INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 5, 2020, 8:22 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, June 5, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. May U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous -20500K)



                       Unemployment Rate (previous 14.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.01)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M%



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y%



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.2)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -980K)



                       Private Payroll (previous -19520K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 60.2%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



3:00 PM ET. April Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous -12.1B)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher in overnight trading as investors look to a labor-market report that could reflect soaring unemployment even as the data signals a decelerating pace of job losses in coronavirus-stricken America. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 9780.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  9389.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 9742.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9780.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  9389.50. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off  March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2977.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3142.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2977.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2838.48. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower is possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 180-13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the May 15th high crossing at 182-15. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Third resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the overnight low crossing at 174-19. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05.  



June T-notes were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 139.170 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 139.170. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the overnight low crossing at 137.285. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.    



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off April's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $32.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $38.46. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $32.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $28.88.  



July heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $111.50. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. Third resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $124.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.27. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. Third support is April's low crossing at $74.39.    



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $118.44. Second resistance is the 50%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.60.  



July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.888 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.888. Second resistance is the May 19th high crossing at 2.027. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.742. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it  consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at $96.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74. 



The June Euro was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $114.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $113.86. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.04. 



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2339 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.2692. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2428. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2339.



The June Swiss Franc was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  1.0349 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0483. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0349. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0230.



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 74.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.32.



The June Japanese Yen was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0928 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0928. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0914. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower in overnight trading as it the April-June trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1735.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1690.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.  



July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.364 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.364. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.075. 



July copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.6686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4196 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.5468. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.6686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4196. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3427. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Thehigh-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-June trading range and open the door for additional short covering gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.     



July wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening  when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.28 1/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $5.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.06 1/2. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at $5.01 1/4.



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 3/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Third support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage  for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 21st crossing at $5.27 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May 21st high crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/2. Second support is May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher overnight as it extends Thursday's upside breakout of the April-May trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.47 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high  crossing at $8.73 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.47 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Third support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally,  the 50-day moving average crossing at $293.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $285.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $293.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $285.20. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.      



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above April's high crossing at 28.14 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.82 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 28.14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.82. Second support is May's low crossing at 25.70. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $1.08 at $53.80. 



June hogs closed lower on Wednesday and is challenging the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $61.17. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $66.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.     



August cattle closed up $1.38 at $97.58. 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $96.00 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is today's low crossing at $95.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.89.    



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.98-cents at $134.40. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline  crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.24. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.46 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.              



July sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.         

Comments
By metmike - June 5, 2020, 12:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


No sustained heat for the high population centers of the Midwest/East/South to help natural gas prices by increasing demand for air conditioning generated from burning natural gas at power plants.

Grains weather is potentially bullish but tricky. Turning drier but before that happens, the remnants of TS Cystobal will dump a ton of rain on the Eastern to Central Cornbelt, also a front in the Western/Upper Midwest and also cool initially when we go into our long stretch of dry weather, starting late week 1.

So its bullish for areas that miss rains the next 5 days.......depending on Cystobal and also, when we heat back up later in June, will the rains return?