INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 4, 2020, 8:08 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, June 4, 2020 



7:30 AM ET. May Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +202%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons)



8:30 AM ET. 1St Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs



                       Non-Farm Productivity (previous +1.2%)



                       Unit Labor Costs (previous +0.9%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (previous 2123K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -323K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 21052000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -3860K)



8:30 AM ET. April U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -44.42B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 187.75B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous -9.6%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 232.16B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous -6.2%)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2612B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +109B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. May Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, June 5, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. May U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous -20500K)



                       Unemployment Rate (previous 14.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.01)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M%



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y%



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.2)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -980K)



                       Private Payroll (previous -19520K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 60.2%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



3:00 PM ET. April Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous -12.1B)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading after recent gains pushed the Nasdaq Composite to within 2% of its all-time high as traders are optimistic about the restart to the U.S. and world economies following coronavirus closures. Investors will be watching weekly U.S. jobless claims to determine whether the worst of the impact of the virus outbreak is over. Investors are also waiting on a policy decision from the European Central Bank later in the morning that could influence trading in U.S. assets. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 9780.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9363.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First  resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9728.25. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9780.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  9363.38. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off  March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2964.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3125.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2964.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2825.10. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower is possible near-term. Multiple closes below April's low crossing at 177-14 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range. Closes above the May 15th high crossing at 182-15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the May 15th high crossing at 182-15. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Third resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is April's low crossing at 177-14. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05.  



June T-notes were slightly higher overnight while extending the April-May trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 139.170 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 139.170. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 138.150. Second support is the May 6th low crossing at 138.085. Third support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.    



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $34.74.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $31.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $38.18. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $31.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $28.68.  



July heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $110.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. Third resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $124.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.05. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. Third support is April's low crossing at $74.39.    



July unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $113.52. Second resistance is the 50%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.61.  



July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.903 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.903. Second resistance is the May 19th high crossing at 2.027. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.742. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $96.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.48. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.18. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $97.16. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $96.88. 



The June Euro was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $113.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $112.61. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $113.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.73. 



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the April 14th high crossing at 1.2653 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2322 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.2616. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.2653. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2322. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2079.



The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher in late-overnight trading while extending the April-May trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 30th high  crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  1.0339 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0449. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0339. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.0216.



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 74.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.18.



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.0943. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1736.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1690.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.  



July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.252 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.252. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.012. 



July copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.5468 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4113 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.5050. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.5468. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4113. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3361. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-June trading range and open the door for additional short covering gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21  would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.26 1/2. Second resistance is the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31. First support is April's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.    



July wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening  when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling  that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 21st high crossing at $5.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, last-September's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 21st high crossing at $5.24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.29. First support is the May 18th low crossing at $4.93 3/4. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.81.



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76 1/4 is the next upside target. If July renews Tuesday's decline, May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second support is March's lowcrossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.23. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage  for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 20th crossing at $5.27 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.10 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May 20th high crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.15 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the April-May trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at $8.61 1/4 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-May trading range. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $8.61 1/4. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at $8.77 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $278.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. Third resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 293.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $281.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at $278.80.     



July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.79 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above April's high crossing at 28.14 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. First resistance is April's high crossing at 28.14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.79. Second support is May's low crossing at 25.70. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $1.08 at $53.80. 



June hogs closed lower on Wednesday and is challenging the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $61.17. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $66.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.     



August cattle closed up $1.38 at $97.58. 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $96.00 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is today's low crossing at $95.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.89.    



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.98-cents at $134.40. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline  crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.24. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.46 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.              



July sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.         

Comments
By metmike - June 4, 2020, 11:53 a.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine!


Week 2 grains weather increasingly bullish.

After some decent rain chances, then cooler temps, we may dry out and heat up during week 2. Still chances for rain in the Upper Midwest then though.

The heat will NOT be concentrated where most of the people live in the East, at least initially so its not bullish ng.....yet.