INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 10, 2020, 3:38 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, June 11, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 1595K; previous 1877K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -249K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 21487000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +649K)



8:30 AM ET. May PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -1.3%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -0.3%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous -1.2%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 665K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1102.6K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 617K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2714B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, June 12, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous -2.6%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous -33%)



10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.0; previous 73.7)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.7)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 83.0)



Monday, June 15, 2020



8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous -48.5)



                       Employment Idx (previous -6.1)



                       New Orders Idx (previous -42.4)



                       Prices Received (previous -7.4)



4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed lower on Wednesday due to losses from Boeing, Exxon and Mobil. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's gap crossing at 26,384.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the  February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is last-Friday's gap crossing at 26,384.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,353.87.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low into record high territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9518.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 10,145.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9518.19. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.    



The June S&P 500 posted an inside day with a higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of  the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3027.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3227.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3128.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3027.65.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 1-16/32's at 177-14.

  

June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-16 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 177-06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-16. First support is  the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25.



June T-notes closed up 255-points at 138.275.



June T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's short covering rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.268 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last-week's decline, the March 24th low crossing at 136.295 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 137.040. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.295.         



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $45.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $40.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $45.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $29.51. 



July heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $118.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.95. Second support is the May 29th low crossing at $95.62. 



July unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 125.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 125.29. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.57.  



July Henry natural gas posted an upside reversal on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.849 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 1.519 on the weekly continuation chart is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.849. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.990. First support is today's low crossing at 1.674. Second support is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519.          



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.43. First support is today's low crossing at 95.97. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.74. 



The June Euro closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up and extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 113.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 113.97. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.78.

 

The June British Pound closed higher for the tenth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off  May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night  session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2402 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2804. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2579. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2402.



The June Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Wednesday marking an upside breakout of the April-May trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends May's rally, the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0380 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0610. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0649. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0380.



The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling  that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day  moving average crossing at 72.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.11. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.84. 



The June Japanese Yen closed higher for the third-day in a row on Wednesday. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0935. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0944. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1789.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.



July silver closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.685 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.685. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.276.  



July copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 245.73 would signal that a short-term top  has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 269.55. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 251.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 245.73. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.01 1/4-cents at 3.26 1/4. 



July corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that  a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 1/4 would temper the neutral to friendly outlook. If July renews the rally off April's low, the April 7th high crossing at $3.40 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 7th high crossing at 3.40 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.    



July wheat closed up $0.03-cents at $5.07 1/2.  



July wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.29. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.00 1/4-cents at $4.58.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.73 1/2 would open the door for a test of May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.73 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second support is March's lowcrossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.04 3/4 at $5.19 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $5.16 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.        



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed up $0.03-cents at $8.66 1/4.



July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82. First support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal closed up $1.70 at $288.80. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $291.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $291.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.90. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.      



July soybean oil closed down 17-pts. At 28.06. 



July soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.38 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 28.47. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.88.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.05 at $53.03. 



July hogs closed slightly higher on Wednesday but remains below the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $54.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.10. First support is today's low crossing at $51.57. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.     



August cattle closed down $0.95 at $96.85. 



August cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $95.60 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $95.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.20.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $1.40-cents at $132.85. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline  crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.54. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.18 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.               



July sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target.         

Comments
By metmike - June 11, 2020, 1:30 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


WASDE report out 11 am Thursday.  Weather is dry the next week, cool at first then heating up. In week 2, much of the crop will need rain as we heat up. Potential to turn bullish if rains don't return within a few days of the heat coming in. 

EIA weekly report for ng expected to be bearish at 9:30am Thursday

Heat comes in next week. How long will it last?