KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 11, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1595K; previous 1877K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -249K)
Continuing Claims (previous 21487000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +649K)
8:30 AM ET. May PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -1.3%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -1.2%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 665K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1102.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 617K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2714B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, June 12, 2020
8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous -2.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -33%)
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.0; previous 73.7)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 83.0)
Monday, June 15, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -48.5)
Employment Idx (previous -6.1)
New Orders Idx (previous -42.4)
Prices Received (previous -7.4)
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower in overnight trading as investors reacted to signs of an increase in cases of coronavirus and the Federal Reserve’s bearish outlook of the domestic economy, even as the central bank held rates steady and projected interest rates would be held near zero levels until at least 2022. The Fed’s estimates that the economy will contract by anywhere between 4% and 10% in 2020. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9563.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 10155.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9563.88. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.
The June S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3041.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3227.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3135.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3041.90.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-21. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 182-15. third resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25.
June T-notes gapped up and were higher as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.191 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.191. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 139.170. Third resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 137.040. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.295.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was lower due to profit taking in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $37.44. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.87.
July heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $118.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. Third resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $124.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.26. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $84.87. Third support is April's low crossing at $74.39.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $115.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.05.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.843 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.843. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.987. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.674. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $94.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $97.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.22. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.53.
The June Euro was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $114.24. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.04.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3044 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2422 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2609. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2422.
The June Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading as it extends this month's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0395 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0639. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0465. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0395.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.09. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.97.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0936. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0944. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0924. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0910.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower in overnight trading as it extends the April-June trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1735.40 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this week's rally, last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.
July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.810 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.810. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.357.
July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7793 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4702 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.7000. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7793. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5399. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4702.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.34 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.
July wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.00 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.72 1/2 would open the door for additional gains near-term.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.72 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Third support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 6th high crossing at $5.29 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 6th high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17 1/4. Second support is May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.50 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.50 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Third support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.
July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $290.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $290.80. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.80 Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 28.47. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.89.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $0.73 at $54.30.
July hogs closed higher on Friday as it bounced off the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $57.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $61.17. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $66.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $53.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.
August cattle closed down $1.18 at $96.75.
August cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at $95.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is today's low crossing at $95.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.88.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.85-cents at $133.88.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.21. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
The weather looks friendly for the grains to me.......though rains may start returning during week 2, along with the heat but very dry in week 1 is bullish.
A bit bullish too for ng with some of the heat spreading across the country to areas with alot of people.
That week 1 forecast period has been dry all month, so maybe its already dialed into the price here and the market could be looking beyond that and the potential for rains to return in week 2.
Outside markets..........CL and Dow are a big drag today.