KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 717.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 296.0)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +5.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3166.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -8.6%)
8:30 AM ET. May Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. May CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -0.8%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -0.4%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -10.1%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +5.8%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.4%)
10:00 AM ET. May Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 532.345M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.077M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.795M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.795M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 174.261M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +9.934M)
Refinery Usage (previous 71.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 15.066M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.892M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate – 2020
Median Fed Funds Rate – 2021
Median Fed Funds Rate – 2022
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 0.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 AM ET. May Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
2:00 AM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
Thursday, June 11, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1595K; previous 1877K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -249K)
Continuing Claims (previous 21487000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +649K)
8:30 AM ET. May PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -1.3%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -1.2%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 665K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1102.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 617K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2714B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, June 12, 2020
8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous -2.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -33%)
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.0; previous 73.7)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 83.0)
Monday, June 15, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -48.5)
Employment Idx (previous -6.1)
New Orders Idx (previous -42.4)
Prices Received (previous -7.4)
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9511.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10016.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9511.26. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.
The June S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3026.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3227.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3127.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3026.86.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-21. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 182-15. third resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25.
June T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.265 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.265. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 139.170. Third resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.295.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was lower due to profit taking in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $36.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.21.
July heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $118.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. Third resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $124.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.85. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. Third support is April's low crossing at $74.39.
July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $113.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.57.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it renewed the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.845 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.845. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.989. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.674. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $97.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at $96.06. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74.
The June Euro was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $113.86. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.77.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3044 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2401 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2577. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2401.
The June Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading and tested the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0364 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0579. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0439. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0378.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 74.87. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.82.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0930. Second resistance is the May 29th high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher in overnight trading as it extends the April-June trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1734.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.
July silver was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.675 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.675. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.271.
July copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.6686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4538 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.6260. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.6686. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5127. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4538.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.34 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.
July wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.00 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Third support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally high in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 21st crossing at $5.27 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17. Second support is May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.49. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Third support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.
July soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $291.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $291.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.90 Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above April's high crossing at 28.14 would confirm an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.39 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 28.14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.39.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $0.73 at $54.30.
July hogs closed higher on Friday as it bounced off the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $57.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $61.17. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $66.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.
August cattle closed down $1.18 at $96.75.
August cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at $95.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is today's low crossing at $95.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.88.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.85-cents at $133.88.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!!
Interesting weather coming up for grains.
After today, rains will be shut down in the Cornbelt for 10 days, possibly longer........but with cool temps that offset the bullishness but it is still bullish.
If the heat returns during the 2nd half of the month, will rain chances increase?
1. If heat returns without much rain........it becomes very bullish and we make new highs.
2. If heat returns with rains increasing, then it could go either way but maybe more bullish at first, until the rains get here.
3. If heat doesn't return and it stays dry, it will still be bullish but take longer to go up.
4. If heat doesn't return and rains return with a northwest flow pattern, it turns very bearish.
Natural gas is more clear.
If heat returns to the high population centers of the Midwest/East/South its bullish.
If not, its bearish.
There is a enough heat in the 2nd half of June on some models so that the forecast right now is a tad bullish...........some warmer key models overnight helped ng to reverse higher from steep losses but this could be temporary.
There are other factors going on too.