INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 11, 2020, 4:49 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, June 12, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous -2.6%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous -33%)



10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.0; previous 73.7)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.7)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 83.0)



Monday, June 15, 2020



8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous -48.5)



                       Employment Idx (previous -6.1)



                       New Orders Idx (previous -42.4)



                       Prices Received (previous -7.4)



4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as U.S. coronavirus cases rise along with the Fed’s bearish economic outlook. Today's gap down left a four-day island top on the daily chart thereby increasing the odds that the rebound off March's low has likely come to an end. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish with today's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,248.71 is the next downside target. If today's gap crossing at 26,938.05 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 26,938.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the  February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29. Third resistance is January's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is today's low crossing at 25,082.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,248.71.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday due to renewed concerns over the Covid-19 virus and a bleak economic outlook for the U.S. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9546.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has  been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 10,145.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9546.09. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9172.50.    



The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3035.66 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of  the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3227.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3257.79. First support is today's low crossing at 3010.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2885.78.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 2-04/32's at 179-21.

  

June T-bonds closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-22 would confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-22. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 182-15. First support is  the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25.



June T-notes closed up 140-points at 139.100.



June T-notes gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 21st high crossing at 139.220 would mark an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.211 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.211. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 137.040. Third support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.295.         



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed lower on Thursday as a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and a gloomy economic outlook from the Federal Reserve lowered prospects for energy demand. Additional pressure came from recent U.S. government data showed a weekly rise in domestic crude supplies.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $45.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $40.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $45.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $34.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $29.68. 



July heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $118.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.90. Second support is the May 29th low crossing at $95.62. 



July unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.66 would confirm that  a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 125.29. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.38.  



July Henry natural gas was higher on Thursday following Wednesday's upside reversal. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.845 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 1.519 on the weekly continuation chart is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.845. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.988. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.674. Second support is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519.          



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.24. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.74.  Second support is March's low crossing at 94.53. 



The June Euro closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging  but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 113.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 113.97. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.01.

 

The June British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday ending a 10-day rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2418 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.If June extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044 is the next upside target.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.2804. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2418. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2079.



The June Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's upside breakout  of the April-May trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends May's rally, the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0394 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0666. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0464. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0394.



The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.11. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.89. 



The June Japanese Yen closed higher for the fourth-day in a row on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and  the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0944. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1789.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.



July silver closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.796. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.796 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 19.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.796. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.351.  



July copper closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 246.72 would signal that a short-term top  has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 270.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 253.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 246.71. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at 3.29 1/2. 



July corn closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 3/4 would temper the neutral to friendly outlook. If July renews the rally off April's low, the April 7th high crossing at $3.40 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 7th high crossing at 3.40 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.23 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.    



July wheat closed down $0.07-cents at $4.99 1/4.  



July wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.29. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $4.81 1/2.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.11 1/4-cents at $4.46 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday and below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $4.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, May's low crossing at $4.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.72 1/2 would open the door for a test of May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.72 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4. Second support is March's lowcrossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06 1/4 at $5.13 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.        



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $8.66 1/4.



July soybeans closed fractionally higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.50 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82. First support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.      



July soybean meal closed up $0.90 at $289.70. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $290.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $290.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $285.90. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.      



July soybean oil closed down 53-pts. At 28.06. 



July soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 28.47. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.88.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $0.65 at $52.15. 



July hogs closed lower on Thursday extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $54.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.75. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $51.57. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.     



August cattle closed down $0.38 at $96.13. 



August cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $95.60 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $95.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.25.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $1.18-cents at $131.50. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $133.96 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $129.61. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.14 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.73 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, May's low crossing at 23.18 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.               



July sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target.        

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