month since April 2019Sep-Apr 25.4 mmt (1 bbu; -35% YOY)May ~5.5-6 mmt

 #Soybeans2.16 mmt (79 mbu; -10% YOY)Worst month since June 2017Sep-Apr 35.2 mmt (1.3 bbu; +6% YOY)May ~1.7-2 mmt

@kannbwx

U.S. #wheat exports totaled 2.36 mmt (87 mbu) in April 2020, -17% YOY. May exports were around 2 mmt, which would place full 19/20 shipments about 1 mmt short of USDA's target of 970 mbu. The data implies 19/20 should land close to 18/19, which was 936 mbu.

USDA's export prediction for U.S. #corn + #soybeans in 2019/20 is 90.7 mln tonnes, down 24% from the 2017/18 high of 120 mmt. 

The 2020/21 forecast is 110.4 mmt, up 22% YOY but off 8% from the high.

@kannbwx·

USDA's export prediction for U.S. #corn + #soybeans in 2019/20 is 90.7 mln tonnes, down 24% from the 2017/18 high of 120 mmt. The 2020/21 forecast is 110.4 mmt, up 22% YOY but off 8% from the high.

@kannbwx

USA exports of #soybeans to #China:April 2020: 423,891 t (-20% YOY)Jan-April 2020: 3.25 mmt (16-year low)Jan-April value: $1.18B (-37% YOY)May likely: ~200,000 t (lowest since Dec 2018)Outstanding 19/20 sales, May 28: 2.22 mmt

U.S. #pork exports to #China, April 2020:112,327 tonnes (ALL-TIME monthly record)+257% from April 2019Prior record 102,177 (Dec 2019) Jan-Apr pork exports to China:392,834 t+221% on prior Jan-Apr high (2012)More than any full-year volume prior to 2019 (575k)

Net sales of U.S. #pork to #China have slowed down over the past month. Sales in week to 5/28 were 3.4kt, total sales to China = 467kt. #Beef sales to China have surged vs prior years, but total sales (~11kt) are light compared w/ pork. Just 2% of total 2020 sales are to China.