KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 15, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -48.5)
Employment Idx (previous -6.1)
New Orders Idx (previous -42.4)
Prices Received (previous -7.4)
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +4.4%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -12.6%)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -16.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -17.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -16.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -3.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -9.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -9.7%)
9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous -11.2%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 64.9%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -8.3)
10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous -0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 37)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +8.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.3M)
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 784.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +9.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 311.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +5.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3529.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +11.4%)
8:30 AM ET. May New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 0.891M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -30.2%)
Building Permits (previous 1.074M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -20.8%)
10:30 AM ET. Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 538.065M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.72M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 258.661M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.866M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 175.829M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.568M)
Refinery Usage (previous 73.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.573M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.507M)
Thursday, June 18, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -43.1)
Prices Paid (previous 3.2)
Employment (previous -15.3)
New Orders (previous -25.7)
Prices Received (previous -3.1)
Delivery Times (previous -6.7)
Inventories (previous 11.7)
Shipments (previous -30.3)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims, Net Chg
Continuing Claims
Continuing Claims, Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -4.4%)
Leading Index (previous 98.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous -8.9%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +4.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, June 19, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (previous -109.82B)
10:00 AM ET. May Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading on concern over rising coronavirus infections, just as many countries begin opening up after lockdowns. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9576.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 10140.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9576.92. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9167.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it the decline off June's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high the 50-day moving average crossing at 2897.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3102.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2897.02. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 2804.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 177-08 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-18. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 182-15. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 173-05. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25.
June T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off June's low, the May 15th high crossing at 139.210 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 139.170. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 139.210. First support is June's low crossing at 137.040. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 136.295.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends the rally off April's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $35.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $40.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $45.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $35.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $30.02.
July heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $118.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $118.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $118.84. Third resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $124.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.18.
July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $125.43. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.95.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.834 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.834. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.983. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.674. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $94.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.15. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.74. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.53.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $114.24. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $109.79.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2417 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3044 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2761. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2417. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161.
The June Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of last-Friday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0414 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0666. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0480. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0414.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.99.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0944. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0910.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower in overnight trading as it extends the April-June trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, is the June 1st high crossing at $1761.00 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is the June 5th low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.
July silver was lower overnight as it resumes the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 22nd low crossing at $17.190 would confirm a downside breakout of the May-June head-and-shoulders top. If July renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is the May 22nd low crossing at $17.190. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.472.
July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4909 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7793 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2.7000. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7793. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4909. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3916.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Thehigh-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.25 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.34 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.25. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.
July wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.22. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $5.32 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.95 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.93 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.71 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.71 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $4.44. Second support is May's low crossing at $4.38 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 6th high crossing at $5.29 3/4 would renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the June 6th high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2. Third support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2.
July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $295.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $290.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.00 Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.56 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 28.47. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.91.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $0.50 at $51.62.
July hogs closed lower on Friday extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $53.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.39. First support is today's low crossing at $51.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-May rally crossing at $51.19.
August cattle closed down $1.28 at $95.18.
August cattle closed lower on Friday filling the May 7th gap crossing at $95.45. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below Tuesday's low crossing at $95.60 marks a downside breakout of the May-June trading range. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the May 7th gap crossing at $95.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.37.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.15-cents at $135.35.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at $138.80. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $128.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $128.63. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.08 would confirm that a low has been posted.
July cocoa closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Thursday's decline, May's low crossing at 23.18 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 25.69 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather models have turned pretty bearish since late Sunday.
Cooler temps, especially in week 2..........after some heat during this current week. When the cooler air approaches this week, it will trigger some big rain in some key areas of the Central Cornbelt, with the epicenter of heavy rains, around the most important state on the planet for grains.........Iowa.
Cooler temps are clearly bearish for natural gas. The European model had been warmer on Sunday but the last 0z run, overnight for instance, lost a massive 8 Cooling Degree Days!