INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 5, 2020, 5:02 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, June 8, 2020 



10:00 AM ET. May Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 43.43)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade



11:00 AM ET. World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow gapped up and closed up over 800-points on Friday after jobs report shows surprise jump in payrolls, fall in unemployment rate. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening  when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,868.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the  February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,665.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,868.31.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday and above February's high crossing at 9780.50 as it extends the rally off March's low into record high territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9397.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9846.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9397.90. Second support is the May 27th low  crossing at 9172.50.    



The June S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of  the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2979.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3172.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2979.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2839.28.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed down 31/32's at 174-21.

  

June T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-27 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 178-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-27. First support is  the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25.



June T-notes closed down 170-points at 137.215.



June T-notes closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the March 24th low crossing at 136.030 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.068 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is today's low crossing at 137.040. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.030.         



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $40.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $32.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $39.68. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $40.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $32.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $28.89. 



July heating oil closed higher on Friday and above the 25% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $107.30 as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $115.26. Second resistance is April's high crossing at$118.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.42. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. 



July unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally above the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 109.16. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 125.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 121.70. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 125.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 88.66.  



July Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.887 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.887. Second resistance is the May 19th high crossing at 2.027. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.742. Second support is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519.          



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.00. First support is today's low crossing at 96.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.74. 



The June Euro closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 113.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 113.86. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.27. Second support is the 20-day  moving average crossing at 110.02.

 

The June British Pound closed higher for the seventh-day in a row on Friday as it extends the rally off  May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night  session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2761 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2340 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2732. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2761. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2431. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2340.



The June Swiss Franc posted a key reversal down on Friday as it extends the April-May trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0347 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends May's rally, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0483. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0347. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0230.



The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement  level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.67. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.33. 



The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0928 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0924. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0928. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed lower on Friday as an unexpected monthly rise in U.S. jobs and a drop in the nation’s unemployment rate rallied the stock market, pushing prices for the haven metal to their lowest finish in two months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00 is the next upside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $1761.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1789.00. First support is today's low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.



July silver closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.349 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average  crossing at 17.349. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.069.  



July copper closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 266.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 241.97 would signal that a short-term top  has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 257.15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 266.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 241.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 234.28. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed up $0.02 1/4 cents at 3.31 1/4. 



July corn closed higher on Friday and above the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 would signal that low has been posted.  Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21 3/4 would temper the neutral to friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 7th high crossing at 3.40 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.    



July wheat closed down $0.08 1/2-cents at $5.15 1/4.  



July wheat closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 21st high crossing at $5.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day high crossing at $5.28. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.10 3/4-cents at $4.61 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 1/2 would open the door for a test of May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second support is March's lowcrossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $5.18 3/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $5.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.        



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed up $0.00 1/2-cent at $8.68 1/4.



July soybeans closed fractionally higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.47 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82. First support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal closed down $0.50 at $289.30. 



July soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $293.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $285.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $293.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $285.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.      



July soybean oil closed up 44-pts. At 28.26. 



July soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics  and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 28.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.82. Second support is May's low crossing at 25.70.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.73 at $54.30. 



July hogs closed higher on Friday as it bounced off the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $57.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $61.17. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $66.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.     



August cattle closed down $1.18 at $96.75. 



August cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at $95.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is today's low crossing at $95.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.88.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.85-cents at $133.88. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline  crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher  opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.             



July sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        

Comments
By metmike - June 8, 2020, 12:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Average to below average temps in the high population Midwest, East and South the next 10 day is bearish natural gas. Seasonals turn down here also...........we have not been tracking strong seasonals at all this Spring. 

Grains a tricky.

Widespread dry weather after around day 4 in the forecast. At this time of year, that could be pretty bullish.However, temps will be cool in to average in the Cornbelt and there is a huge rain coming up to key areas in the belt from the remnants of  fast moving Crystobal.

Mostly falling Tue/Wed in the Cornbelt. Moving fast enough to not causing real major flooding problems.


Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.



TS Crystobal, then remnants will dump heavy rains along the path(200 miles wide?) as it tracks north next week. 


Day 1 below:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

                                    

                                    

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


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8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability