INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 8, 2020, 7:47 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, June 8, 2020 



10:00 AM ET. May Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 43.43)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade



11:00 AM ET. World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report



Tuesday, June 9, 2020  



N/A 3rd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey



6:00 AM ET. May NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism



                       Small Business Idx (expected 92.0; previous 90.9)



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -3.1%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -15.1%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.4%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.5%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -7.2%)



10:00 AM ET. April Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey



10:00 AM ET. April Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.8%)



10:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting



10:00 AM ET. June IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index



                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 49.7)



                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.3)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.5M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.9M)



  N/A              U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as Wall Street equities looked to add to a rally toward records for the Nasdaq Composite that concluded trade last week on the back of improving economic data in the face of a viral outbreak. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling  that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  9427.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9875.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  94727.25. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off  March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2993.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3208.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2993.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2851.29. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower is possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the May 15th high crossing at 182-15. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Third resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-25.



June T-notes were steady to lower overnight as it extends last- week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last- Monday's high crossing at 139.170 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.262. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 139.170. Third resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.295.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off April's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $33.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $36.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $33.03.  



July heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $118.24. Second resistance is  April's high crossing at $118.84. Third resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $124.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.49. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. Third support is April's low crossing at $74.39.    



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.01.  



July Henry natural gas was lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.872 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.872. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.995. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.742. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it  consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $97.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.84. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $96.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74. 



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $114.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $113.86. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.24. 



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2352 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2732. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2479. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2352.



The June Swiss Franc was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0351 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0483. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0351. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0230.



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 74.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.47.



The June Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0923. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher in overnight trading as it extends the April-June trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1733.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1690.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.  



July silver was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.455 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.455. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.134. 



July copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.6686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4271 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.5468. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.6686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4271. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3503. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Last Friday's close above the April 23rd high crossing at $3.31 signals an upside breakout of the April-June trading range and open the door for additional short covering gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.22 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance  is the overnight high crossing at $3.34 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.22 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.     



July wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening  when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.06 1/2. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at $5.01 1/4.



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Third support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the May 21st crossing at $5.27 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the May 21st high crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/4. Second support is May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's upside breakout of the April-May trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Third support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a  steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's rally,  the 50-day moving average crossing at $292.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $285.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $292.70. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $285.60. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.      



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above April's high crossing at 28.14 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.85 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 28.14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.85. Second support is May's low crossing at 25.70. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.73 at $54.30. 



July hogs closed higher on Friday as it bounced off the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $57.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $61.17. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $66.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.     



August cattle closed down $1.18 at $96.75. 



August cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at $95.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is today's low crossing at $95.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.88.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.85-cents at $133.88. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline  crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher  opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.             



July sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        

Comments
By metmike - June 8, 2020, 1:30 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Grains: The weather is bullish from late this week onward..............but a big rain from the remnants of Crystobal before then is stifling the bullishness, along with rains from a cold front to the north early this week. 


No sustained heat for the high population centers of the Midwest/East/South until, possibly the 2nd half of June. A bit bearish for ng at the moment.

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.



TS Crystobal remnants will dump heavy rains along a fairly narrow path(200 miles wide?) as it tracks north the next 2.5 to  3 days. 


Day 1 below:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971