Week in Review
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Started by TimNew - June 5, 2020, 10:57 a.m.


Interesting week, to say the least.

Factory Orders were slammed in April.   But it appears the older data will look bad/worse than the current.

April Contruction spending was also down from the previous month,  but up from a year ago.

I was disappointed to see a drop in Retail.  I expect that trend to reverse sooner than later.

PMI and ISM both showed a better outlook for both MFG and Service.  I put more weight on ISM. As a reminder, 50 is considered unchanged,  below is contraction and above is expansion.

The real discussion this week is employment.  There is often a divergence between ADP and BLS, but this month was HUGE.  Also a HUGE surprise in the BLS Employment situation of +2.5 MILLION.  I would have bet strongly against a positive report but never in a million years would I have dreamed of +2.5 million.  It will be interesting to see what we get next month.  Color me skeptical on this.  Side note..   Will Wall Street revert to Fed Watch Mode?

Based on the overall ratings,   I could go with a C+ this week giving weight to the Employment #'s,  but in view of all the data out there,  I'll go with a conservative C- as I am a little skeptical.   I will downgrade the suck factor to 8.



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